NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Jan 24-25, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A snowy/wet weekend with hazardous water conditions begin Friday Night. Friday Night will begin affects from a Nor’Easter working up the coast and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. Friday Night will bring a wintry mix and snow as well as the possibility of ice. This will continue into Saturday Day with some rain for some areas, freezing rain/ice for others and a mix of snow/wintry precipitation changing throughout the day. Accumulations from less than an inch to 3-4 inches right now is in the forecast. It is going to cause a MESS. The track and intensity of the winter storm is still uncertain, as are the snowfall totals. The models have been consistently, inconsistent with this storm painting a picture of a very powerful, cold and snowy storm all the way to a weaker, system with rain and snow. This will be a fast mover, though, for the most part. Besides precipitation, gusty winds are possible and right now tides could run around a foot above normal. Coastal involvements are possible and areas that normally get water with coastal storms will probably see some minor coastal flooding as well. Hopefully, within the next 12 hours, the models will come to a better agreement so that forecasts are not see-sawing back and forth. By Saturday Night conditions will slowly improve with just lingering effects as the storm races off into New England. Sunday Day will see clearing skies, some sun likely before another system moves in later on Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Another clipper will move out of the Upper Great Lakes/Canada brining another chance of snow/mix/rain. The clipper will be fast moving as well and accumulations should remain in the few inches range at most. Water conditions will be mostly poor all weekend with gale force winds and high seas causing hazardous to cautious conditions. Conditions could improve for a small window on Sunday, but will deteriorate again by Sunday Afternoon and into Monday/Tuesday. Surf and beach conditions will echo the water conditions and as with any coastal storm could make beaches hazardous with gusty winds, rough and high surf and higher tides causing beach erosion. Water temperatures are steady still. The UV Index will be Low at 0-2/15.

High pressure will settle across the Mid Atlantic Region Thursday Night and early Friday before moving east. Low pressure will develop over the Deep South Friday and track up the East Coast Friday Night through Sunday.  A ridge of high pressure will build over the area Sunday before another low pressure  system will approach for later Sunday Night and affect the area through Monday. Arctic High Pressure will affect the area from next Tuesday into Wednesday.

Next week will start off with another low pressure system (clipper) remaining in the area from Sunday. Tuesday will bring in cold air, but dry conditions likely through the end of the week. Water, surf and beach conditions will start off hazardous to cautious on Monday and begin improving into Tuesday and then good for the remainder of the week.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading! Stay tuned for updates on the coastal low/Nor’Easter on Friday/Saturday and the clipper on Sunday/Monday.

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  70%-90% chance of rain/snow/mix/ice during the day, 20% chance of rain/snow/mix/ice at night
Temperatures
High:     Mid to upper 30’s
Low:     Upper 20’s inland, low 30’s along the coast, mid 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:12am
Sunset: 5:05pm


Sunday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 30%-50% chance of rain/snow/mix at night
Temperatures
High:     Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low:     Mid to upper 20’s inland, low to mid 30’s along the coast, upper teens northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:11am
Sunset: 5:06pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Storm/Nor’Easter Tracks




Friday –Saturday Snowfall Total




Friday –Saturday Ice Total



Friday –Saturday Maximum Snowfall Total




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  37°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots becoming N 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):   2-5 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-7 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot, then 2 feet after midnight, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-7 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  37°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WATCH (for Night)
Winds: NNE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 11 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-7 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-7 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  42°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Saturday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  36°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 14-17 knots becoming N 18-21 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 28 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  WNW 15-17 knots with gusts to 23 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 13-16 knots decreasing to 8-11 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  41°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WARNING (for Night)
Winds: N 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  35°F-38°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 20-25 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots late
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots increasing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  50°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 9 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NNE 30 to 41 knots
Seas:  ENE 7 feet at 6 seconds
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WNW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  S 8 feet at 11 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  S 7 feet at 10 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

I will have an update on this Nor'Easter this afternoon. As of this morning snowfall amounts have increased for Western and Northern NJ, but the biggest change is a wider-spread ice event when snow changes back over to rain sometime in the early morning hours and into daybreak. Areas in northern Central NJ (Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth and bordering counties) could see as much as a quarter of an inch. Ice will make traveling treacherous. The ice event last week crippled travel in the greater Tr-State Area for several hours and taxed Emergency Services. If you have to be out tomorrow at any time, make sure road conditions are ok. Snow and ice are one thing, but freezing rain makes every surface like an ice skating rink.

More to follow with Briefings and updated forecasts this afternoon...

 

[Bucktail]

Bring us some better news later Matt.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Bring us some better news later Matt.

 

Looks a little better for most of the state...as the bulk of the snow will stay to the north and west! Sorry, Northwestern guys ! Update to follow...NWS's have been slow to update.

[Pfishingruven]

Sorry for the delay! I have been waiting on an official update from the NWS’s ( I was expecting this around 3 or 4 PM), but so far no luck yet. Snowfall forecasts have been updated, though and I will go with what I have at this point.

Over the last 12 hours, there seems to be more model agreement on track and intensity. The basic track will be close along the coast and directly off of NJ with an intensity around 1000 mb central pressure. This is weak to moderate storm. With that being said, in comparison to the forecast, the current surface analysis is placing the low slightly south and east of the forecasted track in the Gulf States with a slightly lower central pressure. The forecast is also bringing the low in a more northerly track, bypassing the Atlantic Ocean until the DELMARVA. If this holds true, this will mean a much weaker storm, as it won't have time to intensify over open ocean waters...this is looking to be the case. However, if this does not happen and the track is more to the south and east, it could bring more snow south and east across the state. The lower pressure could mean a stronger storm as well. These coastal lows tend to over-perform once over the ocean waters. A stronger storm could mean more snow, in general, as well as more coastal and ocean involvements. Luckily, the system is still a fast mover, quickly exiting to the northeast and into New England.

As the forecast stands now, snow/mix will begin accumulating as early as 10PM Friday Night starting from the southwest to the northeast with a few inches or less across southern and eastern parts of the state and as much as 6 inches across northern and northwestern areas. Precipitation may start as rain, changing over to snow and then back to rain for areas south of the I-95 corridor before gradually changing back over to snow. This could go back and forth for this southern area throughout Friday Night and into Saturday. This rain is where the ice and freezing rain will come into play. The freezing rain forecast has backed off quite a bit since this afternoon and is isolated to a central and north western area of the state, north of the I-95 corridor, extending east into the greater NYC area. This area is at greatest risk of freezing rain and ice accumulation, however any place getting a mix or rain should be concerned with ice accumulation on surfaces. By Saturday daybreak most areas south of the I-95 corridor looks to be more rain or a mix, than snow, but that could shift some in either direction and either more or less snow. The bulk of the system will move out by Saturday Night with some lingering snow showers statewide. Overall, most areas will only get 1-3 inches with a worst case scenario of 1-6 inches. Northern and Northwestern parts of the state will see 3-6 inches with a max of 6-10 inches. Coastal involvements look like gale force winds with high seas, rough and high surf, some minor beach erosion and tides running around a foot above normal which will bring some very minor coastal flooding.

By Sunday, skies will clear and the sun will make an appearance  before more snow moves in for Sunday Night in the form of a clipper. This could bring several to a few more inches of snow across most of the state, as cold air will be in place. Updates and forecasts to follow…

Be safe and stay warm! Time to get ready, as it looks like Winter will take its grip on the region over the next couple of weeks.

NWS PHI Briefing #2

NWS NYC Briefing

Storm Track




Snowfall Totals




Ice Totals



Snowfall Maximums

[Pfishingruven]

A quick look ahead to tomorrow's snow. This is looking like a full blown Winter Storm vs. a clipper (or a clipper on steroids). This system is going to give the region and specifically the coast a 1-2 punch. The low is forecast to dip much further south than anticipated picking up moisture giving us snow as it exits into the Atlantic. The second round of snow will come in the form of a coastal storm, just far enough offshore right now to be all snow bringing additional snowfall to coastal areas and even inland central and southern areas. Right now snowfall totals range from an inch in the Northern Areas to 4-6 inches for Central, Southern and Coastal Areas. Looking at some of the models this afternoon, this is very conservative. Some models are showing more than a foot. It is hard to call a trend and see the averages with just a few runs of the models, so a full update will come tonight after the evening models come in. Timing will be Sunday Night through Tuesday Daylight/Afternoon with the bulk of snow coming on Monday for both commutes.

Stay tuned

[Salty Dog]

Thanks Matt . I think ?

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Matt . I think ?

I'm pretty sure you won't be thanking me . I am seeing the potential of 12-24 inches statewide (Not from the NWS).

[Reel McCoy]

Maybe this time you could be wrong 

Thanks Matt