NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums
NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on November 03, 2012, 04:17:41 PM
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It looks like the entire Mid Atlantic Region and Northeast will be affected in some form by another coastal storm. This Nor'Easter is no Sandy, but certainly not something we need a week or so later! This storm looks like it will ride up the coast bringing 50mph winds, 2-3 inches of rain or more snow in some places and some coastal flooding. Temperatures will be down into the 30's and 20's in some places, add in the wind chill and temperatures will feel like teens and/or single digits...BRRRR! This will definitely hamper recovery a bit, add unneeded stress on already damaged trees and powerlines, possibly flood some areas finally drying out and leave those without power even colder.
Be safe and prepared, yet again!
Euro 12Z Model 120 hours
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif)
GFS 12Z Model 120 hours
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/gfs_namer_120_10m_wnd_precip.gif)
HPC 5 Day Precipitation
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/HPC5day.gif)
GFS 12Z Snowfall Total
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/12zgfssnow120.gif)
GFS/Euro Winds Split
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GFSEUROWinds.png)
NWS PHI Briefing #1 Nor'Easter (https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D6278696_9387175_942778)
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fcp
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Well, I just tucked away the gen. So I guess I'll start the snowblower.
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Oh no ! rgmn
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This week's Nor'Easter is pretty much going to affect us one way or another. This will be a coastal storm that appears to be riding up the coast. Exact track and timing vary, but it looks like it will stay offshore around Wednesday or Thursday. It is going to bring 40-50mph winds, 2-3 inches of rain for the coast, with the possibility of snow farther inland, minor coastal flooding and the typical increased wave heights, high surf and beach erosion(whatever it didn't take the last round)! The track will depend highly on who gets snow and how much. It will also depend on how bad the area is hit, again. Right now the models basically agree with a storm in the 980mb rainge remaining along the coast and going into New England! A couple of trends I have noticed, is the offshore track and the increasing in strength. Don't ignore this storm because it is not going to be as bad as Sandy. It has the potential for a good amount of damage on top of what everyone has already endured! ****I just want to make this clear, though...right now, there is not even a storm developed. IF, a storm develops, it will develop in the Gulf as a weak low, move across Florida and intensify out in the Atlantic from there in the next 48-72 hours.
I will keep you updated. Keep an eye on this. The
entire area is vulnerable and we don't need a weaker storm to cause more loss of life or unnecessary damage!
GFS Model Sunday 12Z
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/12zgfspmsl10mwinds090.gif)
Euro Model Sunday 12Z
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS096.gif)
GFS Snowfall Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/12zgfssnow114.gif)
Euro Snowfall Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Euro12Z1104SnowfallTotal.png)
NWS Briefing #3 Nor'Easter (https://www.sugarsync.com/pf/D6278696_9397809_365719)
Sandy Hook Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&stn=njsand&type=both)
Atlantic City Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=me&type=both&stn=njatl)
Cape May Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=me&type=both&stn=njmay)
Philadelphia Storm Surge (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=me&type=both&stn=paphil)
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Matt, have I ever told you that I hate you! rgmn
Oh wait. Yes. Yes, I have. Quite a few times I believe. :headscra:
Nevermind. Carry on. slt
;D
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whs ;D
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Thanks for these reports, Matt t^ t^
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cfzd rgmn cfzd rgmn cfzd rgmn cfzd rgmn cfzd rgmn cfzd rgmn cfzd rgmn cfzd rgmn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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since we were seeing all this cold, I pulled out the snowblower. Doing an oil change on it tomorrow just in case we see some snow
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Matt, have I ever told you that I hate you! rgmn
Oh wait. Yes. Yes, I have. Quite a few times I believe. :headscra:
Nevermind. Carry on. slt
;D
ovrbt hhppy
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This upcoming storm could cause significant problems for our area. The genesis of this storm is beginning to verify with some early formation in the Gulf, west of Florida. While the track is still not definite, the models are bringing a 971mb storm farther offshore. Some models almost miss NJ completely and take it into New England, while other models bring 9 inches of snow and others just rain. Right now, the NWS PHI/Mount Holly is calling for a track along the coast, bringing rain, 8-10 foot waves, 2-4 foot storm surge and 50-65mph winds. This can and will do significant damage with the track they are calling, however, there is a decent chance it could stay farther east and spare us what we don't need! Trend today from the models is of a more easterly track! Of course, towns are taking this seriously already with Mandatory Evacuations tonight.
The NWS Briefing is very detailed tonight and has explained graphics.
Be safe, stay alert, stay alive!
NWS Briefing (https://docs.google.com/a/noaa.gov/file/d/0ByG5Wee3Izg-aktNTE5CV3ItSVk/edit?pli=1)
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With the already deteriorated beaches and the already high water does this storm have the potential for significant damage although its not a HUGE storm?
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There definitely is the potential for more damage even though this is not a big storm. With dune protection gone and beaches eroded, places that were not damaged are exposed and vulnerable and could easily be damaged this time. "Storm Surge" is only going to be half of what it was during Sandy and waves along the ocean are only 8-10 feet, not the 15-18+ with Sandy. So, while this is still a dangerous storm, with potential for flooding, wind damage and even snow, it is going to stay likely, to our east and leave us on the weaker side of the storm. So, will you see more damage from this storm now, than if it had hit before Sandy, yes, but I would not expect widespread significant damage like we all experienced last week! Cleanup efforts and equipment is also at risk and many places are evacuating already hit areas, so this is delaying the cleanup. Trees could be an issue too. If they were weakened and have not been taken down yet, the potential for damage from them and power outages is high as well.
Unfortunately, the models cannot come to a consensus and agree on track or intensity. This is because there really is not anything formed yet...low pressure has started to form, but nothing definitive yet. Last night the models were beginning to trend towards a more easterly track. Today, they have come back west. Another positive thing I am seeing is that if this storm forms, it will form more to the north than previously modeled. This will give it less time to organize and could be weaker? I will have an afternoon update as soon as I look over all the NWS Information and models.
So, be ready, but look at the facts and not the media hype.
TT^
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Thanks, Matt t^
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We are less than 24 hours away from this potential strong Nor'Easter. The NWS PHI/Mount Holly has issued their daily briefing. Their forecast is that this storm will follow the coast, remaining offshore, bringing 50-65 mph winds, 8-10 foot waves, 2-4 feet of coastal flooding and a mixture of rain/snow for the area. Currently, low pressure has just exited off the coast of Florida/Georgia with the bulk of the system still over Georgia and South Carolina. The models have flip flopped back and forth between a more westerly track and a more easterly track with. At this point it could go either way. The system is also emerging out into the ocean, more north than originally projected which could give it less time to organize, however these extratropical storms thrive in these current conditions and can intensify VERY rapidly. Models are all showing a 986mb pressure, quite different from the 970's yesterday. This is definitely a storm to take seriously and "err on the side of caution," considering the vulnerability of the area. Models can and do change, every 6 hours. Going with the Official Forecast of the NWS PHI/Mount Holly is the best guidance for now.
NWS PHI Briefing #5 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NWSPHI.jpg)
NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/nj.php?x=1)
Midshore to Offshore Storm Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ANZ451&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=30NM+ENE+Atlantic+City+NJ&product1=Storm+Watch)
Gale Warning Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigmz.php?mz=ANZ084&product1=Gale+Warning)
Here are current Surface Analysis and Satellite Image of the location of the system. I have circled them in yellow.
Surface Analysis Map
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SurfaceAnalysis1106.gif)
Visible Satellite
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NorEasterVisibleSatellite1106.jpg)
Nor'Easter Visible Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html)
Here are some models showing storm track, strength and snowfall totals. These are only models and not the official forecasts!
GFS Model Track and Snowfall
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GFS110612Z-1.gif)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GFS110612ZSnow.png)
Euro Model Track and Snowfall
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Euro110612Z-1.jpg)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Euro110612ZSnowfall.jpg)
NAM Model Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NAM110612Z-1.gif)
Precipitation Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/RainfallTotals.gif)
Storm Surge/Tidal Flooding
Sandy Hook Tidal Guidance (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&stn=njsand&type=both)
Atlantic City Tidal Guidance (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&type=both&stn=njatl)
Cape May Tidal Guidance (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&type=both&stn=njmay)
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These are old posts/archives!
Go here for the latest updates on the upcoming Nor'Easter
http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=29839.0
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fcp
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just got done with the snowblower. so, atlest im ready if we see snow
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Matt its great that you twll it like it is thanks
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Hey Matt,
Since you study the weather, I was wondering if you know anything about the HAARP Program?
On Monday night I saw some very long periods of alamost 2 seconds long of green/blue lights in the sky that seemed to be more than lights from transformers blowing.
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/
There are some who feel that this storm was energized by these stuff. 5hrug
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Oh boy ovrbt pcrn
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Thanks Matt. t^
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rgmn
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Hey Matt,
Since you study the weather, I was wondering if you know anything about the HAARP Program?
On Monday night I saw some very long periods of alamost 2 seconds long of green/blue lights in the sky that seemed to be more than lights from transformers blowing.
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/
There are some who feel that this storm was energized by these stuff. 5hrug
I have heard of HAARP and looked through the website before. I have not studied any of this, nor have many others. This is simply my opinion in reference to weather. The ionosphere is much higher than where weather forms and takes place. Weather occurs mostly in the troposphere and low levels of the stratosphere. While clouds and winds do still occur in the mesosphere, there is not much information on winds and conditions this high, nor higher. Could all of this cause storms, I guess it could. However, we do know that meteorologically, Sandy formed from moisture and convection, into a tropical cyclone. From there it began interacting with waters and other conditions that began to change it from a storm running on "thunderstorms" to a system that thrived off of colder waters, low pressure and vertical shear!
There is not much if any, that I could find, studies on upper atmosphere and weather. Scientists are just beginning to break through and look at this. Recently, rockets were launched to study upper atmosphere winds. It is a long way away from any type of conclusions. So it could be discovered that it is involved...however, my personal opinion is that the government or research agencies are purposely causing that. I am not into the conspiracy theories. Just like the ones that say the Hurricane Hunters are dropping chemicals into the storms to make them stronger and the cloud luminescence is really from chemtrails! I could be wrong and end up wearing egg on my face years from now, but without any hard evidence, I don't buy into these theories. As for the lights, I am not sure what you saw, but there is no weather explanation of this. If there had been thunderstorms and hail, blue/green in the sky is light reflecting off of this inside a supercell, but there were not any thunderstorms with Sandy. I would assume then, they were transformers or arcing wires, but I don't know electricity all that well so...could it be something else, certainly.
TT^
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Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012
DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-070515-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
410 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL NORTH AND WEST OF
PHILADELPHIA BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST.
* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...
SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIEST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT THAT TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WHILE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER
30S ON WEDNESDAY SO ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE MOSTLY
LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD
FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION ON
ROAD SURFACES. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ICE FREE.
* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
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Thanks for taking the time to address my question RE:Haarp and conspiracy theories.
Didn't mean to throw off this thread with it. But when you start to reasarch this stuff it is pretty scary stuff.
Keep up the great work keeping us posted on the weather. slt slt t^
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Thanks for taking the time to address my question RE:Haarp and conspiracy theories.
Didn't mean to throw off this thread with it. But when you start to reasarch this stuff it is pretty scary stuff.
Keep up the great work keeping us posted on the weather. slt slt t^
Great info as always!
I did see a tv special recently and haarp was discussed. I have to say the info they gave was pretty interesting. Not sure I buy it but interesting any way.
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Wednesday Afternoon Update
The Nor'Easter is going to take a track a little farther off the coast than modeled yesterday. As rain has already moved into the area, expect conditions to deteriorate as the day progresses. This storm, being called Winter Storm Athena by the Weather Channel and various other weather agencies(not the NWS) will bring 1-3 inches of rain, up to 4 inches of snow inland, 50-65mph wind gusts, waves to 14 feet along the beach, and tidal flooding of 2-4 feet. This is a classic Nor'Easter expected to get to a 990mb storm. While, normally, this would not be anything to really worry about, the area is extremely susceptible to damage. So, while this storm did not have the chance to strengthen as expected over the weekend, this is still a significant storm. However, it will not be anything like what we experienced with Sandy! Please see the latest NWS PHI Briefing for Snow Totals and Storm Surge Amounts. Temperatures behind this storm will actually be warmer on Friday and into the weekend, seeing possible 60's and sunny skies. Something to look forward to. There are multiple Warnings and Advisories, for Wind, Flooding and Winter Weather.
Be safe...stay alert, stay alive!
Current NWS PHI Briefing (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Current NWS PHI Advisories, Watches and Warnings (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/NorEasterVisibleSatellite.jpg)
Visible Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html)
Nor'Easter Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTrack.gif)
Current Radar
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CurrentRadar.jpg)
Current Winds
**Lighter/Brighter Reds & Greens are stronger winds
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CurrentWinds.jpg)
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Thanks for the update! I think you mean Wednesday though.
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Thanks for the update! I think you mean Wednesday though.
That I do... rgmn ;D! Thanks!
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The Storm Prediction Center has just released a Mesoscale Discussion for parts of northern and central western NJ in regards to the possibility of snow falling at a rate of 1 inch per hour now through 4 or 5 PM due to heavy bands of precipitation. This heavy snowfall is due to the track farther off the coast and drawing colder air from the northwest.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2106.gif)
SPC Mesoscale Discussion #2106 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2106.html)
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Snowing here now in North Jersey. rgmn
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Snowing in Ocean Co for the past half hour. nosmly
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Steady snow in Toms River not for the past hour or so. All we need now are locusts to go along with the earthquake...
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Snowing in Branchburg.
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Snowing in Hamilton and I have to drop someone off at the Philly airport for a 610 pm flight. :P
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snow in Jackson.. coming down hard, but not sticking yet. Last hour..
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discussing mesoscales in S. Plainfield
my buddy was busted for posession of one of them in the '70's.... fngr
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This is a going to be a major set back to the clean up effort. nosmly
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This snow is very wet and heavy. Already have some branches hanging really low!
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Thanks for the update t^
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The center of this storm has taken a little wobble or jog to the west as you can see on the map below. This is bringing some additional precipitation to the area and more snow in certain areas. Almost all areas will switch over to snow within the next hour or so. Winds could begin to gust up to 60mph as well this afternoon, so trees and branches could easily come down!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/lowtrack_circles.gif)
Current Radar
**Green is rain, blue snow, pink ice or mix
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Radar.jpg)