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NJ Saltwater Fisherman ForumsNJ Saltwater FishermanWeather and Hurricane Info NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Mar 13-17, 2017
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Pfishingruven
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« on: March 12, 2017, 06:06:50 PM »




A very unsettled week with cold temperatures, a NoríEaster, and mostly hazardous water conditions. Monday will be sunny with increasing clouds. A powerful Winter Storm/NoríEaster will move through the area off the coast on Monday Night through Tuesday Night bringing cold temperatures, snow, high winds, moderate coastal flooding, high seas, high surf, and beach erosion. Snow will taper off by Tuesday Night with snow showers possible on Wednesday and then again on Friday. Thursday looks to be dry. Highs all week will be in the 20ís and 30ís, maybe some 40ís along the coast with lows in the teens to 30ís. Water conditions will be HAZARDOUS Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then cautious on Thursday, and borderline on Friday. Water temperatures are steady. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 0-5/15.

High pressure builds across the region through tonight before moving offshore on Monday. Low pressure develops off the Carolinas Monday night, then becomes an intense storm east of New Jersey Tuesday, before tracking past New England Tuesday night. A strong northwest flow follows Wednesday. High pressure then builds across the region
Wednesday night through Friday. Another storm system is possible next weekend.

MONDAY & TUESDAY Winter Storm/NoríEaster

Snow will begin Monday Night and continue through Tuesday Night with the heaviest snow early on Tuesday and Tuesday during the day. Snowfall totals will really depend on storm track, as two low pressure systems will merge transferring all the energy to the system coming out of the Southeast and strengthening into a powerful coastal storm. Again, track will be the difference between how much snowfall is received. The greatest snowfall amounts will be across inland New Jersey and Pennsylvania, then New York, Long Island, up into the Northeast. Coastal Areas could see the least amount of snow, generally south and east of the I95 Corridor, but this cut off could move even farther south and/or east. The cut off will be pretty sharp with snow changing over to rain and north and west of this cut off/rain/snow line 6+ inches. Areas could see up to 18 inches of snow. Again, just 100 miles either way, will be a completely different game. In addition to crippling amounts of snow, winds will gust to 50+ mph with coastal areas seeing 60 mph winds. Moderate Coastal Flooding is likely as well with tides running 1-2 feet above High Astronomical Tide levels across the state. High surf up to 10+ feet, high seas to 18+ feet, and beach erosion are all likely. Downed trees and powerlines are likely with this storm. Now is the time to prepare and be ready. Forecasts will change over the next 24-36 hours and I will update this tomorrow evening. Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Watches, Blizzard Watches, Coastal Flood Watches, High Wind Watches, and Storm & Gale Warnings have all been posted for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

NWS Philadelphia Briefing on Monday-Tuesday Winter Storm
 
The weekend will have chances of snow showers, mainly on Saturday, but also on Sunday. Highs will be in the 40ís with lows in the 20ís and 30ís. Water conditions will be good to borderline.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  100% Chance of Snow at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 30ís
Low:   Mid to upper 20ís inland, low to mid 30ís at the shore, low 20ís for northern areas
UV Index:  3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:11am
Sunset: 7:00pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  100% Chance of Snow all day, tapering off by night
Temperatures
High:   Low 20ís to mid 30ís inland, upper 30ís to low 40ís at the shore
Low:   Low 20ís inland, mid 20ís at the shore, upper teens for northern areas
UV Index:  0-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:10am
Sunset: 7:01pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-40% Chance of Snow Showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 30ís
Low:   Upper teens to low 20ís inland, low to mid 20ís at the shore, mid teens for northern areas
UV Index:  3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 7:02pm


Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-Slight Chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 30ís
Low:   Upper teens to low 20ís, Mid to upper 20ís at the shore, low teens for northern areas
UV Index:  3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 7:03pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny to sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of snow showers during the day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 30ís to low 40ís
Low:   Mid 20ís inland, upper 20ís at the shore, low 20ís for northern areas
UV Index:  3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 7:05pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Monday - Monday



Storm Tracks




Forecast Snow Totals




Minimum Snowfall




Maximum Snowfall




Tide/Flooding Forecast





Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
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Hunter 2
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2017, 12:09:43 PM »

 
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2017, 05:09:18 PM »

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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 06:35:54 PM »

 
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Pfishingruven
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2017, 10:08:37 PM »

So, in 24 hours the forecast has changed significantly for coastal areas. The cut off from snow changing over to rain and then back to snow has expanded north and west with a true I95 Corridor as a boundary. Areas south and east of this general area will see less snow, with snow changing over to rain and then back to snow. Snowfall totals were also lowered across parts of Monmouth and Middlesex Counties, and Blizzard Warnings were dropped for Ocean County.

Many areas are already seeing snow showers develop with the storm starting around midnight and lasting through Tuesday Night. 2 low pressure systems will merge off the coast, the first system will come out of the Midwest and the second system will exit the Southeast into the Atlantic. This coastal low will rapidly intensify. Track will really determine snowfall totals and depending where the true cutoff occurs. A difference of 50-100 miles will make for an entire different scenario.

Areas forecast to get less snowfall will still see high winds 40-60 mph, moderate coastal flooding, high surf, high seas, and beach erosion. These areas should continue to be prepared for snow as many areas will still see 6+ inches of snow and 10+ inches are possible depending on that track and intensity. Inland areas will also have gusty winds and heavy snow. Tree and power line damage is likely.

Be safe!

NWS New York Winter Storm Briefing

NWS Philadelphia Winter Storm Briefing

Tuesday Weather Maps





Storm Tracks




Snowfall Totals




Snow Minimum




Snow Maximum




Ice Totals


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