NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums

NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on October 21, 2012, 04:36:55 PM

Title: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 21, 2012, 04:36:55 PM: This weeks weather will be nice with slightly above normal temperatures and sunny skies most of the week. Tuesday Night into Wednesday is the only chance of rain right now. High temperatures will get into the lower to mid 70's with overnight lows in the lower to mid 50's. Water conditions are rated good all week except for Midshore to Offshore locations on Monday are cautious with the possibility of Small Craft Advisories. No other advisories are forecast for this time. Surf conditions will be good, with normal conditions and waves in the 1-2 foot range or less for parts of the week.

The Tropics are showing some activity with two areas of invest that warrant watching. Invest 99L is at 70% for tropical development in the Caribbean/Atlantic Oceans and Invest 90L is at 20% for tropical development. The models are suggesting both could impact our coast in or around 7-10 days. However, at this point there is no development, just an area of clouds at this time.

High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Tuesday. Tuesday Night into Wednesday a frontal boundary/cold front will be forced over the area. High pressure will return for the end of the week.

Monday

Sky: Sunny and mostly clear
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance
High: Mid to upper 60's
Low: Upper 40’s
Sunrise: 7:14am
Sunset: 6:07pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingGibbous.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Tuesday
Sky: Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance (day), 30% chance (night) of showers
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 70’s
Low: Low 50’s
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 6:06pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingGibbous.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Wednesday
Sky: Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 20% chance (early in the day) showers, 0% to slight chance (night)
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 70’s
Low: Low 50’s
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 6:05pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingGibbous.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Thursday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low 70’s
Low: Low 50’s
Sunrise: 7:17am
Sunset: 6:03pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingGibbous.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-4/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Friday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low 70's
Low: Low 50’s
Sunrise: 7:19am
Sunset: 6:02pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingGibbous.jpg)
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-
Weather2Hunt.com-

Monday Surface Analysis

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1022.gif)

Tuesday Surface Analysis

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1023.gif)

Wednesday Surface Analysis

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1024.gif)

Thursday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1025.gif)

Friday Surface Analysis

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Surface1026.gif)

Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/HPCQPF0Z10211026.gif)
NHC Tropics Satellite

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics1021.gif)

Invest 99L Model Tracks

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Invest99LModelTracks.gif)

Invest 90L Model Tracks

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Invest90LTracks.gif)

Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 61F
Monday Morning
Wind: NW 10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Monday Afternoon
Wind: NW 10 knots becoming W 5-10 knots at night
Seas: 1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind: W 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind: S 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind: N 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind: E 5 knots becoming 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots at night diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas: 1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: SE 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind: SE 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind: SE 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Friday Afternoon
Wind: SE 5 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHook10221026.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHook102210261.jpg)

Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature: 63F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: S 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 5 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/MI10221026.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/MI102210261.jpg)

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature: 65F
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 5 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMay10221026.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMay102210261.jpg)

Delaware Bay
Water Temperature: 57F
Monday Morning
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Wind: NW 10-15 knots becoming W 5-10 knots at night
Seas: 1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind: SW 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind: SW 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind: N 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind: SW 5-10 knots becoming W at night and NE after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind: SE 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind: SE 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind: SE 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Friday Afternoon
Wind: SE 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/DelawareBay10221026.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/DelawareBay102210261.jpg)

Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature: 62F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: NW 4 feet at 4 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: NW 4 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 6 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: SW 3 feet at 4 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: E 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.

Hycom Satellite Sea Surface Temperatures

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/HycomSST0Z1021.png)

Hycom Satellite Sea Surface Currents

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/HycomSurfaceCurrents0Z1021.png)

NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/sst/Ncom_sst_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/currents/Ncom_Curr_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!
(http://www.njsaltwaterfisherman.com/buoyweather.jpg) (http://www.buoyweather.com)

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
Title: Re: Tropics Update Monday Morning
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 22, 2012, 12:13:50 PM: I want to update the Tropics situation before you hear the hype else where.

Invest 99L has become Tropical Depression #18 in the Caribbean. This will likely become Tropical Storm Sandy and then even Hurricane Sandy. From there it will likely evolve into a subtropical or hybrid type system if it further develops. Right now timing of development and track are very questionable. Conditions are not favorable south of Florida for strong tropical development. Last night, all of the models were in consensus on East Coast involvement. However, this morning, the US Model has shifted to the east quite a bit. The European Model has shifted more east and brings a significant storm directly along the NJ Coast. These models almost always go back and forth with each run. Aircraft Reconnaissance will be flying to the system tomorrow early in the morning. They will be able to get real time data, that can then be uploaded into the model computers at an attempt to obtain more accurate modeling. At this point, this system will affect NJ in some form. Either with a more direct effect or indirectly affecting water conditions. The timing window is between Monday through Wednesday.

I will keep you updated as necessary.

NHC Tropics Satellite

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics1022.gif)

NHC Tropical Depression #18 Official Track

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTrackTD18.gif)

Tropical Depression #18 Model Tracks

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/TD18ModelTracks.gif)

GFS Model 192 hours

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GFS0Z1022192hours.gif)

European Model 192 hours

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ECMWF0Z1022192hours.gif)

Tropical Depression #18 Visible Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-vis-long.html)

Tropical Depression #18 Enhanced Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-rb-long.html)
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Ms Fish on October 22, 2012, 12:33:24 PM: You're really smart, thank you for all the updates and info! clp
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Reel McCoy on October 22, 2012, 01:39:04 PM: Thank you for these reports t^
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Still Running on October 22, 2012, 04:38:09 PM: t^

I heard talk of chance of perfect storm conditions next week. :headscra:

Hope not
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Hotrod on October 22, 2012, 10:51:34 PM: t^ whs
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 22, 2012, 11:12:44 PM: Quote from: Still Running on October 22, 2012, 04:38:09 PM
t^

I heard talk of chance of perfect storm conditions net week. :headscra:

Hope not

The chance of a perfect storm are much less than the chance of a coastal hit by one or both of these storms and those chances are less than a complete miss all together. Conditions and timing would have to be perfect on now Tropical Storm Sandy and Tropical Depression #19, to meet, interact, combine and have enough time and conditions to re-organize and strengthen again. This is not impossible, but right now, they are not even sure if one of these will affect NJ. It is definitely something to watch, but don't get too wrapped up in the hype. I will let you know well in advance, if any actions need to be taken or what we can expect. Right now, there isn't much there except these inaccurate weather models that change every 6-12 hours. It's called the "windshield wiper" effect. Flip flopping back and forth. There is nothing more I dislike in the weather world than putting info out, rescinding it, then putting it back out, etc...So for now pcrn

TT^
Title: Re: NWS PHI/Mount Holly Weather Briefing
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 23, 2012, 12:09:32 PM: Here is Briefing #1 of many on the potential coastal storm next week. There is not any NEW information in this Briefing, that I have not mentioned or passed along over the last couple of days. This Briefing was issued to make people aware of the potential and possibility of a storm affecting the area.

NWS PHI Briefing #1 Tropical Storm Sandy (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Title: Re: Tropics/Coastal Storm Update Wednesday Morning
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 24, 2012, 11:59:12 AM: I want to update the situation in the tropics that could lead to a potential coastal storm for next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty on track, strength and timing, however, even the outlier models who were showing a more easterly track are moving back towards the west and impacting the eastern coastal states. Although, the National Hurricane Center, nor any NWS Office or Forecaster will officially say, each of their updates has also moved the track of the storm more east. Bottom line, we are going to be affected by a storm early next week. What type of storm, how much we are affected and just how bad the storm gets is yet to be determined and could change hours before arriving in the area.

Tropical Storm Sandy has been upgraded as of 11 AM to a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 973 mb already! Invest 90L/Tropical Depression #19 has become Tropical Storm Tony and will not affect the US at all, nor will it combine with Sandy to create a perfect storm scenario. The NHC is not forecasting Sandy to strengthen much more than 85 mph, but yesterday they were not forecasting this Hurricane status either. If Sandy hits the NJ Coast, it will likely not be tropical cyclone, but a hybrid, subtropical or extratropical system, what we know as a Nor'Easter. Just because it is not a hurricane does not mean that it cannot cause the same damage, it simply means it does not have a warm core and is not being driven by heat! Here is information on Sandy directly from the NHC:

Quote
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN
JAMAICA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

So right now, we are looking at some type of involvement in the NJ area. Be that just high seas, some wind, coastal flooding and and beach erosion or a full strike by a powerful Nor'Easter bringing damaging winds, flooding rains along the coast, record snowfall inland and to the north, coastal flooding with a storm surge and severe beach erosion. Sandy will affect the area sometime early to mid week around the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. This comes on already higher tides by 0.5-1.0 feet higher. Now is definitely the time to check emergency preparations and make sure you have everything necessary. It is also time to think about what you will do or need to do to secure your boats in the worst case scenario.

Below are some weather graphics and models to compare their solutions. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask. I will update as necessary. No hype or weather drama here...just the facts, just like our fishing reports!

NHC Tropics Satellite Wednesday October 21

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics1024_zps44aba145.gif)

NHC Official Sandy Track

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack_zpsc91cd2f9.gif)

NHC Official Tony Track

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTonyTrack_zps479e08ba.gif)

Sandy Model Tracks

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyModelTracks_zpsdb8f0d05.gif)

GFS Model 0Z Wednesday October 24 144 hours

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GFS0Z1024144hours_zpsbc746f8e.gif)

Euro Model 0Z Wednesday October 24 144 hours

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Euro0Z1024144_zpsd736c203.jpg)

GFS Model 12Z Wednesday October 24 84 hours

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GFS12Z102484hours_zps1b549ed9.gif)

NAM Model 12Z Wednesday October 24 84 hours

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NAM12Z102484hours_zps1141d989.gif)

5 Day Precipitation Totals

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/HPCQPF12Z10241029_zpsbae71bf9.gif)

Sandy Visibile Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-vis-long.html)

Sandy Enhanced Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-rb-long.html)
Title: Re: NWS Briefing #2
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 24, 2012, 12:26:24 PM: NWS Briefing #2 Wednesday October 24, 2012 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Hotrod on October 24, 2012, 12:27:03 PM: No Chance of it being snow right?
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Ms Fish on October 24, 2012, 12:34:06 PM: Quote from: Hotrod on October 24, 2012, 12:27:03 PM
No Chance of it being snow right?
SNOW!!!!!!!!! thud Stop it you!!!!!! thud
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 24, 2012, 01:33:43 PM: Quote from: Hotrod on October 24, 2012, 12:27:03 PM
No Chance of it being snow right?

I wouldn't say no right now. Sorry, I was reviewing some model runs with snowfall amounts. It will all depend on the track. If it stays just far enough off the coast and allows the northwesterly winds to pull down cold air along with all of the moisture, inland and northern parts of NJ, PA and northeast of NJ could certainly get snow. Along the coast, highly unlikely. If it comes directly into or along the coast, the snow chances drop for most of NJ because we are just too close to the center to allow any pulling down of cold air from the north. The current GFS which is taking this storm into Maine right now, is forecasting up to 6 inches along the NJ/PA Border and then northwestern NJ. Remember, the Nor'Easter last year brought significant and the biggest snowfall of last Winter around this same time period.

fcp TT^
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: fluke - u on October 24, 2012, 03:28:23 PM: t^..Thanks for your work.... chrz
Title: Re: Hurricane Sandy/Coastal Storm Update Wednesday Night
Post by: Pfishingruven on October 24, 2012, 07:48:58 PM: Just a quick update. The NHC Official Track for Hurricane Sandy has again, shifted west and puts the "cone of uncertainty" right against the NJ Coast around midday Monday as a Tropical Storm. Disregard the specific track or strength. This far out we just need to decide if this is going to directly affect us or not. From this Official Track, you have to know that there is a high chance NJ will get hit by Sandy or whatever she has evolved into by then. There is lots of talk about energy from Sandy breaking off and forming another Nor'Easter type storm. Whatever happens, NJ has a significant chance of being in the path of this storm. This can certainly change, and sometimes drastically, for the better or worse. I am certain this forecast is not the final call and will change over the next few days, but when the NHC, which is very conservative, moves the cone west by several hundreds of miles, they are pretty certain of this as well!

(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack102421Z.gif)
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Still Running on October 25, 2012, 05:36:22 AM: They are starting to talk about it a lot on the news.

Looks like a long weekend of pull the boat, don't pull the boat.

That's the one thing I don't miss is the worry of the boat in the water.
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: fellinger on October 25, 2012, 06:21:15 AM: Quote from: Still Running on October 25, 2012, 05:36:22 AM
They are starting to talk about it a lot on the news.

Looks like a long weekend of pull the boat, don't pull the boat.

That's the one thing I don't miss is the worry of the boat in the water.

I can leave it or take it..... IF it sinks it's an easier fix on my end LOL
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Fishin Dude on October 25, 2012, 09:35:56 AM: No fishing this weekend. I guess its working in the garage, straightening up my office, and playing with the dog.
Title: Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Oct 22-26, 2012
Post by: Ms Fish on October 25, 2012, 09:42:18 AM: I might pull "FISH" this weekend and get him all nice and cozy for the winter to come. :-\ Especially if the crapy weather is under way. :'( At 18.5 ft... it can be rough out there for me... but I'll see. Miiiight keep him in front of the house just incase I wanna sneak out to the V. Bridge... ;D