Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: July 26-27, 2014  (Read 1544 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A mixed weekend for both weather and water conditions. Chances of showers and/or thunderstorms are possible both days this weekend. Sunday will have the higher chances with more widely scattered or widespread storms possible. Some storms could be strong to severe, so Convective Outlooks will be updated. Overall, it still does not look like a complete wash out, with a mix of sun and clouds with more sun on Saturday and more clouds on Sunday. As high pressure moves offshore it will bring another round of southerly flow with a lifting warm front as well. High temperatures will be in the 80’s with higher temperatures inland and south. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60’s and low 70’s with cooler lows across the north. Humidity will be high this weekend with hot, moist air over the region. Humidity will not break until late Monday into Tuesday. Water conditions will be a mix as well. Mornings look to have calm winds, with winds and seas increasing in the afternoon and into the overnight. Winds could gust to near 20 knots with inshore waters at 2-4 feet and midshore to offshore at 3-5 feet with a short period choppy seas. Sunday Night will continue elevated conditions into Monday and Tuesday. Conditions should remain below SCA criteria, but will be border line, especially Sunday Afternoon/Night. Saturday will have a dominant southerly flow again shifting to a west-southwest direction on Sunday. Surf and beach conditions will be good to ok. Winds will increase in the afternoons with surf around 1-3 feet with Low to Moderate Risk of rip currents on Saturday. On Sunday, winds and surf will increase, around 2-4 feet with a Moderate Risk of rip currents. Water temperatures have increased by a few degrees, however upwelling on Saturday could lower temperatures some. Rivers and bays are in the low to upper 70’s, nearing 80 degrees in places. Surf temperatures are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Ocean waters are in the low to mid 70’s again. UV Index will be High to Very High.

High pressure will continue to move into the region through Friday before moving offshore on Saturday. A warm front will cross the region late Saturday while the primary low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will move through late Sunday into Monday followed by high pressure.

Next week starts off with chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, then clearing out and dry for the rest of the week. Highs will go from upper 80’s on Monday to upper 70’s and low 80’s for the rest of the week. After Monday, temperatures will be slightly below average for the end of July/beginning of August. Overnight lows will also drop into the low 60’s as cooler and drier air moves in. Humidity will be high on Monday and by Monday Night will begin to lessen to low to moderate. Water, surf and beach conditions could see continued Cautious conditions with gustier winds and higher seas/surf for Monday and Tuesday; Wednesday through the end of the week will improve to good conditions.

There are two areas in the East Pacific being watched. The Atlantic is quiet.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Saturday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low to upper 80’s
Low:  Low 70’s inland and along the coast with mid 60’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:49am
Sunset: 8:17pm
New Moon: 6:43pm


Sunday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-60% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low to upper 80’s
Low:  Upper 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:50am
Sunset: 8:16pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Saturday – Sunday Severe Weather



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  77°F
Saturday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots increasing to S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  77°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  72°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  79°F
Saturday
Wind:  SSW 5-8 knots increasing to 9-12 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SSW 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SW 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 6-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  78°F
Saturday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



 20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)








Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!



*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Updated Weekend Severe Weather Outlooks
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2014, 01:34:30 PM »
Saturday will have a general risk of severe weather. Lower chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms with some of the storms strong to severe.

Sunday will have greater chances of more widely scattered or widespread thunderstorms with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes are possible.

Monday is a possibility, especially Southern NJ, for strong to severe thunderstorms as well, as a cold front with cooler and drier air meets hot and humid air in place.

Be alert and safe while out on the water and beaches this weekend!

Saturday



Sunday





Monday



Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Potential Severe Weather for Sunday
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2014, 12:50:49 PM »
There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening into the overnight. Thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. Storms will likely move into the area as widespread squall lines/multicellular storms. Supercells both embedded and separate from the lines are possible as well.

Be alert to changing conditions!








Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Sussex, Warren & Hunterdon Counties
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2014, 07:00:45 PM »
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2:00 AM for Sussex, Warren & Hunterdon Counties.

Main threats will be thunderstorms with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds and isolated hail.

Be alert to changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving Warnings.



Severe Thunderstorms Watch #449


 

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