Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Sept 2-5, 2014  (Read 1845 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Another mixed and unsettled week with above average temperatures and humidity and borderline water conditions most of the week. Tuesday will have chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe. The remainder of the week looks dry and sunny. However, all week looks hot and humid with Tuesday the hottest into the 90’s with heat indices approaching triple digits. Tuesday will be very humid with overnight lows in the upper 60’s and 70’s. By Wednesday, the oppressive humidity will break to moderate to high humidity with solid low to mid 80’s inland and upper 70’s along the coast and overnight lows only into the 60’s and low 70’s. Northern areas may see cooler overnight lows and drier air. Relief from heat and humidity won’t really come until late Saturday or early Sunday! Water conditions will be a mix this week depending on locations with a southerly flow most of the week. Tuesday of course will have thunderstorm possibilities, but rivers and bays will be good besides any storms and ocean waters look borderline with gusty winds and building seas late on Tuesday into Wednesday. Many areas will be good on Wednesday and Thursday, a few borderline on Wednesday and then conditions could worsen throughout the day on Friday. Surf and beach conditions will be good all week, minus any gusty winds. Surf will be normal with wave heights averaging 1-3 feet with a 1-3 foot swell out of the south. Water temperatures are up a few degrees with most waters in the upper 60’s to mid to upper 70’s, even.  UV Index will be High to Very High at 7-8/15.

High pressure off the coast will continue the southerly flow and warm and humid conditions through Tuesday. A cold front will then move across the area late Tuesday and early Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind this front on Wednesday Afternoon. Another cold front may approach from the West early Saturday, before stalling near or just south of the region by Sunday.
 
The weekend looks like a split. Saturday will have chances of showers and thunderstorms with warmer and more humid temperatures in the upper 70’s and 80’s with overnight lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Sunday looks dry and sunny with cooler and drier air with highs in the mid to upper 70’s with overnight lows in the lower 60’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be mixed. Rivers and bays, as well as northern ocean waters and beaches will have good conditions for the weekend. Southern ccean waters and midshore to offshore could see borderline to cautious conditions with gustier winds and higher seas; Saturday looks worse than Sunday, right now.

The tropics are quiet for the US. Tropical Depression 5 formed in the Gulf Area and is forecast to go into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Have a great week! Welcome to Meteorological Fall…

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy, patchy fog in the morning
Precipitation:  20%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to mid 90’s (very humid)
Low:   Mid 60’s to mid 70’s
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:25am
Sunset: 7:28pm
First Qtr: 7:12am


Wednesday
Sky:   Partly sunny to sunny becoming mostly clear to clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 60’s
Low:   Low to upper 80’s 
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:26am
Sunset: 7:26pm


Thursday
Sky:  Sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Mid to upper 60’s inland, upper 60’s to low 70’s along the coast, low 60’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:27am
Sunset: 7:25pm


Friday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Mid to upper 60’s inland, upper 60’s to low 70’s along the coast
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:27am
Sunset: 7:23pm


Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation 5 Day



Total Precipitation 7 Day



Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  76°F
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming S 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  76°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  69°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  79°F
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 6-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  S 5-8 knots increasing to 9-12 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SSW 10-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  75°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  77°F-80°F
Tuesday
Wind:  SSW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSW 3 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Weather Potential for Tuesday
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2014, 06:47:09 PM »
Severe Weather Potential for this evening into tonight for strong to severe storms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning and damaging winds.

An area of storms to the west and southwest will affect the area. NWS PHI has issued a Special Weather Statement for Salem County for strong thunderstorms!

Be safe!!





Offline Hunter 2

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Sept 2-5, 2014
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2014, 05:44:28 AM »
I like the new graph in the first post.   I did see the lightning out to the west last night t^
Eddie "Hunter 2"
36' Topaz "Hallie Loren"    Charter boat sailing from Wagners Marina, Keyport NJ


 Life is short, Fish Hard.

Online Hotrod

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Sept 2-5, 2014
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2014, 07:12:29 AM »
Great Job Matt. The new graph is Spot On




 

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