(http://i.imgur.com/aKBWxPv.png)
A very unsettled week with cold temperatures, a Nor’Easter, and mostly hazardous water conditions. Monday will be sunny with increasing clouds. A powerful Winter Storm/Nor’Easter will move through the area off the coast on Monday Night through Tuesday Night bringing cold temperatures, snow, high winds, moderate coastal flooding, high seas, high surf, and beach erosion. Snow will taper off by Tuesday Night with snow showers possible on Wednesday and then again on Friday. Thursday looks to be dry. Highs all week will be in the 20’s and 30’s, maybe some 40’s along the coast with lows in the teens to 30’s. Water conditions will be HAZARDOUS Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then cautious on Thursday, and borderline on Friday. Water temperatures are steady. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 0-5/15.
High pressure builds across the region through tonight before moving offshore on Monday. Low pressure develops off the Carolinas Monday night, then becomes an intense storm east of New Jersey Tuesday, before tracking past New England Tuesday night. A strong northwest flow follows Wednesday. High pressure then builds across the region
Wednesday night through Friday. Another storm system is possible next weekend.
MONDAY & TUESDAY Winter Storm/Nor’Easter
Snow will begin Monday Night and continue through Tuesday Night with the heaviest snow early on Tuesday and Tuesday during the day. Snowfall totals will really depend on storm track, as two low pressure systems will merge transferring all the energy to the system coming out of the Southeast and strengthening into a powerful coastal storm. Again, track will be the difference between how much snowfall is received. The greatest snowfall amounts will be across inland New Jersey and Pennsylvania, then New York, Long Island, up into the Northeast. Coastal Areas could see the least amount of snow, generally south and east of the I95 Corridor, but this cut off could move even farther south and/or east. The cut off will be pretty sharp with snow changing over to rain and north and west of this cut off/rain/snow line 6+ inches. Areas could see up to 18 inches of snow. Again, just 100 miles either way, will be a completely different game. In addition to crippling amounts of snow, winds will gust to 50+ mph with coastal areas seeing 60 mph winds. Moderate Coastal Flooding is likely as well with tides running 1-2 feet above High Astronomical Tide levels across the state. High surf up to 10+ feet, high seas to 18+ feet, and beach erosion are all likely. Downed trees and powerlines are likely with this storm. Now is the time to prepare and be ready. Forecasts will change over the next 24-36 hours and I will update this tomorrow evening. Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Watches, Blizzard Watches, Coastal Flood Watches, High Wind Watches, and Storm & Gale Warnings have all been posted for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
NWS Philadelphia Briefing on Monday-Tuesday Winter Storm (http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf)
The weekend will have chances of snow showers, mainly on Saturday, but also on Sunday. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Water conditions will be good to borderline.
Have a great week and thanks for reading!
Monday
Sky: Partly to mostly sunny becoming cloudy
Precipitation: 100% Chance of Snow at night
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 30’s
Low: Mid to upper 20’s inland, low to mid 30’s at the shore, low 20’s for northern areas
UV Index: 3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:11am
Sunset: 7:00pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaningGibbous.jpg)
Tuesday
Sky: Cloudy
Precipitation: 100% Chance of Snow all day, tapering off by night
Temperatures
High: Low 20’s to mid 30’s inland, upper 30’s to low 40’s at the shore
Low: Low 20’s inland, mid 20’s at the shore, upper teens for northern areas
UV Index: 0-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:10am
Sunset: 7:01pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaningGibbous.jpg)
Wednesday
Sky: Mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 20%-40% Chance of Snow Showers all day
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 30’s
Low: Upper teens to low 20’s inland, low to mid 20’s at the shore, mid teens for northern areas
UV Index: 3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 7:02pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaningGibbous.jpg)
Thursday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: 0%-Slight Chance
Temperatures
High: Low to upper 30’s
Low: Upper teens to low 20’s, Mid to upper 20’s at the shore, low teens for northern areas
UV Index: 3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 7:03pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaningGibbous.jpg)
Friday
Sky: Mostly sunny to sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 0%-30% chance of snow showers during the day
Temperatures
High: Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low: Mid 20’s inland, upper 20’s at the shore, low 20’s for northern areas
UV Index: 3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 7:05pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaningGibbous.jpg)
Monday Surface Analysis
(http://i.imgur.com/cDYtLu9.gif)
Tuesday Surface Analysis
(http://i.imgur.com/1bbX048.gif)
Wednesday Surface Analysis
(http://i.imgur.com/7MJnX1F.gif)
Thursday Surface Analysis
(http://i.imgur.com/JDROESX.gif)
Friday Surface
(http://i.imgur.com/N2wBHD3.gif)
Total Precipitation Monday - Friday
(http://i.imgur.com/3vSYNft.gif)
Total Precipitation Monday - Monday
(http://i.imgur.com/XBhafxH.gif)
Storm Tracks
(http://i.imgur.com/lQnSgTE.gif)
(http://i.imgur.com/KfmUkHa.gif)
Forecast Snow Totals
(http://i.imgur.com/WJhWavk.png)
(http://i.imgur.com/NCU0hiB.png)
Minimum Snowfall
(http://i.imgur.com/2ump0FP.png)
(http://i.imgur.com/SEUl3nU.png)
Maximum Snowfall
(http://i.imgur.com/aA2ASKJ.png)
(http://i.imgur.com/Eugrk8T.png)
Tide/Flooding Forecast
(http://i.imgur.com/OZrobWr.gif)
(http://i.imgur.com/DBz2i6P.gif)
(http://i.imgur.com/levn2H3.gif)
Sea Surface Temperatures
Surface
(http://i.imgur.com/iM0gdnj.png)
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
(http://i.imgur.com/wWkxn50.png)
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/sst/Ncom_sst_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/currents/Ncom_Curr_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
Ocean Currents
Surface
(http://i.imgur.com/N222AR6.png)
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
(http://i.imgur.com/tyr3FDN.png)
Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!
(http://www.njsaltwaterfisherman.com/buoyweather.jpg) (http://www.buoyweather.com)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/WRN_Ambassador_logo_zps6058c93c.jpg) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/WRN_Ambassador_logo_zps6058c93c.jpg.html)
*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]
*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)