The week will start off with a chance of rain or even thunderstorms followed by sunny weather for Tuesday through Thursday. Rain chances will return Thursday Night and Friday and likely through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 60's and 70's with overnight lows down into the 40's and 50's. Small Craft Advisories will likely continue through Tuesday, with winds gusts over 25 knots and seas around 5 feet. Wednesday will see less wind and calmer seas, however the long period swell effects from Tropical Storm Rafael may start showing in the area. Winds will increase again, Thursday Night into Friday with the possibility of Small Craft Advisories again. Water conditions will vary from location to location and day by day. These longer forecasts will likely change. There are several factors this week affecting the Marine Forecast including timing on fronts and low pressure systems and the timing and track of Rafael. Surf conditions will see 1-2 foot waves most of the week with 2-3 and 3-4 foot waves later on Thursday into Friday.
Tropical Storm Rafael, which was Invest 98L is in the Atlantic Ocean 645 miles south of Bermuda. Winds are sustained at 70 mph with a Central Pressure of 985 mb. Rafael is expected to strengthen some, to 80 mph sustained winds. Rafael will likely impact Bermuda, but is expected to stay well off the east coast. However, a long period swell is expected from Rafael to impact our immediate area later Tuesday through Tursday.
A cold front extending from low pressure will move into and cross the area late Monday Afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday before moving offshore on Thursday. A strong low pressure system will bring a warm front through the region Thursday Night into Friday, followed by a cold front late Friday into Saturday.
Monday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 80% (day) chance of showers after 2pm& 80% (night) chance showers, upwards of an inch of rain today
High: Low 70's
Low: Upper 40’s
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 6:17pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NewMoon.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-4/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50
Tuesday
Sky: Sunny & mostly clear
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 60’s
Low: Low to mid 40’s
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 6:16pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-7/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50
Wednesday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: 30% chance all day of showers
Temperatures
High: Mid to upper 60’s
Low: Upper 40’s
Sunrise: 7:09am
Sunset: 6:15pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-27/50
Thursday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 0% (day) to slight chance, 40% (night) chance of showers
Temperatures
High: Low 70’s
Low: Low 50’s
Sunrise: 7:10am
Sunset: 6:13pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50
Friday
Sky: Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 50% chance of rain (this could increase as the week progresses)
Temperatures
High: Low 70's
Low: Low 40’s
Sunrise: 7:11am
Sunset: 6:12pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- 3/10
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/5
Monday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1015.gif)
Tuesday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1016.gif)
Wednesday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1017.gif)
Thursday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1018.gif)
Friday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1019.gif)
Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/HPCQPF12Z10151020.gif)
NHC Tropics Satellite
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropicsSatellite1015.gif)
NHC Rafael Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCRafaelTrack.gif)
Global Model Wave Period Tuesday Night 11 PM
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GlobalPeriod03Z1017on1015.png)
Global Model Wave Height Tuesday Night 11 PM
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GlobalHeights03Z1017on1015.png)
Global Model Period Wednesday Night 11 PM
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GlobalPeriod03Z1018on1015.png)
Global Model Wave Height Wednesday Night 11 PM
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GlobalHeight03Z1018on1015.png)
Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 61F
Monday Morning
Wind:
Seas:
Monday Afternoon
Wind: SW 10-15 knots gusts to 25 knots becoming W 5-10 knots then NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight
Seas: 1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet again after midnight, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Morning
Wind: NW 15-20 gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind: NW 15-20 gusts to 25 knots becoming NW 10-15 with gusts to 20 knots then 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas: 2 feet diminishing to 1 foot or less after midnight
Wednesday Morning
Wind: W 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind: SW 5 knots becoming 5-10 knots at night
Seas: 1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind: SE 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Friday Afternoon
Wind: S 10-15
Seas: 1 foot or less
Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHook10151019.jpg)
Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature: 63F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 14 sec..
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 16 to 21 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 13 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Manasquan Inlet Tides
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/MI10151019.jpg)
Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature: 62F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 18 to 25 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 3 to 4 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 12 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Cape May (Ocean) Tides
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMay10151019.jpg)
Delaware Bay
Water Temperature: 70F
Monday Morning
Wind:
Seas:
Monday Afternoon
Wind: SW 15-20 knots diminishing 10-15 knots at night, gusts to 25 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots after midnight
Seas: 2-3 feet becoming 2-4 feet after midnight, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Morning
Wind: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots at night then 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas: 2-4 feet becoming 2-3 feet at night
Wednesday Morning
Wind: N 5-10 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind: SW 5-10 knots becoming S 5-10 knots at
Seas: 2-3 feet becoming 2-4 at night
Thursday Morning
Wind: SE 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Thursday Afternoon
Wind: SE 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Friday Morning
Wind: SE 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Friday Afternoon
Wind: SE 10-15 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas: 2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/DelawareBay10151019.jpg)
Offshore Waters
Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature: 63F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas: WNW 6 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 13 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 12 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: S 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 10 sec.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/HycomSST0Z1015.png)
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/sst/Ncom_sst_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/currents/Ncom_Curr_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!
(http://www.njsaltwaterfisherman.com/buoyweather.jpg) (http://www.buoyweather.com)
*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!
*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)