Today is Day #7 and the last Day of National Severe Weather Preparedness Week. Today’s emphasis is on “Just the Beginning” and I will go over weather maps and some weather models:
Being prepared for any type of natural disaster is not a static, one time event. Being prepared requires constant vigilance and the ability to adapt and change with new technology, ever changing weather and dynamic personal changes. Most of the time, we make these changes daily and address any issues as they come up. Sometimes the changes do not happen until after an event, when we have learned from a mistake. Risks, plans and kits all require updating and should be checked before higher risk seasons and again before a known high risk event.
Weather Ready Nation "Just the Beginning" (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/news/130309_swpw_continue.html#.UxtOtvldUrU)
Forecasts are made through the assistance of weather models. Weather models themselves are not forecasts and are far from perfect, however, they do give a general idea of what type of weather may be expected. Never look at a model and take it as a given, as the models require a meteorologist to make important changes. With that out of the way, models are useful at looking at the bigger picture of what may occur and the more and more models are used, the more familiar you can get with them. Most will not even venture down this road, but in the past, I have been asked about models. Reading numerical models (models are just physics and calculus formulas and equations being computed by supercomputers) is a full Master’s Degree upon itself, but looking at a forecast and then reviewing various models is something anyone can do for their own personal information. There are 100’s of weather models that cover long range, medium range and short range windows. The main models are the Global Forecast System (GFS) produced by the US, the ECMWF or the European Model (Euro), the Canadian (CMC) more for Winter Weather, the NAM, the RAP and the HRRR. Access to models can be somewhat difficult, especially the Euro. Each model provides many products, such as precipitation, snow, surface analysis, etc…choosing which product to pick can be confusing. I recommend that you pick 10M MSLP (mean sea level pressure) or on the shorter range models such as the RAP or HRRR the Reflectivity or Composite Reflectivity. These products will show you what may happen in the future, like crystal ball, only not as accurate. Access to marine weather models is available too, called WaveWatchIII, but looking at the maps is very difficult as the maps do not zoom in enough for our region to actually see the projections. Using BuoyWeather is a much better option.
NWS Models (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-area.php)
NWS Ocean Prediction Center (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/)
NWS RAP Model (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/)
NWS HRRR Model (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/)
FSU Model Interface (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
European Model (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014030800!!/)
Reading weather maps is a little easier to understand, however the same principles are there in both models and weather maps. Models do not provide the translations most weather maps provide because the models are not produced by a person, but by computers. Basically, models and weather maps provide current or future analysis of air masses, pressure systems, frontal boundaries and weather conditions, such as rain, snow, thunderstorms, etc. All of these are drawn as lines and symbols on a map. High pressure or ridges look like hills or mountains building up, while trofs/troughs or low pressure are areas that dip down from the north and look like valleys. High pressure and low pressure signify different air masses and are separated by frontal boundaries. After looking at maps and models for a while, the ever changing patterns become something normal to look at and eventually begin to make sense. The best way to understand or get better at weather maps, if you choose, is to read them every day and compare them with known forecasts. At minimum, looking at a weather map legend and understanding current surface analyses can make knowing the current or expected weather easier for everyone. Below are some keys to reading a weather map.
NWS Weather Maps (http://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps)
NWS Map Keys/Legends (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fntcodes2.shtml)
NWS About Weather Maps (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/about_Gudes.shtml)
NWS About Surface Maps (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/synoptic/wxmaps.htm)
NWS Surface Map Keys/Legends (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/synoptic/images/wxsymbol_print.pdf)
I hope you found the information this week useful and educational. I know many have asked for these links and information, so I tried to combine it all together. Some of the information is repetitive, some more than what many want to get involved with and some just boring! I have not forgotten about the request to do a “Weather Primer” or "how to"…I have been working on the best solution. If anyone has any questions or would like more information about any of the topics covered, please feel free to contact me.
Thanks for reading this week!!
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