Possible Nor'Easter Week of November 5, 2012 Archives

[Pfishingruven]

It looks like the entire Mid Atlantic Region and Northeast will be affected in some form by another coastal storm.  This Nor'Easter is no Sandy, but certainly not something we need a week or so later!  This storm looks like it will ride up the coast bringing 50mph winds, 2-3 inches of rain or more snow in some places and some coastal flooding.  Temperatures will be down into the 30's and 20's in some places, add in the wind chill and temperatures will feel like teens and/or single digits...BRRRR!  This will definitely hamper recovery a bit, add unneeded stress on already damaged trees and powerlines, possibly flood some areas finally drying out and leave those without power even colder.

Be safe and prepared, yet again!

Euro 12Z Model 120 hours



GFS 12Z Model 120 hours



HPC 5 Day Precipitation



GFS 12Z Snowfall Total



GFS/Euro Winds Split



NWS PHI Briefing #1 Nor'Easter

[Hotrod]

 

[Takes Prizoners]

Well, I just tucked away the gen.  So I guess I'll start the snowblower.

[Fishin Dude]

Oh no ! 

[Pfishingruven]

This week's Nor'Easter is pretty much going to affect us one way or another.  This will be a coastal storm that appears to be riding up the coast.  Exact track and timing vary, but it looks like it will stay offshore around Wednesday or Thursday.  It is going to bring 40-50mph winds, 2-3 inches of rain for the coast, with the possibility of snow farther inland, minor coastal flooding and the typical increased wave heights, high surf and beach erosion(whatever it didn't take the last round)!  The track will depend highly on who gets snow and how much.  It will also depend on how bad the area is hit, again.  Right now the models basically agree with a storm in the 980mb rainge remaining along the coast and going into New England!  A couple of trends I have noticed, is the offshore track and the increasing in strength.  Don't ignore this storm because it is not going to be as bad as Sandy.  It has the potential for a good amount of damage on top of what everyone has already endured!  ****I just want to make this clear, though...right now, there is not even a storm developed.  IF, a storm develops, it will develop in the Gulf as a weak low, move across Florida and intensify out in the Atlantic from there in the next 48-72 hours.

I will keep you updated.  Keep an eye on this.  The
entire area is vulnerable and we don't need a weaker storm to cause more loss of life or unnecessary damage!

GFS Model Sunday 12Z



Euro Model Sunday 12Z



GFS Snowfall Totals



Euro Snowfall Totals



NWS Briefing #3 Nor'Easter

Sandy Hook Storm Surge

Atlantic City Storm Surge

Cape May Storm Surge

Philadelphia Storm Surge

[Bucktail]

Matt, have I ever told you that I hate you!

Oh wait.  Yes.  Yes, I have.  Quite a few times I believe.

Nevermind.  Carry on.

 

[Hotrod]

 

[Reel McCoy]

Thanks for these reports, Matt 

[Capt. RJ]

  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Takes Prizoners]

since we were seeing all this cold, I pulled out the snowblower.  Doing an oil change on it tomorrow just in case we see some snow

[Pfishingruven]

Matt, have I ever told you that I hate you!

Oh wait.  Yes.  Yes, I have.  Quite a few times I believe.

Nevermind.  Carry on.

 

 

[Pfishingruven]

This upcoming storm could cause significant problems for our area.  The genesis of this storm is beginning to verify with some early formation in the Gulf, west of Florida.  While the track is still not definite, the models are bringing a 971mb storm farther offshore.  Some models almost miss NJ completely and take it into New England, while other models bring 9 inches of snow and others just rain.  Right now, the NWS PHI/Mount Holly is calling for a track along the coast, bringing rain, 8-10 foot waves, 2-4 foot storm surge and 50-65mph winds.  This can and will do significant damage with the track they are calling, however, there is a decent chance it could stay farther east and spare us what we don't need!  Trend today from the models is of a more easterly track!  Of course, towns are taking this seriously already with Mandatory Evacuations tonight.

The NWS Briefing is very detailed tonight and has explained graphics.

Be safe, stay alert, stay alive!

NWS Briefing

[BigAl13]

With the already deteriorated beaches and the already high water does this storm have the potential for significant damage although its not a HUGE storm?

[Pfishingruven]

There definitely is the potential for more damage even though this is not a big storm.  With dune protection gone and beaches eroded, places that were not damaged are exposed and vulnerable and could easily be damaged this time.  "Storm Surge" is only going to be half of what it was during Sandy and waves along the ocean are only 8-10 feet, not the 15-18+ with Sandy.  So, while this is still a dangerous storm, with potential for flooding, wind damage and even snow, it is going to stay likely, to our east and leave us on the weaker side of the storm.  So, will you see more damage from this storm now, than if it had hit before Sandy, yes, but I would not expect widespread significant damage like we all experienced last week!  Cleanup efforts and equipment is also at risk and many places are evacuating already hit areas, so this is delaying the cleanup.  Trees could be an issue too.  If they were weakened and have not been taken down yet, the potential for damage from them and power outages is high as well.

Unfortunately, the models cannot come to a consensus and agree on track or intensity.  This is because there really is not anything formed yet...low pressure has started to form, but nothing definitive yet.  Last night the models were beginning to trend towards a more easterly track.  Today, they have come back west.  Another positive thing I am seeing is that if this storm forms, it will form more to the north than previously modeled.  This will give it less time to organize and could be weaker?  I will have an afternoon update as soon as I look over all the NWS Information and models.

So, be ready, but look at the facts and not the media hype.

 

[Reel McCoy]

Thanks, Matt 

[Pfishingruven]

We are less than 24 hours away from this potential strong Nor'Easter.  The NWS PHI/Mount Holly has issued their daily briefing.  Their forecast is that this storm will follow the coast, remaining offshore, bringing 50-65 mph winds, 8-10 foot waves, 2-4 feet of coastal flooding and a mixture of rain/snow for the area.  Currently, low pressure has just exited off the coast of Florida/Georgia with the bulk of the system still over Georgia and South Carolina.  The models have flip flopped back and forth between a more westerly track and a more easterly track with.  At this point it could go either way.  The system is also emerging out into the ocean, more north than originally projected which could give it less time to organize, however these extratropical storms thrive in these current conditions and can intensify VERY rapidly.  Models are all showing a 986mb pressure, quite different from the 970's yesterday.  This is definitely a storm to take seriously and "err on the side of caution," considering the vulnerability of the area.  Models can and do change, every 6 hours.  Going with the Official Forecast of the NWS PHI/Mount Holly is the best guidance for now.

NWS PHI Briefing #5



NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings

Midshore to Offshore Storm Watch

Gale Warning Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon


Here are current Surface Analysis and Satellite Image of the location of the system.  I have circled them in yellow.

Surface Analysis Map



Visible Satellite



Nor'Easter Visible Satellite Loop

Here are some models showing storm track, strength and snowfall totals.  These are only models and not the official forecasts!

GFS Model Track and Snowfall





Euro Model Track and Snowfall





NAM Model Track



Precipitation Totals



Storm Surge/Tidal Flooding

Sandy Hook Tidal Guidance

Atlantic City Tidal Guidance

Cape May Tidal Guidance

[Pfishingruven]

These are old posts/archives!

Go here for the latest updates on the upcoming Nor'Easter

http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=29839.0

[Still Running]

 

[Takes Prizoners]

just got done with the snowblower.  so, atlest im ready if we see snow

[BigAl13]

Matt its great that you twll it like it is thanks