A very unsettled week with precipitation and wintry weather and water conditions will be a bit of a roller coaster as well. Monday will start with rain changing over to a mix then snow across the state with vary amounts of accumulation from around 1 inch to 6+ inches. Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for areas and travel conditions will be hazardous tomorrow. This precipitation will start early in the morning with the heaviest snow between 9 AM and 3 PM or so, tapering off into the overnight. Tuesday looks to be clear before more precipitation moves in Tuesday Night, which will be a variety of wintry precipitation depending on temperature profiles and location. This will last through Wednesday before clearing out for most by Wednesday Night. This system has the ability to drop snow or worse freezing rain. Thursday will be clear again through Friday before more precipitation moves in Friday Night. This will likely be snow or a variety of rain to snow. This system will be the fore runner of the weekend system. Temperatures will vary from 30’s to 40’s down to 20’s and 30’s with lows in the single digits to 30’s. This is the reason for such high uncertainty between rain, mix or snow. Water conditions will vary by location and day, however overall, they will be good for most of the week. Monday will have some gusty winds and elevated seas prompting Small Craft Advisories across southern and offshore waters. Again on Wednesday winds will be gusty with building seas and Cautious Conditions and Small Craft Advisories for all waters. Surf and beach conditions will echo water conditions with gusty winds, rougher and elevated surf Monday and Wednesday. The rest of the week looks good. Water temperatures are steady or a few degrees warmer, however many rivers and bays are still mostly ice. Ice jam flooding is possible this week. UV Index will vary from Low to Moderate at 0-3/15.
A low pressure system will lift northeast off the Mid-Atlantic Coast just south of the region on Monday, bringing the first round of wintry precipitation this week. High pressure will follow on Monday Night and Tuesday before another low pressure system from the Tennessee River Valley brings a wintry mix to the region Tuesday Night and Wednesday. More high pressure is expected Thursday and Friday before one more low move into the region on Saturday.
The weekend will bring yet again, another system…possibly the strongest system this week. This could bring anything from rain to snow and will most likely clear out by Sunday. This is really up in the air right now and I will keep updated as needed!
Have a great week and be safe!
Monday
Sky: Cloudy
Precipitation: Rain/Mix/Snow
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 30’s
Low: Low to mid 20’s inland and along the coast, upper teens across the north
UV Index: 0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:03am
Sunset: 5:17pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Tuesday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance during the day, 90% chance of rain and/or winter precipitation
Temperatures
High: Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low: Low to mid 30’s inland, Mid to upper 30’s along the coast, low to mid 20’s across northern areas
UV Index: 2-3/15 (Low - Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:02am
Sunset: 5:18pm
First Qtr: 10:40pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Wednesday
Sky: Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 70%-80% chance of rain/mix/snow/freezing rain, 30% chance of winter precip at night across northern areas
Temperatures
High: Upper 30’s to low 40’s inland, low to mid 40’s along the coast, low 30’s across the north
Low: Low 20’s inland, mid 20’s the coast, mid teens across northern areas
UV Index: 0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:01am
Sunset: 5:19pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Thursday
Sky: Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 30’s inland and along the coast, upper 20’s across northern areas
Low: Mid to upper teens inland, low 20’s along the coast, upper single digits across northern areas
UV Index: 2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:00am
Sunset: 5:21pm
First Qtr: 2:23pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/FirstQuarter.jpg)
Friday
Sky: Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance during the day, 30% chance of snow at night
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 30’s inland and along the coast, upper 20’s across northern areas
Low: Low to mid 20’s inland, upper 20’s along the coast, mid teens across northern areas
UV Index: 1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:59am
Sunset: 5:22pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingGibbous.jpg)
Monday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0203_zps1a4397ed.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0203_zps1a4397ed.gif.html)
Tuesday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0204_zps5191d85d.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0204_zps5191d85d.gif.html)
Wednesday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0205_zps7908a34b.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0205_zps7908a34b.gif.html)
Thursday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0206_zpsdefc79fe.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0206_zpsdefc79fe.gif.html)
Friday Surface
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0207_zps5cf3c46d.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0207_zps5cf3c46d.gif.html)
Total Precipitation Monday - Friday
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/p120i_zpsc6d91f50.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/p120i_zpsc6d91f50.gif.html)
Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/p168i_zpse0b44ec0.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/p168i_zpse0b44ec0.gif.html)
Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 36°F
Monday
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind: N 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind: N 5-10 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind: E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet after midnight, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind: NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind: N 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind: NW 10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind: NW 10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Friday
Wind: NW 10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind: NW 10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less after midnight, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
Sandy Hook Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=02&bday=03&byear=2014&timelength=weekly&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&Threshold=greaterthanequal&thresholdvalue=&format=Submit&Stationid=8531680)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/SH_zpse4ca8f6f.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/SH_zpse4ca8f6f.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/SH1_zps599bc464.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/SH1_zps599bc464.gif.html)
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature: 36°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNE 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: N 3 to 4 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 17 to 23 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Coney Island, NY Tides
Coney Island Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=02&bday=03&byear=2014&timelength=weekly&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8517741)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CI_zpsd387a451.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CI_zpsd387a451.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CI1_zps1b8b62f9.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CI1_zps1b8b62f9.gif.html)
Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature: 39°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 5 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 17 to 23 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: W 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=02&bday=03&byear=2014&timelength=weekly&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8532591)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/MI_zpse5a3aabc.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/MI_zpse5a3aabc.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/MI1_zpsf77366fb.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/MI1_zpsf77366fb.gif.html)
Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature: 31°F
Monday
Wind: N 11-14 knots
Seas: 1 foot
Surf: 0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind: N 9-11 knots with gusts to 26 knots
Seas: 1 foot
Surf: 0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind: N 6-8 knots becoming ENE in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot
Surf: 0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind: ESE 9-11 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind: ESE 8-12 knots becoming NW in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot
Surf: 0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind: NNW 12 knots
Seas: 1 foot
Surf: 0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind: NW 11 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind: NW 6-9 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Friday
Wind: NW 10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind: NW 10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
Barnegat Bay Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=02&bday=03&byear=2014&timelength=weekly&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8533345)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/BB_zpseb3e7a42.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/BB_zpseb3e7a42.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/BB1_zps9eba287a.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/BB1_zps9eba287a.gif.html)
Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature: 39°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NE 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 17 to 23 knots
Seas: ENE 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: N 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 14 to 18 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Cape May (Ocean) Tides
Cape May Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=02&bday=03&byear=2014&timelength=weekly&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8535962)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CM_zps43248640.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CM_zps43248640.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CM1_zps35726b5c.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CM1_zps35726b5c.gif.html)
Delaware Bay
Water Temperature: 31°F-40°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind: N 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf: 1-2 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: N 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind: NE 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind: E 10 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind: SW 10-15 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind: NW 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Friday
Wind: N 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Friday Night
Wind: N 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides
Delaware River Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=02&bday=03&byear=2014&timelength=weekly&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&Threshold=greaterthanequal&thresholdvalue=&format=Submit&Stationid=8537121)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/DB_zps43e6a036.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/DB_zps43e6a036.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/DB1_zpscab799ae.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/DB1_zpscab799ae.gif.html)
Offshore Waters
Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature: 47°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NE 13 to 18 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 13 to 18 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 6 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Morning[/b
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 16 to 22 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 14 to 18 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sea Surface Temperatures
Surface
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo1_zpsd39748bf.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo1_zpsd39748bf.png.html)
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo11_zpsebafb437.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo11_zpsebafb437.png.html)
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/sst/Ncom_sst_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/currents/Ncom_Curr_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
Ocean Currents
Surface
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo12_zpsf7cac8ce.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo12_zpsf7cac8ce.png.html)
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo13_zps45d4c60f.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo13_zps45d4c60f.png.html)
Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!
(http://www.njsaltwaterfisherman.com/buoyweather.jpg) (http://www.buoyweather.com)
*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]
*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)