NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums
NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on February 15, 2015, 05:47:55 PM
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We can't even get finished with one storm before another one is in the works and forecast. Between intermittent internet outages (60 mph gusts last night, 40-50 mph today), frozen pipes, and shoveling 6 foot drifts of snow, I have decided to put the Weekly Outlook and Conditions-At-A-Glance on hold and work on this next storm.
A low pressure system coming out of New Mexico and traversing across the south, picking up moisture as it go, will move into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic before exiting into the Atlantic. This Winter Storm will progress into a coastal storm/Nor'Easter out off the coast of NJ, NY/Long Island and New England. This Winter Storm will affect a large portion of the Central/Southern portion of the country into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. This will be a significant to major snow storm to affect NJ. Coastal areas will see the greatest snowfall at this point. Again, track and intensity will dictate much of this as always. A track change east or west will change snowfall totals accordingly (west more snow along the coast, more inland and to the west, east less snow all the way around). Arctic air and below zero wind chills will continue for Monday. Snow will start late Monday Night and then throughout a large part of Tuesday, affecting the morning commute more than the evening, but certainly creating dangerous road conditions for both commutes.
With cold air in place and remaining on the cold side of the storm, any precipitation should remain snow. Accumulations from 2-3 inches in Northwestern NJ to 6-8 inches along Coastal Counties is possible. Maximums could be in excess of 10 inches along the coast right now. Winds will continue to be gusty during this storm and coastal effects could include coastal flooding, high seas, hazardous water conditions with Gale and Storm Warnings, high surf and beach erosion. Track, again, will dictate much of these coastal effects. A more western track will bring a stronger coastal storm. Tidal guidance is running a little above normal, but only slightly more than this weekend's storm.
Winter Storm Watches have already been issued for Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, Atlantic, Camden, Cape May, Ocean, Monmouth, Gloucester, Salem and Burlington. Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings and Gale Warnings are active for much of the state and adjacent coastal waters.
Updates to follow. Model agreement and trending has been steady, although bad feedback from the weekend storm always seems to cloud the models. Models have not performed well at all this Winter and tracks have been VASTLY different and have not verified even just a few hours before the event. The modeled tracks right now show a fairly confident track, but that could easily change.
Be safe!
NWS PHI Briefing (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/lowtrack_circles_zps62e4c524.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/lowtrack_circles_zps62e4c524.gif.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/lowtrack_ensembles_zps9411e0a1.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/lowtrack_ensembles_zps9411e0a1.gif.html)
Snowfall Forecast Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/StormTotalSnowRange_zps5385af77.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/StormTotalSnowRange_zps5385af77.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/StormTotalSnowRange1_zpsaa5c107c.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/StormTotalSnowRange1_zpsaa5c107c.png.html)
Snowfall Maximums
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/SnowAmt90Prcntl_zps97b4e615.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/SnowAmt90Prcntl_zps97b4e615.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201164/SnowAmt90Prcntl1_zps83840137.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201164/SnowAmt90Prcntl1_zps83840137.png.html)
Snowfall Minimums
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/SnowAmt10Prcntl_zpsb081fba5.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201163/SnowAmt10Prcntl_zpsb081fba5.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201164/SnowAmt10Prcntl1_zps33fe8b95.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201164/SnowAmt10Prcntl1_zps33fe8b95.png.html)
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Yeah, it's getting old rgmn pcrn!
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Not much change in the forecast. Track looks to be a little more north and west of forecast. Southern NJ and Coastal Areas will get the greatest snowfall and extreme Southern NJ has been upgraded to 8-10 inches with Northern NJ being downgraded some. Timing is still tonight into the overnight and continuing into Monday Day. Snow will begin from the southwest as early as 8-9 PM with showers and then increasing from there moving northeast. Major Snowstorm for the Southern Half, possibly south of the Raritan and a moderate to significant storm for the remainder of the state. Cold air will continue behind this system tomorrow with another major blast coming on Wednesday/Thursday.
Be safe and stay warm!
NWS PHI Briefing (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201169/lowtrack_circles_zps43d1e603.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201169/lowtrack_circles_zps43d1e603.gif.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201169/lowtrack_ensembles_zps73f15e72.gif) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201169/lowtrack_ensembles_zps73f15e72.gif.html)
Snowfall Forecast Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201168/StormTotalSnowRange_zps74244f89.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201168/StormTotalSnowRange_zps74244f89.png.html)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201168/StormTotalSnowRange1_zpsfedbaecd.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/NJSWF%201168/StormTotalSnowRange1_zpsfedbaecd.png.html)
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Good work Matt. Time to get some bread and milk. ;D
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went to sleep last night early to get up early to shovel. The wife said, "were only getting an inch, I just watched the weather." Good for her I woke up to 4" on the ground and the sky falling. t^ thanks Matt for being more accurate then news 12.
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Good work Matt. Time to get some bread and milk. ;D
Yes, I am all stocked up on bread Kahlua & milk :P ;D
went to sleep last night early to get up early to shovel. The wife said, "were only getting an inch, I just watched the weather." Good for her I woke up to 4" on the ground and the sky falling. t^ thanks Matt for being more accurate then news 12.
Thanks Al! It's not my forecast, just the reading of the fine details from the NWS and translating and relaying it TT^.