A mix of a weekend for weather, but water conditions look good through later Sunday. Saturday looks dry with sun for the majority of the day before clouds build in and continue for Sunday making a mix of sun and clouds and chances for showers and/or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 70’s and 80’s with lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Humidity will be moderate to high. Water conditions look good all weekend, except for later Sunday with winds picking up to near 15 knots in the late afternoon and then with gusts to 20 knots overnight into Monday. Sunday may also bring in thunderstorms which could affect water conditions negatively near or in storms. Surf and beach conditions look good, too, echoing water conditions with winds picking up later on Sunday. Surf will be normal at 1-3 feet and winds will be light onshore shifting to a southerly flow. Be aware of any thunderstorms on Sunday. Water temperatures are below average with rivers and bays in the 70’s, surf temperatures in the mid 50’s to low 60’s, inshore ocean waters in the mid to upper 60’s, some 70’s in extreme southern waters and low 70’s offshore. As the southerly flow lets up for the weekend, temperatures may moderate some, but the southerly flow will return through midweek later on Sunday and will bring upwelling waters and cooler water temperatures. UV Index will be Very High on Saturday and Moderate to Very High on Sunday.
A stationary frontal boundary will remain over the DELMARVA Thursday Night before slowly moving south of the area on Friday. High pressure then builds in from the northeast Friday into Saturday. A southerly flow returns and develops late in the weekend and early next week as High Pressure moves offshore and a strong upper level low dips into the Upper Midwest. A cold front will approach the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday before moving offshore by Wednesday.
Next week will start off with chances of showers and thunderstorms as a southerly flow returns and pumps moist hot air into the area. By Tuesday a strong cold front will approach the area, in addition to a dipping jet stream and a clash with the high temperatures and humidity, the likelihood of significant severe weather will be probable provided this scenario plays out. Dry conditions will return for Wednesday through the end of the week. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with high humidity. By late Tuesday into Wednesday cooler than average temperatures with drier air will move in place for the rest of the week. Highs will be 5-10 (max) degrees cooler and overnight lows will drop into the 50’s and 60’s through the end of the week. Water conditions will begin to deteriorate late Sunday and continue through Tuesday or Wednesday with Cautious to Hazardous conditions and Small Craft Advisories likely. Surf and beach conditions will be OK to Cautious with gusty winds, rougher and higher surf and rip currents. Water temperatures will remain below average with the continue upwelling from the southerly flow before shifting late Tuesday or Wednesday and allowing water temperatures to average off again. The surf is taking some of the biggest hits with temperatures in the mid 50’s to low 60’s recently.
The tropics are quiet again.
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!
Saturday
Sky: Sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s along the coast
Low: Mid to upper 60’s with low 60’s across the north
UV Index: 9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:26pm
Full Moon: 7:26am
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/FullMoon.jpg)
Sunday
Sky: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 20%-40% chance of scattered showers and/or thunderstorms
Temperatures
High: Upper 70’s to upper 80’s
Low: Upper 60’s to mid 70’s
UV Index: 4-9/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:26pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaningGibbous.jpg)
Friday Night Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0711_zps1d0b8c63.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0711_zps1d0b8c63.gif.html)
Saturday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0712_zps471a6823.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0712_zps471a6823.gif.html)
Sunday Surface Analysis
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/0713_zps03ecebfd.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/0713_zps03ecebfd.gif.html)
Friday – Monday Precipitation Total
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/d13_fill_zpsd01a5ca2.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/d13_fill_zpsd01a5ca2.gif.html)
Severe Weather Potential for Tuesday - Wednesday
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/day6prob_zpse3ba8977.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/day6prob_zpse3ba8977.gif.html)
Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 75°F
Saturday
Wind: E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Saturday Night
Wind: SE 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Sunday Night
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides
Sandy Hook Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=07&bday=12&byear=2014&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&Threshold=greaterthanequal&thresholdvalue=&format=Submit&Stationid=8531680)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/SH_zpsb9b41820.jpg) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/SH_zpsb9b41820.jpg.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/SH_zps5991742e.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/SH_zps5991742e.gif.html)
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature: 75°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Coney Island, NY Tides
Coney Island Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=07&bday=12&byear=2014&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8517741)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CI_zpsf7fafe63.jpg) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CI_zpsf7fafe63.jpg.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CI_zpsd922799b.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CI_zpsd922799b.gif.html)
Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature: 67°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=07&bday=12&byear=2014&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8532591)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/MI_zps61437a53.jpg) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/MI_zps61437a53.jpg.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/MI_zpsc0fdb00b.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/MI_zpsc0fdb00b.gif.html)
Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature: 78°F
Saturday
Wind: ENE 8 knots becoming ESE in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind: SSE 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind: SWS 6-9 knots increasing to 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind: SW 11 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
Barnegat Bay Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=07&bday=12&byear=2014&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8533345)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/BB_zps217b5115.jpg) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/BB_zps217b5115.jpg.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/BB_zpscc25a554.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/BB_zpscc25a554.gif.html)]
Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature: 73°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Cape May (Ocean) Tides
Cape May Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=07&bday=12&byear=2014&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8535962)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CM_zps958c2de8.jpg) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CM_zps958c2de8.jpg.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/CM_zps3ddd886c.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/CM_zps3ddd886c.gif.html)
Delaware Bay
Water Temperature: 70°F-77°F
Saturday
Wind: E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind: S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind: SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf: 0-1 feet
Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides
Delaware Bay Tides (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=07&bday=12&byear=2014&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&Threshold=greaterthanequal&thresholdvalue=&format=Submit&Stationid=8537121)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/DB_zpsb49ce3eb.jpg) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/DB_zpsb49ce3eb.jpg.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/DB_zps5abb011c.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/DB_zps5abb011c.gif.html)
Offshore Waters
Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature: 70°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Sea Surface Temperatures
Surface
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo1_zps56f79a13.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo1_zps56f79a13.png.html)
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo11_zps989376e5.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo11_zps989376e5.png.html)
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/sst/Ncom_sst_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/NCOM/currents/Ncom_Curr_UseastNorth_03_Day_flash.shtml)
Ocean Currents
Surface
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo12_zps0012c974.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo12_zps0012c974.png.html)
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo13_zps4fd3791e.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/hycomMeteo13_zps4fd3791e.png.html)
Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!
(http://www.njsaltwaterfisherman.com/buoyweather.jpg) (http://www.buoyweather.com)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/amb_logo_sml_zps23c0f90b.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/amb_logo_sml_zps23c0f90b.png.html)
*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!
*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Salem, Somerset, Sussex & Warren Counties.
Currently a line of severe warned storms in Pennsylvania and Maryland are moving northeast. This line of storms is forming a loosely organized bow shaped radar return with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds hail and even a brief tornado.
Stay alert and aware for any weather warnings issued.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0416_overview_wou.gif)
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #416 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0416.html)