Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Jan 26-30, 2015  (Read 1338 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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So, Monday is in the history books and Tuesday is still looking like a cloudy day with snow for a significant portion of the state and for most of the day. Conditions will begin to clear by late Tuesday and by Tuesday Night will be completely cleared out. Wednesday will see a mix of sun and clouds. Thursday and Friday could see another clipper-type system bringing some snow to the state…some areas may only get rain or a mix. By Friday Night this system will clear out before the weekend and another system on Sunday/Monday. Thursday/Friday and Sunday/Monday will be the next systems to watch for the possibility of accumulating snow and wintry precipitation. Highs will be in the 20’s and 30’s with overnight lows in the single digits to 20’s. Water conditions will continue to be hazardous to cautious on Tuesday, cautious again on Wednesday, improve for Thursday and then deteriorate for Friday with cautious to hazardous conditions with the potential of gale force winds again. Surf conditions will be hazardous on Tuesday, cautious to ok on Wednesday, better on Thursday and then deteriorate again on Friday. Water temperatures are steady in the 30’s and 40’s with offshore waters dropping into the 40’s and low 50’s after being churned up by the Nor’Easter. UV Index is Low at 0-2/15. Days are getting longer and the angle of the sun is a little higher in the sky. UV Indices will slowly increase into next month and then of course into Spring and Summer.

A rapidly intensifying low pressure system moving up the East Coast will continue to move Northeast and pass near Cape Cod during the middle of the day on Tuesday before weakening as it moves toward Canada on Wednesday. A high pressure system from the West is expected to arrive over the region on Wednesday Night. A clipper type low pressure system is expected to follow with its cold front moving through early Friday. Another high pressure system should move in for Saturday. Another low pressure system should move through the Eastern United States late Sunday or early Monday.

The weekend looks 50%-50% again. Saturday looks clear, but cold and Sunday looks like chances of some snow again and again cold. Snow situation will be watched as another potential system. Highs will only be in the 20’s to low 30’s with overnight lows in the single digits to low 20’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be opposite with cautious to hazardous conditions on Saturday with possible gale winds and warnings, but look to improve on Sunday.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Snow
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 30’s inland, mid 30’s to low 40’s along the coast, low 20’s northern areas
Low:   Low to mid 20’s inland, mid 20’s to low 30’s along the coast, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:10am
Sunset: 5:07pm
First Qtr: 11:49pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Snow
Temperatures
High:   Mid 20’s to low 30’s
Low:   Mid teens inland, mid teens to low 20’s along the coast, upper single digits northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:10am
Sunset: 5:08pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly sunny to sunny then partly cloudy to mostly clear, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:    Mid 20’s to low 30’s
Low:   Mid single digits to low teens inland, upper teens to low 20’s along the coast, low to mid single digits northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:09am
Sunset: 5:09pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of snow during the day, 30%-40% chance of snow at night
Temperatures
High:   low to upper 30’s
Low:   mid to upper 20’s inland, upper 20’s to low 30’s along the coast, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 5:11pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny  to mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of rain/snow during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 30’s
Low:   Mid single digits to low teens inland, upper teens to low 20’s along the coast, mid to upper single digits northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 5:12pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  37°F
Monday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Monday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  N 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots increasing to 40 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-9 feet
Tuesday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-10 feet
Tuesday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-10 feet

Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                          



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  37°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: N 25-30 knots with gusts to 50 knots
Seas:  10-15 feet building to 14-18 feet after midnight, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf:  5-10 feet
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: N 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  4-10 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: NNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  4-10 feet

Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Thursday Morning
Winds: N 6 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 3 to 3 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet


Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  43°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: N 30-40 knots with gusts to 50 knots
Seas:  9-12 feet at 9 seconds building to 11-16 feet at 10 seconds, Visibility 1 nm less
Surf:  5-10 feet
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: N 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet

Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  NNE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  E 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  NNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  35°F
Monday
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Monday Night
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Wind:  N 29-31 knots with gusts to 44 knots
Seas:  3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Wind:  NW 22-26 knots with gusts to 37 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 16-19 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 14-18 knots with gusts to 24 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Wednesday Night
Wind:  NNW 8-11 knots decreasing to 5-8 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SSW 5-7 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 6-9 knots becoming WSW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 6-9 knots becoming NW 12-17 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 23 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 12-17 knots with gusts to 23 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: N 30-40 knots with gusts to 50 knots diminishing to 25-35 knots late night
Seas:  11-16 feet at 9 seconds, then 9-14 feet at 10 seconds late, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  4-9 feet
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: N 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  E 8 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: NW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet

Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  NNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  NNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WNW 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  W 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WNW 29 to 40 knots
Seas:  WNW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet


Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  35°F-39°F
Monday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Monday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  N 25-30 knots diminishing to 25-25 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots diminishing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:   3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet

Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming N 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Winds:  NW 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  46°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: NE 35-45 knots becoming N to NE 40-55 knots
Seas:  13-22 feet
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: N 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  ENE 15 feet at 11 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
STORM WARNING
Winds: NNW 22 to 29 knots
Seas:  ENE 11 feet at 11 seconds

Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  NNW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  NNW 5 feet at 6 seconds

Thursday Morning
Winds: N 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: W 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  SW 8 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WNW 29 to 40 knots
Seas:  WNW 9 feet at 7 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
« Last Edit: January 27, 2015, 01:27:44 AM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Thursday Night into Friday Snow
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2015, 08:03:55 PM »
A clipper like system looks to bring some nuisance snow and maybe a mix/rain to the area Thursday Night into Friday Morning. Statewide this is going to be 1-2 inches of accumulation with much of Central and Southern NJ getting less than an inch and some extreme southern parts of Cape May and Cumberland Counties getting no accumulation. Again, a quick moving system that will bring some slick stuff for surfaces on Thursday Night and Friday Morning.

Overnight lows tonight could get down into the single digits depending on winds and cloud cover. Friday Night and Saturday Night will be the next time they dip this low.

Anyone wondering why the Blizzard Forecast busted so badly...send me a PM. There are legitimate atmospheric physics of why nothing MD, DE, PA, NJ and NYC! It's not worth boring everyone ;D.

Be safe!







Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Thursday Night/Friday Snow
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2015, 09:03:26 PM »
No major changes! Faster moving clipper to move through tonight and Friday Morning. Snow accumulations range from 0-3 inches. Most areas will be 0-2 inches with a small area of Northwest NJ getting 2-3 inches. A mix of wintry precip is possible as is some rain mixed in and even some icing possible. Otherwise, just a nuisance snow for the morning!

Be safe!!



 

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