NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums
NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on March 04, 2013, 01:50:34 AM
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I am sure you have heard the talk of this storm and if not you can hear it first here, then. Beginning late Tuesday Night into Wednesday a strong low pressure system that will track into the Atlantic Ocean will affect our region. The primary low pressure system will track from the Tennessee Valley northeast, forming a secondary low that will cross over Virginia/North Carolina area and into the ocean. This low will intensify as it heads northeast and will likely intensify quickly once over water. This storm will bring 6-12 inches of snow across the lower Mid Atlantic across parts of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware before affecting NJ.
The southern NJ and NJ Coastal areas are the main target of this storm, currently according to the forecasts. These areas could see rain and/or wet snow, 40-50mph winds with 60mph gusts, moderate to major coastal flooding and beach erosion. This storm has the potential to be a very strong Nor'Easter, the strongest to hit the area since Sandy. This is not a Sandy, in any way, however, storm surge guidance does suggest that there could be a 9 foot storm surge (4-5 feet above MHHW) across southern areas. These numbers will diminish as you travel north up the coast. Sandy Hook could see 8-8.5 foot surge (3-3.5 feet above MHHW). Wave height at the center of the storm could easily reach 28 feet with 15-18 feet along the general coastline. Depending on the strength, track, temperature and moisture, this could become a moderate snow event as well for all of NJ. Interior areas of NJ will still see rain/snow and gustier winds. So, all of NJ needs to be prepared.
Coastal flooding could really become a huge concern given the condition of the beach front and bays. This storm is still several days out and forecasts will change some before Wednesday. However, the models have been trending this storm for over a week and the forecasts are not doubting high chances of this storm affecting NJ.
I will continue to update daily or more. NWS Philadelphia has already issued a Weather Briefing and Hazardous Weather Outlook for the entire state and coastal waters.
NWS Weather Briefing #1 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Storm Tracks
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTracks_zps9f571c91.gif)
Wave Heights Thursday 2 AM
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaveHeights03060200AM_zps3132b68c.png)
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The latest information out of the NWS Philadelphia and New York City was released at 3:30 PM today. There are updated Briefings as well as Hazardous Weather Outlooks and Watches posted. There are very few changes to the forecast from yesterday. There is still not 100% model agreements, but they have backed off of record storm surges and coastal flooding, but not by much. The Official Forecast is very conservative in my opinion and compared to other meteorologists, however, track is really dictating the affects from this storm. 100 miles in either direction could make quite a difference. Currently, the first low is in the Upper Plains moving west southwest while a second low is over Kentucky. These two lows will phase as the system moves east northeast into Virginia. The low will rapidly strengthen, while moving northeast and once out over the water will rapidly intensify. The first system is currently bringing snow and blizzard conditions to the Upper Plains. Once the system phases it is forecast to bring 6-12 inches to much of the Ohio Valley, parts of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Delaware will see 3-6 inches as well.
The NWS PHI has already issued Coastal Flood Watches for all coastal areas, as well as Hazardous Weather Outlooks and numerous Marine Watches and Advisories. Current NJ forecast calls for early affects to start later Tuesday Night with the storm peaking Wednesday afternoon through the night into Thursday. Rain will mix and change back and forth between snow and a mix of rain and snow for much of Southern NJ and Coastal Areas. Snow will begin later across Western Central and Northern Areas. Total accumulations will be in the 1-2 inch range with less along the coast. Rain and snow could be heavy at times along with winds causing extremely low visibility conditions. Coastal areas will see 30-45 mph winds with gusts to 60mph with the rest of the state seeing the 30-40 mph winds with gusts to 45 mph. Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge are the biggest threat from this system right now. Areas from Cape May through Sandy Hook areas will see a 7-8 foot surge, making it 2-3 feet above MHHW, along with waves 7-15 feet causing beach erosion. Small Stream flooding and areas with poor drainage could experience some flooding, as well as southern areas along the C&D Canal.
This forecast is EXTREMELY track dependent. A shift to the north could bring a much more powerful storm to the area with more snow and coastal threats, while a south or eastern track could leave us with not much too worry about. This is the official forecast from the NWS, however, I have seen forecasts from other Meteorologists showing 5-10 inches of snow across parts of NJ. I believe that those numbers are on the high side, while the NWS is being very conservative with their call.
I will update any major changes tonight, otherwise I will have an update tomorrow.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CurrentWatches_zpsdb893169.jpg)
Coastal Flood Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal%20flood%20watch)
Gale Warning (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=gale%20warning)
Storm Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=storm%20watch)
Small Craft Advisory (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=small%20craft%20advisory)
Gale Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=gale%20watch)
Hazardous Weather Outlook (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?wa=phi&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook)
NWS PHI Weather Briefing #2 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
NWS NYC Weather Briefing (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf)
Forecast Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTracksTues_zpse8fe3f84.gif)
Modeled Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ModelStormTracks_zpsea089493.gif)
Storm Surge
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormSurge_zps192e297e.jpg)
Sandy Hook Storm Surge
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookSurge_zps86c5bce4.jpg)
Atlantic City Storm Surge
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ACSurge_zpsfcf5aa07.jpg)
Cape May Storm Surge
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMaySurge_zpsd8ff542d.jpg)
Wave Heights
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaveHeights03070200_zps5e820807.png)
Snowfall Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SnowfallTotals-1_zpscdb14b97.png)
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There are not any major changes in the forecast from yesterday. Here is what today brings. NWS PHI has issued Winter Storm Watches for Cumberland and Coastal Cape May Counties and High Wind Watches for all coastal counties, in addition to the active Watches and Warnings yesterday. This system has slowed a little so overall timing brings it later into Thursday Morning and Afternoon. The track is mostly unchanged, the thing to mention is that the NWS track was right along the middle of all of the models, whereas today their track is on the southern side of most of the models(see Model Tracks graphic below). This storm is very track dependent, so a move in either direction can really change the entire end result. 0.5-2 inches of precipitation are forecast to fall over the state. NWS PHI has increased snowfall totals by only 2 inches. They are issuing this off of an Ensemble Model. This model takes all of the models Snowfall Totals and comes out with an average. Their accumulations are going off of a 50th Percentile, which would be an average of the averages. Worst case scenario still brings 12 inches of snow to Southern and eastern Central NJ and 18-24 inches to Central and Northern NJ. I don't believe we will see worst case at this point, but a slight track change could bring more snow.This will be a heavy, wet snow changing over and mixing with rain at times. This snow could definitely bring down trees and wires. The biggest threat will be winds 35-45mph with gusts along to coast to 60+mph with 15-20 foot seas and a storm surge of 8-9 feet(2-3 feet above MHHW) causing moderate coastal flooding at high tides and significant beach erosion. Current tides are already running 0.5-0.8 feet above normal. Localized flooding from rains in areas of poor drainage and small stream flooding is possible too with the amount of precipitation being forecast.
This storm is definitely being forecast to be the worst storm for the coast since Sandy. The Nor'Easter in November brought more snow, but there were very little winds with it. If you live in a flood prone area or live along the ocean/bay front you need to evacuate for this storm. Most evacuations are only voluntary at this time.
Everyone be safe, plan for the worst and let's hope for the best.
Updates as they become available. Storm affects will begin to move in tonight and stay for 24-36 hours.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CurrentWatchesTues_zps67e02473.jpg)
Advisories, Watches & Warnings (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=all)
NWS PHI Weather Briefing #3 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
NWS NYC Weather Briefing #2 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf)
Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTrackTues_zps6709c5d7.gif)
Model Storm Track
**Each color is a different model, with multiple points showing the different modeled tracks
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormModelTracksTues_zps08e6c422.gif)
Total Precipitation
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormQPF_zps37e6d2a4.gif)
Total Snowfall
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SnowfallTotalsTues_zps0d4bab8e.png)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SnowfallTotalsTuesOKX_zpsbc70d164.png)
Sandy Hook Storm Surge
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/SandyHookSurgeTues_zps5599a9a8.jpg)
Atlantic City Storm Surge
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/ACSurgeTues_zps1ca455dd.jpg)
Cape May Storm Surge
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/CapeMaySurgeTues_zps7c097c1b.jpg)
Wave Heights Thursday 8 AM
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaveHeights03070800_zps2de81de4.png)
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Here we go, again fcp
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Last I heard 10+ up here.
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Thanks Matt, t^
Good thing the shrinkwrap is still on the boat
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Last I heard 10+ up here.
Right now, NWS is calling for only 2-4, but I have seen some reliable models pushing out 18-24 inch snowfall totals. You won't have as much changeover to deal with, so more snow and your ratios of snow to water will be a little higher than south and east!
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Thanks Matt, t^
Good thing the shrinkwrap is still on the boat
Definitely good TT^!
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At 3:30 the NWS PHI has upgraded several Watches to Warnings. High Wind Warnings and Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect through Thursday Morning. They have also extended Winter Storm Watches to Gloucester, Camden, Burlington, Atlantic & Ocean Counties.
Some snow totals were increased in these areas to 3-5 inches of snow, while some areas could see 4-6 inches now. This is due to a more northern track I talked about in the afternoon update. Some areas in the 4-6 range have not been placed in a Winter Storm Watch because all counties north of Ocean & Camden Counties have a higher threshold (8 inches or more) before any Watches or Warnings are issued.
There are also localized areas along the coast that could see major coastal flooding.
NWS PHI Weather Briefing #4 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png)
(http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png)
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my snowboard is ready t^ since the fish aren't biting yet
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fcp D'oh......
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The State of NJ Office of Emergency Management will open the Emergency Operations Center at 7AM Wednesday Morning!
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Last I heard 10+ up here.
UGH thud
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Oh man, my new shed was just delivered today after Sandy crushed the last one by taking our a 150 year old oak tree that also hit the house. I'm tired of this already as many of you are as well.
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Oh man, my new shed was just delivered today after Sandy crushed the last one by taking our a 150 year old oak tree that also hit the house. I'm tired of this already as many of you are as well.
Yeah, this is getting old! NWS just bumped up snowfall totals to 4-6 inches for this area...wet, heavy snow coupled with 60mph gusts and we have widespread branches and trees coming down with power outages!
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NWS PHI and NWS NYC have all bumped up their snowfall totals with a more northeasterly track. Short range models have come up with a colder, wetter result. Right now, areas of the state will see 4-6 inches of snow. This coupled with 60mph winds along the coast and 45mph winds inland could really lead to widespread branches and trees coming down and power outages. We are now past the best case scenario and entering a worse case scenario, but not the worst! This additional snowfall is going to compound these issues which I was hoping to avoid. Winds and flooding are mostly unchanged.
Be safe!!
(http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png)
(http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png)
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Well hopefully with the leaves not on the trees yet and the broken off branches that might of lightened up the trees a tad where the root systems can handle the higher gusts and less weight. I guess we will see shortly.
So far we had gusts a little over 40mph, with no precept as of yet.
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Well hopefully with the leaves not on the trees yet and the broken off branches that might of lightened up the trees a tad where the root systems can handle the higher gusts and less weight. I guess we will see shortly.
So far we had gusts a little over 40mph, with no precept as of yet.
Yes, hopefully! If snowfall amounts are minimized, it shouldn't be a problem.
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Forecasted track has changed again taking this more out to sea and then northeast. This has brought down the snowfall totals and changed up many of the Watches and Warnings. Southern NJ will still take a decent hit, but forecasts for areas north of Atlantic City have been lessened some. This is good news and a better scenario than we were seeing last night. However, I would still be ready for the possibility of anything.
The general forecast is still the same. Winds 35-45mph with gusts to 60mph, Up to 2+ inches locally of precipitation, which will begin as rain or a mix and eventually change over to snow and then back to a mix or rain anywhere from 1-4 inches and moderate to major coastal flooding in areas with beach erosion.
Cape May and Atlantic City will see the possibility of coastal flooding almost equal to Sandy. We are looking at a forecasted difference of less than 6 inches. As you head north, storm surge numbers will decrease as will the flooding. Sandy Hook will not be close to Sandy flooding and will see just over 8 feet of surge, which is 5+ feet less than with Sandy. However, there will still be generalized minor coastal flooding throughout the state.
Be safe!
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WedWatches_zpsdafb7365.jpg)
Advisories, Watches & Warnings (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=all)
NWS PHI Weather Briefing #5 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTrackWed_zpsdd8b7b79.gif)
Snowfall Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTotalSnowWebFcstWed_zps381034fe.png)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTotalSnowFcstOKXWed_zps4808801b.png)
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Still a decent chance of snow this evening and into the overnight with the same snowfall totals as posted earlier. It looks like this system will stick around through Friday, bringing additional winds and coastal flooding. Watching another area of low pressure over the Great Lakes that may transfer energy to this storm out in the ocean and bring additional snow Thursday Night into Friday. While, not much has occurred with this storm, most areas south of Atlantic City have 2-3 feet of water from Ocean to Bay covering the streets and multiple reports of wind damage and power outages. To most, it probably appears this storm is a bust again, however it is progressing just as forecast and I would not count this storm out just yet.
Updates to follow...
pcrn
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Thanks Matt. t^
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Newest info out from NWS.
NWS PHI Weather Briefing #6 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
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Reporting LIVE from Woodbine (near Sea Isle City). The wind is blowin! At times I am actually afraid that the office trailer I am working out of my flip!
Now back to you in the studio, Vanessa.
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Reporting LIVE from Woodbine (near Sea Isle City). The wind is blowin! At times I am actually afraid that the office trailer I am working out of my flip!
Now back to you in the studio, Vanessa.
Flooding is moderately bad down there...??
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From the news it appears so.
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There will be some residual effects from the storm today and then again overnight. The Low has move pretty far off the coast. It went much more to the east, than to the northeast. Areas will still see snow showers/mix rain today, some gustier winds, and seas and surf will continue to be elevated and rough. Marine Advisories are still in effect as are Coastal Flood Warnings. Most areas north of Atlantic City fared much better than south of AC with regards to coastal flooding and wind damage. Very few areas have seen any accumulation of snow...the snow forecast was a big bust, even for areas forecast to receive 10-12 inches of snow around Baltimore and DC. These areas received NO snow!! The only big snow areas were northern Virginia, which received as much as 24 inches in some locations. Power outages were minimalized also due to the lack of snow. Like I said, this was a track dependent storm and the track went much farther east than modeled. High pressure up around Greenland really blocked this system from moving north at all. As well, warm air limited snow from falling. You certainly won't hear any complaints from me, as the area was spared a major hit again. Winds, surge and seas were just under the strength Sandy came ashore with, however, this storm was much, much smaller. This storm actually over performed off the coast of VA, generating hurricane force gusts of wind in Lewes, DE and generating 25+ foot waves at a buoy southeast of Cape May. This was an entire foot higher than what Sandy created!
While the system drifts northeast today, energy from a low over the Great Lakes will transfer energy through an inverted trough. Normally with a coastal storm, this would bring lots of rain and/or snow, however the system is too far off the coast for this to happen. NJ may still see 1-2 and 2-4 inches of snow tonight with higher accumulations to the north. Gustier winds are likely as well, but nothing close to the winds yesterday. Water conditions will continue through the weekend, as it looks right now. NWS PHI has issued another Briefing. I will have a Weekend Outlook later today. Looks like we will warm up some the beginning of the week, but the rest of the month may be seasonably colder than normal. Take that for what it is worth...
NWS PHI Weather Briefing #7 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
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t^....Thanks.... chrz
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Clearly some areas have received more than the forecast amounts of snow. Northwestern NJ has reports of 10 inches and more in areas. The low has stalled and is just sitting there right now and the wrap around precipitation from the backside of this storm is covering the state and snowing in most places. Some areas are seeing heavier banding of snow and accumulations are picking up quickly.
Weird system...
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About 8" here and I am doing nothing about it, let it melt.
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Have about 3" here in Middletown and still coming down. I am with Rick, I am waiting for it to melt.