NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums
NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on October 25, 2012, 11:31:10 AM
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The 11AM National Hurricane Center update on Sandy has officially placed the track of the storm as making a direct hit on NJ! Sandy rapidly intensified last night with winds topping 110 mph and a central pressure of 956 mb. At one point this storm was a weak Category 3, a major hurricane. The NHC lists Sandy as being a Tropical Storm with a landfall Tuesday Morning. This is a LARGE storm. It will likely change from a tropical system to an extratropical storm. This might actually be worse than getting hit by a hurricane or tropical storm. Extratropical storms will spread out their wind fields over a larger area. So while, the strength that this storm hits NJ with is not definitive, expect a very strong storm to hit the coast. This will include sustained winds over 75 mph with higher gusts, heavy rains, inland, flash and coastal flooding, storm surge, and beach erosion. For the most part we can rule out snow, however some parts may see some snow on the tail end of this storm. Low temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 30's after this storm moves out. Expect widespread power outages as well.
The track and strength of this storm will likely change over the next few days, however, without a doubt, NJ will be in the path of this dangerous storm. Now is the time to start making any preparations necessary. At best we can expect a typical Nor'Easter that will bring wind, rain, flooding and beach erosion. At worst, this could be a massive, dangerous storm that could leave more destruction than Hurricane Irene caused!
All further updates will take place in this thread. I am expecting an Official Briefing Package from the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS PHI/Mount Holly within the next few hours. I will update as often as possible. Expect the media outlets to pick this up full swing today, which means the general public will begin to panic and rush around to make preparations.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics1025.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack102515Z.gif)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012
...SANDY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.
THE TROPICAL WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN HAITI
TODAY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 964
MB...28.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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t^ THANK YOU FOR ALL THE INFORMATION ... PLEASE KEEP IT UP ... THE INTEL YOU ARE GIVING US IS VERY HELPFUL IN PREPARING FOR THIS STORM t^
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Here is something I just received from Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips of WFTS ABC Action News in Tampa, Florida. This is the key component of this storm...
Tropical Meteorology 101: Here is why Sandy won't act like a "normal" hurricane. It will run into 50-60 knot shear zone in the next few days...even higher early next week. Shear cuts off the top of developing tropical systems and weakens them, HOWEVER, this same shear ENERGIZES non tropical storms. As Sandy transforms from a warm core (tropical) system, to a COLD core (non tropical) system as it passes over colder waters, the transformation will actually increase the wind field (Like traditional Noreasters) and strengthen it as well. So, the models won't do well with intensity or wind speed. That's where our experience helps out. Give it up for the human factor!! :)
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Here is something I just received from Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips of WFTS ABC Action News in Tampa, Florida. This is the key component of this storm...
Tropical Meteorology 101: Here is why Sandy won't act like a "normal" hurricane. It will run into 50-60 knot shear zone in the next few days...even higher early next week. Shear cuts off the top of developing tropical systems and weakens them, HOWEVER, this same shear ENERGIZES non tropical storms. As Sandy transforms from a warm core (tropical) system, to a COLD core (non tropical) system as it passes over colder waters, the transformation will actually increase the wind field (Like traditional Noreasters) and strengthen it as well. So, the models won't do well with intensity or wind speed. That's where our experience helps out. Give it up for the human factor!! :)
clp clp
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t^ THANK YOU FOR ALL THE INFORMATION ... PLEASE KEEP IT UP ... THE INTEL YOU ARE GIVING US IS VERY HELPFUL IN PREPARING FOR THIS STORM t^
I agree Scott... its huge!!! You really help alot of people.... including me. msfsh I have time to pull my boat out. At least on land he will be ok! Thanks so much for all the info and heads up! Great job...as always!!!
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Current Briefing Package from the NWS PHI/Mount Holly Meteorologist in Charge Gary Szatkowski for Thursday October 25, 2012.
NWS PHI Briefing Package #3 Thursday October 25, 2012 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
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Can we have updates sent to our phones?
pcrn
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Can we have updates sent to our phones?
pcrn
Might be the only way to get information! I can pretty much guarantee that the first gust of wind and my power will be out.
Florida is looking real nice this weekend ;D!
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Good time to head to Disney World with the kids Matt.
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Good time to head to Disney World with the kids Matt.
Isn't that the truth ;D!!
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The 5PM update is already out from the NHC on Hurricane Sandy. Not much has changed. The NHC has extended the track of Sandy and increased the intensity of the storm at landfall, to that still of a hurricane. Regardless of Sandy's exact landfall, winds will be in the 80+mph range with much higher gusts. Up to 8 inches of rain could fall just with this storm and tides will be running 1-2 feet higher than normal with a storm surge of several feet possible. If this storm hits with the intensity the models are forecasting at this point in time, this will be a catastrophic storm. Record flooding and beach erosion could occur, as well as sustained wind damage.
Be prepared!!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics102521z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack102521Z.gif)
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Here is an interesting compilation of every model's track on Sandy. As you can see, most are in agreement of landfall somewhere between Long Island and Maryland, with NJ being in the bulls eye! Regardless of where the storm actually makes landfall, we will still get the same effects when this becomes extratropical. These models will be more accurate now, as well. Not only because of the time period it is forecasting in, but also because how much data they are receiving. Between Air Recon flights and twice as many weather balloons being launched 2 extra times a day, the models are getting the best data they can get!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/ModelTracksSandy.png)
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thud thud nts nts
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That outgoing tide Sun AM at the Hook sure looks to be an interesting tide to fish pre-storm.
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I did not see this posting or I would not of stared another one. slt
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http://magicseaweed.com/Casino-Pier-Surf-Report/387/
10ft surf fcp
There's a good chance IBSP will be a wreck for next weekends planned gathering.
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Good point Chris...
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http://magicseaweed.com/Casino-Pier-Surf-Report/387/
10ft surf fcp
There's a good chance IBSP will be a wreck for next weekends planned gathering.
Chris, I'm seeing surf wave heights of 15+ feet and inshore wave heights of 24+ feet!!
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fcp fcp fcp even more worser
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They say because of the path, it's going to be worse then Irene. rgmn
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I guess I will pull the boat out for a few days. I hope a free soars not fall on it by my house. :P
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They say because of the path, it's going to be worse then Irene. rgmn
I heard the pressure is going to be somewhere @944mb when it hits land. That's a lot lower than Irene was.
Installing a generator switchover panel tomorrow, just in case.
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As of 5AM they have the path a little south now
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As of 5AM they have the path a little south now
That's going to be a lot of water being pushed through the bay and up the river fcp
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As I see it the wind and storm surge as always is the problem in most storms. With this one time will be a factor as well. By time I mean the storm is a slow mover and that will equate in the storm being here longer that usual.
With the storm being here longer the winds (if we listen to NHC) will be out of the east for a number of days not allowing the bays to flush out. Here lies the problem the high tides will keep building in height with each tide. If the bays do not have the time to flush out all the properties along the bay will be in trouble.
The last major Halloween storm we had was a good example of this. We had to evacuate the barrier islands and do search and rescues in Ortley Beach and Lavellette with the help of the Nation Guard. I hope and pray this one takes a different course and speeds up in the upper latitudes.
Our best case sinareo will be the storm will hit to the north of us which will give us the opposite effect.
Be safe out there and as we wait for further information it is a good time to get your emergency plans in order. If you need help there just ask and I will post some guidelines.
Paul
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Not a lot of changes with Sandy. It is still a Category 1 Hurricane, with 80 mph sustained winds. The wind field is beginning to widen or spread out along the entirety of the storm. This is a slow transition process from tropical to extratropical. What will cause the tropical portion of the storm to fall apart, will actually strengthen the extratropical storm. The NHC has moved the track south some, bringing Sandy into Cape May and up the Delaware. This does not change anything for NJ. Unlike a tropical cyclone, winds are not going to be concentrated in and around the center. The wind field will be the entire storm. This is a large storm, so whether it makes landfall in Long Island or Maryland, NJ will feel the same effects.
This new track is actually a worse scenario for the coast and areas along the Delaware. The first reason this is worse is that it will leave most of NJ on the east side of the storm. This is the strongest side of any cyclonic storm. This path will expose the entire coast as well as inland areas to the strongest winds and rains. The other reason this is worse is because of the storm surge. The Delaware is going to act as a funnel, channeling a storm surge of 4-5 feet up the Bay and River. This is going to cause a great deal of coastal and inland flooding! Forecast tidal increase of 3-4 feet for Sandy Hook area as well.
A couple of comments I want to address. First, this will likely be worse than Irene for several reasons. First, Irene was in the process of weakening or falling apart. Dry air became entrained in the storm just off of the Delmarva. This dry air got into the core/eye of Irene and destroyed any organization she had. Still, she caused a lot of damage and power outages. Another reason this could be worse is the difference between tropical and extratropical, widening the wind field. Another reason is the unfavorable conditions that caused Irene to dissipate, will actually drive an extratropical storm. The atmosphere will be very favorable for strengthening. Extratropical storms are not as affected by land either. Mid latitude cyclones can form over land, like the system that just came through the upper midwest and into the northeast a week or so ago. Another issue will be the central pressure. Models are all agreeing on a sub 950mb central pressure, with some going down in the 940's and 930's. This will not be impossible, but highly likely with the favorable conditions. For reference a 950mb pressure is equivalent to a Category 3 Hurricane and below 944mb is equal to a Category 4 Hurricane! Now, take that wind and spread it out over several hundreds of miles...
I am not hyping this storm, just passing along what could be and what will likely happen. IF this storm takes a Maryland to Long Island landfalling track, at the intensity the models and meteorologists are suggesting, this is going to be a dangerous storm of historic proportions. Now is the time to be ready!! Also, temperatures for next week will dip down into the 30's at night after this storm moves out. So, if you lose power, you will need to have an alternate source of heat!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics102612Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTrackSandy10269Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMayStormSurge.jpg)
Cape May Forecast Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=me&type=both&stn=njmay)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookStormSurge.jpg)
Sandy Hook Storm Surge Forecast (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&stn=njsand&type=both)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Sandy Visible Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-vis-long.html)
Sandy Enhanced Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-rb-long.html)
I will update as necessary. Briefing from the NWS should be out in a couple of hours and I anticipate some type of statement from the State and Governor, as well as County and Local Governments.
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Matt,
What side of the storm gets more rain?
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As I see it the wind and storm surge as always is the problem in most storms. With this one time will be a factor as well. By time I mean the storm is a slow mover and that will equate in the storm being here longer that usual.
With the storm being here longer the winds (if we listen to NHC) will be out of the east for a number of days not allowing the bays to flush out. Here lies the problem the high tides will keep building in height with each tide. If the bays do not have the time to flush out all the properties along the bay will be in trouble.
The last major Halloween storm we had was a good example of this. We had to evacuate the barrier islands and do search and rescues in Ortley Beach and Lavellette with the help of the Nation Guard. I hope and pray this one takes a different course and speeds up in the upper latitudes.
Our best case sinareo will be the storm will hit to the north of us which will give us the opposite effect.
Be safe out there and as we wait for further information it is a good time to get your emergency plans in order. If you need help there just ask and I will post some guidelines.
Paul
Exactly, Paul! Great information!! We need a northern hit and that could make a tremendous difference for the state as a whole and the general coastal areas. Of course, the models are not trending that way at all...but we are still several days out and this could change.
slt TT^
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Matt,
What side of the storm gets more rain?
Traditionally, with a tropical storm, the east side of the storm. If you split the storm into 4 quadrants, the northeast quadrant or right upper quadrant is always the worst with the most rain, highest winds and strongest thunderstorms. Water and moisture gets wrapped up and moved into the cyclonic motion. In an extratropical storm or hybrid the east side will still be the strongest side, however, winds will be spread out along the entirety of the storm. Rain will likely be strongest on the east side as well, however, each storm can be unique and be more right or left sided. We won't really know where the rains form again in this storm until it moves north of the Florida area.
They are only calling for 6-13 inches total from this storm, which in the realm of cyclonic storms is not a lot of rain. However, it will be enough to cause flooding! This is where it loses it's tropical properties of excessive rain. 13 inches is better than 24+ inches that fell in Florida and the Gulf Coast with TS Debby and Isaac!
TT^
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t^ Thanks
rgmn Thats my side. rgmn
For more info:
http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes
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One word......... what the F!?
Ok maybe more than 1 word but you get my concern.
I'm flying to Vermont on Sat pm to teach Sun am and return right after. Hope the conditions hold out so I can get back.
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One word......... what the F!?
Ok maybe more than 1 word but you get my concern.
I'm flying to Vermont on Sat pm to teach Sun am and return right after. Hope the conditions hold out so I can get back.
You are definitely cutting it close!!
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As of 5AM they have the path a little south now
That's going to be a lot of water being pushed through the bay and up the river fcp
Agreed...Im pulling 'FISH" tomorrow....even if the storm took another turn, last time, when I saw the people who DIDNT pull their's boats, they sunk or broke in half. Noooooooooooo thanks! Matt, thank you so much for all the information. Youre truly a saint and will be helping so many people get prepared. Such as me! msfsh
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NWS PHI/Mount Holly just released Briefing Package #4. Not many changes to it. I'm not sure when "OFFICIAL" word will come and they will start considering evacuations, etc...
NWS PHI Briefing Package #4 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Paul, do you have any idea the timeline for this? I would have expected a statement already from the Governor...something like "Get the hell off our beaches!" ;D, but nothing has come out yet. I hope they don't wait too long?!
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My unofficial word Matt (as I was talking to Toms River OEM this morning over at the beach in Ortley) is that they are opening up the EOC Saturday but not talking about evacuation times yet. They will be having a phone conference meeting with all the EOC Sat on the conditions.
Evacuations might start Sunday during the day or earlier depending on the latest NWS readings.
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I will post some pictures later but right now there are tons of front end loaders closing up the beach access points and building a second set of dunes to help stop the erosion on the main dunes.
This is the first time talking to my old boss that he is concerned this might be the big one we all have been waiting for. I got pictures of the Surf Club and the Golden Gull as they might be history, but we will have to wait and see.
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Thanks Paul! If you want my opinion, I agree that this has the markings and the makings of the "big one!" nosmly
I am hearing talk of mandatory and voluntary evacuations in Cape May County, but I was unable to confirm this. If you live in Cape May County, please make sure you check on evacuation orders.
If you live on any barrier island or in an area that is low lying or regularly floods, please consider evacuating even if you are not ordered to do so. 4-6 surge is a lot of water! Think back to Isaac on the Gulf Coast and all the damage it did...
TT^
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So true Matt. We are also looking at maybe 6 high tide scheduled to occur during this surge. The back bays will not have time to get rid of each tide change. If you are in the back bay area please make sure your evacuation plans are in order and follow the directions of your OEM Officials on this one.
Paul
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Going out to secure my antennas. Right now the Hurricane Watch is on 14.325MHz is operating full time and the net will be operating on 40 meters if 20 goes out. I have to boost the lines on my 40 meter antenna to handle higher winds. Be back in a little bit.
Paul
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Here you go
http://k2jji.org/2012/08/28/the-hurricane-watch-net-is-active-14-325mhz/
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Im going to start battening down the hatches tommorow If Irene put 2" of water in my house how much is Sandy gonna 5hrug I hope Bobs done with that arc soon looks like ill be renting it
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Thanks Rick. I usually run phone patches for the net up in this area. Plus fill the NHC in on readings in and around the area of Toms River.
If anyone wants to know more about what we do besides talk on the radio around the world this is a good place for up to the minute information as this net is located within the NHC in florida.
http://www.hwn.org/
The call sign for the station within the NHC is WX4NHC.
Hope this helps...
Paul
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Since I moved the boat down to Manasquan, I sure miss having that Keansburg floodgate between me and the storm surge.. and with the lousy timing of this one coming on the full moon tides, thats what I fear the most nosmly Had them pull Fluka out today.. Hope everyone stays safe down there chrz chrz
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Not much changes. Sandy has weakened a bit, as expected going into colder waters. The wind field continues to broaden and spread out from the center. This is the transitioning period from tropical to extratropical. I noticed some very, very dry air becoming entrained in Sandy from the south. I did not notice any mention of this air in any of the discussion from the NHC. The track has been brought slightly farther south now into the Delmarva Peninsula. This does not change anything for the area. They have upgraded the intensity of the storm at this point. Models have also upgraded, showing central pressures of 934mb thud. That about sums it up cfzd!! A 934mb storm would be unprecedented in this area. The New England Hurricane of 1938 also known as the Long Island Express had a pressure of 938mb. Of course, each storm is unique and no single storm is ever like another one in history.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics102618Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack18Z.gif)
Here are the latest models runs of Storm Surge Forecasts for Atlantic City and Sandy Hook. Cape May is unchanged.
Sandy Hook is showing 10+ feet over MLLW and 5-6 over normal hide tide marks!!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ACStormSurgeForecast10251930Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookStormSurgeForecast10261930Z.jpg)
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Thanks Rick. I usually run phone patches for the net up in this area. Plus fill the NHC in on readings in and around the area of Toms River.
If anyone wants to know more about what we do besides talk on the radio around the world this is a good place for up to the minute information as this net is located within the NHC in florida.
http://www.hwn.org/
The call sign for the station within the NHC is WX4NHC.
Hope this helps...
Paul
t^
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Small Craft Advisory for all NJ Coastal Waters tonight through Saturday followed by a Gale Watch.
Small Craft Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
ANZ452>455-271000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.121027T0800Z-121028T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0012.121028T0000Z-121028T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT.
* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY AND
7 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.
&&
$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
ANZ450-451-271000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.121027T1400Z-121028T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY...
* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SATURDAY
BECOMING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.
* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET SATURDAY BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
&&
$$
Gale Watch
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
ANZ452>455-271000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.121027T0800Z-121028T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0012.121028T0000Z-121028T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT.
* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY AND
7 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.
&&
$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
ANZ430-431-271000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0012.121028T0000Z-121028T1200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET OVER LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND AROUND 2 FEET
OVER UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.
&&
$$
-
I will be out this evening at a school Halloween Party for my son. Which is good because I think Halloween and Trick or Treat are going to be lost to this storm. If anyone has any questions please feel free to email me at matt@njswf.com or look me up in the Contacts(on the last page) and call my cell. If I don't answer, leave me a message and I will get right back to you.
There should not be any major changes this evening. I will update when I get in tonight.
TT^
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You have been working hard Matt
Take some time off and enjoy the party.
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Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?
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Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?
Don't know if this is what you are looking for Bob, but it may be helpful for some.
http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/evacuation-routes.html
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Here is a link for JCP&L customers to track power outages. They also say with the forecast people can be without power 7 to 10 days.
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj_m.html
They are my customer and one of the guys stopped by today, he said they were told to pack an 8 day go bag.
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10 INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME TO PREPARE.
SOME SUGGESTED PRE-STORM ACTIONS ARE:
1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.
2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR, BE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.
3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES, MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.
4. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING AND COOKING.
5. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE, SECURE OR STORE IT INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.
6. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES.
7. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE, CONSIDER MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BECOME DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.
8. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE DISABLED, CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE IN AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.
9. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE, BE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.
$$
NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
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Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?
Bob Your Local Police should have all that info as each and every county requires each town to have one. I know Monmouth County disaster agency has It.
I got my Generac 5800 set to go today. just final hook up to the main Panel thou a cross over Panel next to it. also picked up a Backup Sump Pump at Loews . will return it if I do not use it.
Got 25 Gallons of gas on hand but if this lasts 5-7 Days looking for gas will be fun. will hook up to Run The sump Pump, Refrigerator. some lighting. and Optimum Router for Phone, Internet and small TV. The cross over has 6 breakers But the more you use the more gas you burn. I guess shutting down at night 7 hours would help also.
Got Coleman propane stove . lantern ,Heater and 2 20-lb tanks filled for the BBQ and another heater. Food water OK. Batteries Got, Flashlights Got, All vehicles Gassed full.
Snow blower gassed and at the ready, 5hrug ya never know look at last year.
Oh and I enclosed The Gen Set weather tight except for exhaust and removable Panels for Access to starting fueling . and a heavy chain attached and anchored last yer Gen Sets were stolen still running. cfzd I hope I am ready , Bill
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Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?
Don't know if this is what you are looking for Bob, but it may be helpful for some.
http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/evacuation-routes.html
Good link Joe. But, if I remember from last year, they don't update that too often (or at all) during the storm. I was hoping there was a website that will list all of the townships that are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders.
As you know, I am only a couple blocks from the bay. Last year we had a voluntary and we stayed at my brother-in-law's house in Jackson.
Here is a link for JCP&L customers to track power outages. They also say with the forecast people can be without power 7 to 10 days.
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj_m.html
Bookmarked. Thanks Rick. t^
Bob Your Local Police should have all that info as each and every county requires each town to have one. I know Monmouth County disaster agency has It.
Thanks Bill. t^
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Keep up the good work Matt. t^ A lot of eyes are on this thread.
Not to steal your thunder Matt, but I don't think you can have too much information when something like this happens. Here's a link to a Facebook page we were watching during the big hurricane last year.
http://www.facebook.com/JerseyShoreHurricaneNews?ref=ts&fref=ts (http://www.facebook.com/JerseyShoreHurricaneNews?ref=ts&fref=ts)
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Matt got him beat,,, they get their info from Matt ;D
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Bob your local Office of Emergency Management should have that information. Check them out on line first.
Here are a few for Ocean County
Toms River
Pine Belt Arena, High School North, 1245 Old Freehold Ave. Toms River
Tuckerton
Tuckerton Elementary School, Marine Street, Tuckerton
Pinelands Regional High School, Nugentown Road, Tuckerton
I hope this helps...
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Thanks Bucktail and I have no problem with many options for information. Jersey Shore Hurricane News is teamed up with NJ Severe WX which is a forecaster, not a degreed meteorologist, although he does have a degree in a science field. He is also part of a larger weather group of actual meteorologists. He knows his weather and gives accurate, factual information as well! TT^
Thanks Rod ;D!!
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Not many changes to add tonight. Models and guidance will be all over the place and I will spare you the flip flopping, windshield wiper effect. Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Sandy is a Category 1 Hurricane with 75mph winds and a central pressure that has dropped again to 969mb. This is the transitioning phase. Sandy is just barely moving at 7mph at 10 degrees almost due north. Wind field has broadened some more. Track is mostly unchanged and storm surge all the same for the 3 areas in NJ that are forecast.
Here is the 4th Briefing Package from the NWS PHI. Governor Christie will likely declare a State of Emergency for all of NJ tomorrow.
I will update this in the AM. Hopefully we will have some more definitive answers.
NWS PHI Briefing Package #4 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
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Sorry, this is a little late. There is a lot of information to digest this morning. I am condensing and linking many areas to cut down the size of these posts. Hopefully, this will condense all of the necessary information into a manageable and easily read summary.
A few changes this morning with Sandy. Winds are unchanged at 75 mph, central pressure is down to 960mb and dropping, moving NNE (20 degrees) at 10 mph. There is still some weakening going on due to the transition to extratropical which will have finished around the 72 hour mark or just about as she makes landfall on the East Coast. The track has also changed moving north again bringing the storm into Cape May County and up the Delaware, again. The models are not backing down on this sub 940mb intensity storm. Storm surges are mostly unchanged except for Sandy Hook which has increased again.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics102712Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack102712Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookStormSurge10271330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ACStormSurge10271330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMayStormSurge10271330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PhillyStormSurge10271330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyRainfall.gif)
Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/271159.shtml)
Sandy will affect 66+ million people. There is an updated NWS PHI Briefing Package #6 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)(#5 was missed sometime during the night), however, the Package does not say much. The NWS has issued several Watches and Advisories this morning. Two Counties have declared State of Emergencies, Salem and Cape May. Lowering of Lakes and Reservoirs is being done today as well as any flood gates for certain towns such as Hoboken. Additional information on actions being taken by State, County and Local Government can be found here NJ OEM Updates (http://readynj.posterous.com/)
Current Advisories, Watches & Warnings
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PHIWatches10271.jpg)
Small Craft Advisory (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=small%20craft%20advisory)
Coastal Flood Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal%20flood%20watch)
Flood Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=flood%20watch)
Storm Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=storm%20watch)
High Wind Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=high%20wind%20watch)
Clouds will start making an appearance later today from outer bands of Sandy. Storm effects will start Sunday later in the day with Monday and Tuesday being the worst of the storm making landfall sometime overnight. Expect 75+mph sustained winds with higher gusts, 6-10 inches of rain with locally higher amounts in southern areas, coastal flooding with 4-6 feet of storm surge, inland flooding, flash flooding, Delaware Bay and River flooding, and beach erosion from 10-12 foot waves.
Today will likely be the last day you will be able to evacuate and make preparations. Please convey this information to family and friends. Also, now is the time to test any items you have stored away in preparation for a storm. Also, make sure you have some form of Weather Notifications through your cell phone or NOAA Weather Radio, etc...It is possible that I will be limited by power outages, so have at least a backup plan. Anyone who needs Twitter or App links to obtain weather information, please let me know.
I have not over dramatized this storm, but this is going to be a massive storm with possible catastrophic damage! This could very well be a historic storm with damage not seen in most of our lifetimes. I have looked back at analysis maps of previous storms and they cannot even compare with what the models have CONSISTENTLY forecast!! Now is the time to be safe and think about the safety of lives over property. Sandy has already killed 21 or so people in her bath through the islands and will likely take more. Please don't become a statistic or let anyone you know do so either!
I will update as necessary. Stay Safe!!
-Matt TT^
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Governor Christie has declared a State of Emergency for the entire state of NJ. This joins all surrounding states on the East Coast here.
NJ State of Emergency (http://readynj.posterous.com/governor-christie-declares-state-of-emergency)
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There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City. All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!
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There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City. All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!
It's getting serious up in here! Please head the warnings. Us in emergency services HATE rescuing stupid people who refuse to leave when they've had adequate warning to help themselves.
Pride is strong. Hurricanes are stronger!
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There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City. All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!
cfzd Wow
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There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City. All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!
cfzd Wow
YEA Eddie
I think this is just CRAP--not one mention about peoples lives after the CG spot.
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this is a crazy storm cell coming through , hope everyone is prepared , cape may county mandatory evac , if anyone is wondering what that means basically what the state police will do is shut down the parkway SOUTH around exit 17 so if u need to get down to your boat or house after today .. take the back roads ..
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There are really no big changes to report with the 5PM Advisory. Sandy is basically unchanged in strength, speed or direction. The track has been adjusted yet again, back across Cape May County and then inland. Storm surges are looking around the same at 5-8 feet or so. **A note here, media agencies are reporting a 10 foot storm surge. While this is possible, this is not what the models are showing and this is not the official forecast. A total of 10 feet of water over Mean Lower Low Water is correct, but there is normally a 3-5 foot high tide mark in those numbers.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack102721Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandySatellite.jpg)
The NWS has issued several Warnings for the area at this time:
Tropical Storm Warning (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=tropical%20storm%20warning)
Storm Warning (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=storm%20warning)
Coastal Flood Warning (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal%20flood%20warning)
You may see various different type of Warnings and Watches posted. Just know that there will be wind, rain, flooding and storm surge. What the NWS wants to call it is up to them. There is a lot of confusion(which is RIDICULOUS) among the NWS because of the change from tropical to post tropical. Some locations have Hurricane Watches and Warnings, some have Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings while other area offices are going with generalized wind and flood watches/warnings. Regardless of what they call it, you know what to expect.
I will update later tonight. Pretty much a waiting game now...
-
NWS PHI Briefing Package #7 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
-
Not many changes with the 8PM or 11PM Advisory. Sandy is still at 75mph moving NE/40 degrees at 14mph with a central pressure of 960mb. The track has shifted north into the greater Atlantic City area for landfall. Storm surge forecast is down slightly for the areas and the models have backed off of the bullish pressures they were forecasting at landfall. The GFS is calling 954mb, the Euro 947mb and the NAM at 960mb. Sandy is tied as the second largest tropical cyclone with a radius to the northeast side of 450 miles. Sandy is also setting up to be a left sided storm...unlike what I mentioned earlier with most of the rain on the east and northeast side, this storm has most of the rain on the west and southwest side of the storm. This could change, but the models are agreeing with this as well. This will limit the total rainfall for the east side of the storm, which is good for most of NJ, NY, PA. Being non-tropical will also limit the amount of moisture flowing in and being pulled into the east and northeast side.
There is not much else to report. Watches and Warnings will continue throughout the event. This storm should not have thunderstorms or severe weather associated with it. This means no tornadoes that are so common with tropical systems moving onshore. At some point this will go from forecasting to nowcasting event sometime tomorrow evening. Expect rain and some gustier winds as a preview of what's to come for tomorrow during the day.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack10280Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookStormSurge1028230Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ACStormSurge1028230Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMayStormSurge1028230Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PhillyStormSurge1028230Z.jpg)
Here is a neat website at the NWS if you live along any rivers. You can click on the monitoring station and it will give you observations and forecasts as well as flood stages. If you are near a river check it out!
NWS River Monitoring (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=phi)
Hopefully, everyone is prepped and ready. Be safe and smart.
Updates to follow.
-
That forecast is better news. Let's hope. t^
-
That forecast is better news. Let's hope. t^
:headscra: 5hrug
-
Everyone please stay safe. No material thing is worth risking your life. I canceled a business trip to Philadelphia, so will be home to ride this out. I live on a hill, so not worried about flooding, just losing power. I have enough food, beer, wine, blackberry brandy, cigs and miscellaneous helpers so should be fine for a few days. I just have to go get some ice this afternoon to put in the coolers in case I need to store some food if I lose power.
The new forecast calls for less rain in NNJ, but anyone along the coast is in for some very serious flooding as the water will pile up as we go through the next few days. This is the most current marine forecast.
ANZ450-451-281915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
335 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
TODAY
NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM...DECREASING TO 1 NM OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT
NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. SEAS
12 TO 17 FT...BUILDING TO 14 TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MON
NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. SEAS 13 TO
18 FT...BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS.
MON NIGHT
N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...BECOMING SE 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 65 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS.
TUE
SE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT...BECOMING S
25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO
19 FT. SHOWERS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
TUE NIGHT
S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 17 FT...SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
WED
SW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
9 TO 12 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
Tight Lines and stay safe,
Bob G chrz slt
-
The news is reporting the Shrewsbury river is on Rt 36 already and we are 36 hours before the storm. rgmn
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Here are 2 sites to view the ocean. I know they have been posted before, but in case you missed that, enjoy the view. NJsurfer is in Monmouth Beach and updates every 5 minutes. The surfers view has cams from Cape May up to the Rockaways in NY. The only pain with this site is you have to refresh after about 90 seconds of viewing.
http://www.njsurfer.com/ (http://www.njsurfer.com/)
http://thesurfersview.com/ (http://thesurfersview.com/)
Tight Lines,
Bob G chrz slt chrz
-
Bahrs landing fuel dock is already under water at high tide
-
Got a helpful hint from a family member down in Florida that has been thru many hurricanes.
They said take Gallon storage bags (the zip type) Fill them 1/2 to 2/3rds of the way with water and pack your freezer with them. (i would imagine you would want to remove as much air as you can.
Due to the water being in bags, it will form itself around the items in your freezer, and you will be able to fit quite a few. Not only have you given yourself a ready supply of clean drinking water if needed....but if you do loose power the frozen bags of water will help keep your food cold till power is restored.
Im doing a test run now to make sure the bags dont break......1 with no air, 1 with a little air.....ill post up in a couple hours to let you know how it worked out.......
-
Sandy is currently at 75mph, moving NE/40 degrees at 10mph with a central pressure of 951mb. Storm surge forecast is slightly higher today, back to the 6-8 feet rise. Models are still not intensifying the storm much more. We will just have to wait and see...models are extremely bad for forecasting intensity. Rainfall totals have decreased by a couple of inches. Track has moved north, with a landfall on Ocean County as a post tropical hurricane with hurricane force winds. Models have show winds around 100mph. So, the area will see 75-80mph winds with higher gusts. Multiple Warnings are in effect for wind and flooding. Wave height guidance has increased for the coast with 18 foot waves for the Barnegat Inlet, 37+ foot waves midshore to offshore and still 15 foot surf. Coastal flooding has already occurred in many areas with ocean and bay waters already over roadways and boardwalks.
Today, winds and rains will increase. Coastal waters will continue to rise and flooding conditions may be felt way ahead of the main event! At the end of this high tide cycle, there is low to moderate flooding already with 3 more high tide cycles to go during the duration of the storm.
Nothing more that can be done, except ride out this storm and follow its progress. Now is the time to get out if you need to evacuate or are being threatened with flooding. Many roads will likely be impassable by later tonight!
Stay Safe!!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics102812Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCSandyTrack102812Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyRainfall-1.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookStormSurge10281330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/AtlanticCityStormSurge10281330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMayStormSurge10281330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMayStormSurge10281330Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NWSPHIWarnings.jpg)
NWS NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/nj.php?x=1)
NWS PA Advisories, Watches & Warnings (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/pa.php?x=1)
-
Got a helpful hint from a family member down in Florida that has been thru many hurricanes.
They said take Gallon storage bags (the zip type) Fill them 1/2 to 2/3rds of the way with water and pack your freezer with them. (i would imagine you would want to remove as much air as you can.
Due to the water being in bags, it will form itself around the items in your freezer, and you will be able to fit quite a few. Not only have you given yourself a ready supply of clean drinking water if needed....but if you do loose power the frozen bags of water will help keep your food cold till power is restored.
Matt, this is great info! It definitely helps. I did this for Irene and kept my freezer frozen for about 18 hours longer than it should have.
Another thing...if you run the risk of losing water. Fill the bathtub up, that way you have water for flushing and washing!
-
11.5 foot Surge will be devistating in our area. thud
-
11.5 foot Surge will be devistating in our area. thud
Yes, 6 1/2 feet over normal high tide and 11 1/2 feet over MLLW is going to be destructive and historic!
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They are forecasting 15' swells reaching the beach every 15 seconds. Not god...
-
At this time we are getting higher winds of 12mph gusting to over 18mph out of the NE. Barometer is 29.77 and falling.
There is a definite change form this morning. We are all hunkered down and as ready as we ever will be. All my radio equipment is working , I will be on the air shortly with the National Hurricane Watch net. Lets see if all the antennas stay up through the storm.
Paul
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Here is a graphic of the Storm Surge with a zoomed in view of NJ. Key under first graphic is the same for the second graphic.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormSurgeGraphic2.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormSurgeGraphic.jpg)
-
NWS PHI Weather Briefing Package #8 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
-
NJ low tides are wrapping up and heading into high tides again. Low tides were an average of 2.5-3.5 feet higher than normal.
-
Pretty much sums up this storm
000
NOUS41 KPHI 281841
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-291200-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...
1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.
2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.
3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.
4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.
5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!
$$
NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
NWS PHI Public Information Statement (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0)
-
Although Sandy will bring less rainfall than most tropical storms, they are still calling for 6-12 inches. This is still enough to cause some flash flooding and inland flooding conditions. Take a look at this link and check the county you reside in for the amount of rain needed to cause flash flooding conditions over a set amount of time 1, 3, 6 or 12 hours.
NWS Flash Flood Guidance (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php)
Flash FLood Guidance NJ (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?location=NJ&zoom_map=state&duration=1)
If anyone needs help finding the information, let me know.
Thanks,
Matt
-
Sandy is currently 75mph winds moving NE/50 degrees at 15mph with a central pressure of 952mb. Track is back to southern NJ. Storm surges are up about 1/2 feet at the 5PM Advisory. Rain bands are starting to show in NJ with wind gusts over 50mph in southern areas. Water levels are already 5-6 feet above MLLW. Some areas already have moderate to major coastal flooding. Conditions will continue to deteriorate with the passing of time. Here are some graphics and a link to a satellite taking 1 minute images of Sandy around the clock.
Be safe!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTropics102821Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTrack102821Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookStormSurge10282130Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ACStormSurge10282130Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMayStormSurge10282130Z.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PhillyStormSurge10282130Z.jpg)
(https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/60306_4028328672203_1612730401_n.jpg)
GOES 14 Satellite Images of Sandy (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev%2Flindsey%2Floops%2Fgoes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=50)
-
NWS PHI Briefing Package #9 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
-
Matt in caparison to irene what was the tidal surge for the her
-
Matt in caparison to irene what was the tidal surge for the her
Hurricane Irene's max surge was only 6.2 feet and that was in NC. For this area 2-5 feet with 11.27 inches of rain, 40-50mph winds with gusts to 60+mph. Completely different beast too, but gives you a reference.
TT^
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Matt in caparison to irene what was the tidal surge for the her
Hurricane Irene's max surge was only 6.2 feet and that was in NC. For this area 2-5 feet with 11.27 inches of rain, 40-50mph winds with gusts to 60+mph. Completely different beast too, but gives you a reference.
TT^
Irene Sandy
Rain 11.27" 11" locally
Surge 6.2' 11.5' +
wind 50mph w/60 mph gust 60mph w/75 gusts
fcp thud rgmn pcrn :'( cfzd chrz
Soory for the emoticon overload but it tells the story
-
Sandy still has 75mph winds, moving NE/35 degrees at 14mph with a central pressure of 950mb. Sandy should start making that northwest turn into NJ. Track keeps moving, but it is looking more and more like a central to southern NJ landfall. Winds have picked up quite a bit over the entire area with bands of rain moving onshore. There is a lot of flooding in the moderate to major category already throughout coastal NJ. Power outages are very low right now.
Be safe!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NHCTrack10293Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandySatellite-1.jpg)
NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/nj.php?x=1)
-
Matt, what's the tanning index for today?
-
Matt, what's the tanning index for today?
Great index today. Better beach day, as long as you can find some beach to tan on :P!
Morning update coming up...I'll wait until 11AM Advisory. Nothing really new. In the grips of Sandy and she's starting to squeeze tighter. Weather News Headlines is the major and record breaking flooding and the lack of evacuations along the coast. People want out now!
-
It is becoming a reality, quickly, the extent and strength of this storm. Some notable changes this morning. Sandy now has 90mph sustained winds moving NNW/330 degrees at 18mph. She is making the turn for our coast. Central pressure is down to 943mb, under what the models were predicting. The storm has intensified quite a bit over just a few hours and may strengthen a bit more when interacting with the very strong front west of the area. Storm surge guidance is up some. There is a 10% chance the Raritan Bay, New York Harbor and Raritan River could see a 15+ foot storm surge NHC Storm Surge Guidance (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/150352.shtml?gm_esurge#contents) . Places have already seen 2-3 inches of rain, so the inland and flash flooding threat is still there as well. Winds will continue to increase. Most areas in NJ are seeing 20-40mph sustained winds with gusts over 60mph. In just the few minutes that I am writing this, the sustained winds have increased in Toms River. Coastal flooding is the biggest news, with most areas see major or record breaking flooding already. Many people who did not evacuate are in grave danger right now! The track is going to be central or southern NJ for landfall and possibly up the Delaware. This is bad news for western NJ and eastern PA!
Continue to expect high winds, even hurricane force along the coastal areas with high gusts. Coastal flooding will continue with 15-18 foot waves along the coast. Rain will be heavy at times and then lessen between bands, but we could still see another 4-10 inches.
NHC Sandy Advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/291439.shtml)
Nothing else to do except sit back and watch history in the making. There are lots of places to watch the progress from webcams to buoys and weather stations. Have an emergency ditch plan, just in case water rises or hazardous conditions occur at the location you are sheltering in.
I am impressed by the preparedness and precautions taken by this group! It speaks for itself and I am not surprised at all. If only others modeled their actions after this group...
Be safe...STAY ALERT, STAY ALIVE!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PHIWarnings.jpg)
NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/nj.php?x=1)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyTrack102915Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyVisibleSatellite1029.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Sandy_rainfall.gif)
Sandy Hook Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&stn=njsand&type=both)
Atlantic City Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=me&type=both&stn=njatl)
Cape May Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=me&type=both&stn=njmay)
Philadelphia Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=me&type=both&stn=paphil)
-
NWS PHI Briefing Package #10 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
-
Sandy is still at 90mph, moving NNW/305 degrees at 28mph now. Pressure is down to 940mb.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1
WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...
44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY EARLY EVENING.
REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING WELL INLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL
OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A WEATHERFLOW INSTRUMENT
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A
GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.
ALSO...A UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT BUOY LOCATED IN WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AT A HEIGHT OF 10 FEET
ABOVE THE WATER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 300 AND 400 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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My barometer here in the house took a dramatic drop it is now at close to 950Mbs.
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Got a helpful hint from a family member down in Florida that has been thru many hurricanes.
They said take Gallon storage bags (the zip type) Fill them 1/2 to 2/3rds of the way with water and pack your freezer with them. (i would imagine you would want to remove as much air as you can.
Due to the water being in bags, it will form itself around the items in your freezer, and you will be able to fit quite a few. Not only have you given yourself a ready supply of clean drinking water if needed....but if you do loose power the frozen bags of water will help keep your food cold till power is restored.
Im doing a test run now to make sure the bags dont break......1 with no air, 1 with a little air.....ill post up in a couple hours to let you know how it worked out.......
I would think only fill them half way or 3/4 and give room for expansion.. or the bags will bust. great idea..
Since we are fisherman, and coolers are out best friend, I filled 3 of them with ice in case needed. Since its cool outside, this should last a week.
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it looks like overnight, tonight will be its worse.. Im thinking, with the surge of tide, how much can a lagoon, deep in Toms River actually rise. At normal high tide, its only 4-5 feet.
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Link TO Current Updateshttp://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=29695.0 (http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=29695.0)
This Topic will hold The Old..
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grtn Hope all yawl's are safe.
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No big changes on Sandy. Winds still at 90mph moving WNW/300 degrees at 28mph with a central pressure holding at 940mb. Winds along the coast around 80-90mph with gusts over 100mph. Inland, winds are a bit lower. Storm surge guidance is staying the same. Forecast will not change much as Sandy is nearing landfall. Now it will be to report what we actually experience. Flooding is still critical and catastrophic in places.
Be safe!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyTrack102921Z.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyVisibleSatellite10291.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookStormSurge2030Z.jpg)
NHC Sandy 5PM Advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/292058.shtml)
NJ Active Weather Advisories, Watches & Warning (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/nj.php?x=1)
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Thanks Joe, so far, so good. Keeping our fingers crossed. t^
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Looking at this, the worse went through southern jersey already.
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Water rising fast in forked river.. 4 feet over normal High tide..
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Gauges in Sandy Hook at 12.1feet and rising fast!
Bridges to PA closed!!
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/300002.shtml]NYC Sandy 8pm Update
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http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017
shows tide surge..
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Worst is coming through the shore with massive flooding and very high winds...hunker down!
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nosmly nosmly man this thing is nasty.. I've been watching the Ambrose buoy data all day.. still nearly 30ft seas cfzd
hope everyone is staying safe..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065
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When will the water surge stop ???
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Should be lessening with low tide, but the wind is still pushing the surge in and it will until all of storm is west of the .
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When is that?
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Did you leave the Phyllis Ann in or take her out? Renegade is in at Bob's Bay Marina. ???
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Winds will continue to be locally gusty up to 60 mph through the morning...by tomorrow morning 8am water should be at least 1/4 receded...tomorrows tides ate only listed to be a got our two higher.
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Did you leave the Phyllis Ann in or take her out? Renegade is in at Bob's Bay Marina. ???
. Left her on the floating dock. Better chances.
Boat on land will float away before we lose the dock.
But at this point. I don't think it looks good for any boat
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Just got out my insurance policy nosmly
Did you leave the Phyllis Ann in or take her out? Renegade is in at Bob's Bay Marina. ???
. Left her on the floating dock. Better chances.
Boat on land will float away before we lose the dock.
But at this point. I don't think it looks good for any boat