NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: May 19-23, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

A typical Spring week with chances of showers and thunderstorms most of the week with good water conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are possible every day this week, except for Friday. Monday and Tuesday will have very low chances of isolated or scattered showers with more sun than clouds. Tuesday Night, Wednesday and Thursday Day will have the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms, still Tuesday Night will be more scattered to widely scattered as well as Thursday Day. So, the bulk of the threat of rain will come Wednesday. Still, all three of these days will see a mix of sun and clouds before clearing out for Thursday Night. Friday will be clear with sun returning to dominate the skies. High temperatures will be in the 60’s and 70’s with 40’s to 50’s overnight for lows. Tonight/Sunday will see mid 30’s to low 40’s across the state. Northern areas will see the lower side of lows and coastal areas will have the higher side of the lows. These are pretty typical to slightly above average highs for the week. Water conditions look good all week inshore and Cautious for Offshore towards the end of the week, with winds pushing to 20-25 knots. Monday may see some solid 15 knot winds, more likely to the south and gusts to 20 knots this week are possible. Other than that, nothing stands out in the marine forecast this week. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to good. Some higher surf is possible for the start of the week and could sustain throughout the week, especially across Southern Beaches. Still, we are only looking at 2-5 feet with potential for some gusty winds around 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Scattered thunderstorms will be a concern with the Marine Forecast this week for both water and surf. Thunderstorms could produce high winds, deadly lightning, and heavy rains. Water conditions can change quickly within a thunderstorm, with winds creating higher than forecast waves. Be alert to smaller cells and ever-changing conditions this week. Water temperatures are steady in the 50’s and 60’s. Rivers and bays are in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s in shallower waters. Surf temperatures are in the mid to upper 50’s. Inshore waters are in the mid to upper 50’s as well and offshore waters are still in the low 50’s. UV Index will be Moderate to High bordering on Very High most of the week.

High pressure will continue to build across the area through Monday before moving south on Tuesday. A warm front will lift across the area Wednesday before a cold front crosses the area early Thursday. High pressure then begins to build back in from the west for the weekend.
   
The Memorial Day Weekend looks to be mostly dry and sunny with temperatures in the 70’s. Scattered or isolated showers and/or thunderstorms are possible, right now. Water, surf and beach conditions look good as well. More to come the end of the week

This week is National Boating Safety Awareness Week! Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-20% (northern areas) chance of isolated showers during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Mid 40’s to low 50’s inland and along the coast, low 40’s across the north
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:07pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming mostly cloudy at night
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 20%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 70’s
Low:   Mid to upper 50’s inland and along the coast, low 50’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:37am
Sunset: 8:08pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to mid 70’s
Low:   Mid 50’s to low 60’s 
UV Index:  4-7/15 (Moderate- High)
Sunrise: 5:37am
Sunset: 8:09pm
Last Qtr: 9:00am


Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny to cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to mid 70’s
Low:   Mid to upper 50’s inland and along the coast, low 50’s across the north
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:36am
Sunset: 8:10pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Upper 40’s to mid 50’s
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:35am
Sunset: 8:11pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  59°F
Monday
Wind:   NW 10 knots
Seas:    1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  59°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  55°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 3 to 5 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday
Wind:  WNW 6-10 knots or less   
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  WNW 8-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 6-10 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SSE 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots, WNW 5-8 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NNW 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  59°F
Monday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  63°F-65°F
Monday
Wind:  NW 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  W 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  54°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 13 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 11 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 11 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 12 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 10 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Updated, Thanks !

[Pfishingruven]

Rain and thunderstorms in Central PA will move into the area over the next few hours. Central PA has experienced heavy rains causing flash flooding with these storms in addition to dangerous lightning and some gusty winds.

There will be the potential for thunderstorms today and tomorrow, with some of them being strong to severe. The main threat will be heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds and hail. An isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out in any severe thunderstorms, either. This threat looks to be on the lower end, but it is still a threat to be aware of. Any of these storms/cells getting over marine waters will cause much higher winds and wave than forecast, so be alert.

One other note...Ft Dix Radar is still out of service. Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) or the radar at airports has a much more limited range. NWS Doppler Radar can scan to around 285 miles, while Terminal Doppler Radar can only scan to 83 miles. Make sure if you are relying on your smartphone radar apps, you check several sites to get the proper coverage. NWS Doppler Radar in Dover, DE (KDOX) will cover the South Jersey, NWS Doppler Radar in Upton, Long Island, NY will cover North Jersey. Airport Radars at Newark (TEWR), Philadelphia (TPHL), and JFK (TFJK) will give more localized radar returns. Otherwise, you could miss a storm and be in for a surprise.

Have a great day and be safe!!

Current Radar



Wednesday Severe Weather Threat






Wednesday Thunderstorm Possibilities




Thursday Severe Weather Threat

[Pfishingruven]

With scattered thunderstorms and showers across parts of the state, areas in Central NJ from Trenton to Seaside Heights have had training storms since before daylight today. 1-2+ inches of rain have fallen across this area already.

There will continue to be a Slight Risk of Severe Weather with the main threats being heavy rains, deadly lightning, damaging winds and hail. With any severe thunderstorms and supercell formation, tornadoes are possible and cannot be ruled out. Tornadoes chances are extremely low.

Storms exiting land and entering marine waters will produce winds and seas much higher than forecast.

Keep weather aware today and be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8PM for Bergen, Eastern Union, Essex, Hunterdon, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren Counties. These areas could see hail to 2 inches and winds in excess of 70 mph with any thunderstorms.

Be safe!

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #172

[Pfishingruven]

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the remaining counties of NJ until 10PM.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #174

[Hunter 2]

 Thanks Matt.

[Ms Fish]

I drove through it today on my way down to Ocean City and now I get to drive through it again on my way home... Wonderful!  We still love you MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT!