NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums
NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Non-Fishing Discussions => Topic started by: njbob49 on August 21, 2015, 08:01:50 AM
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Had planned on going on NS party boat from AH for fluke today. They predicted monsoons for the whole day, but looking at the radar there is now no rain within hundreds of miles of NJ right now besides the storms that came through during the night. Would have gotten a little wet loading gear on the boat, but otherwise it now looks like it will be a gorgeous SUNNY day. BOOHOO :'( Why do we still believe that they know what they are talking about when they give us a forecast. rgmn nts
Thanks for letting me rant. Now I am going to work in a little while instead of yelling for the net.
Tight Lines,
Bob G chrz slt
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Wahh!!
That's too bad Bob. Hope you get out soon. t^
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Matt? Would you like to Esplain? ;D
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Bob follow this next time.
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nosmly
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Matt? Would you like to Esplain? ;D
Bob's just not reading the right weather forecasts! ::) 5hrug ;D.
From the Outlook posted on Monday
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible all week, mainly isolated to scattered with some more widely scattered to organized storms on Thursday.
I'm not trying to be a smart ass either. I'll save you the POP lesson, unless of course you would like to know how that is determined and what it equates to in real world language. Also, if you have a trip planned and forecasts do not match up with the Outlooks, send me a message or post on the Outlook and ask. NJ is small, but conditions can vary greatly throughout the state. Unfortunately, the weatherman or more likely a computer generated and populated forecast is not going to look at the conditions for you. These forecasts have no human input and are usually very wrong! Forecasts can also change, as 5-7 days forecasts are not all that accurate. So checking 48 hours, then 24 hours and even 12 hours can change specific timing of events.
TT^
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;D Yea Bob What he said ;D :P
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I think he was annoyed with the boat itself not going out.
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I think he was annoyed with the boat itself not going out.
Never left the house to go fishing. Was annoyed with the weather forecast. TT^
Thanks for NICELY explaining to me that I was looking at a computers forecast versus looking at your intelligent and detailed forecast Matt. Maybe we can get you your own weather show on TV so other people will not make wrong decisions based on what we get now on TV and the internet. TT^ clp
Can you also explain to me how the winds were forecast to be from the SE at 5 to 10 which would have been perfect for the incoming tide in the morning for the channels around Sandy Hook, actually blew HARD from the NW which put wind against tide and no drift. nts
Thanks for your input Matt. t^
Tight Lines,
Bob G chrz
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My fluke charter out of Highlands for today was cancelled because of predicted north winds. Capt felt it just would not be fun or productive.
According to windguru looks like it was a good call.
I don't get out as much as I'd like, so I appreciate his honesty and willingness to wait for a better day.
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Yea.. from the Beach. it was pretty sporty out there
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Never left the house to go fishing. Was annoyed with the weather forecast. TT^
Thanks for NICELY explaining to me that I was looking at a computers forecast versus looking at your intelligent and detailed forecast Matt. Maybe we can get you your own weather show on TV so other people will not make wrong decisions based on what we get now on TV and the internet. TT^ clp
Can you also explain to me how the winds were forecast to be from the SE at 5 to 10 which would have been perfect for the incoming tide in the morning for the channels around Sandy Hook, actually blew HARD from the NW which put wind against tide and no drift. nts
Thanks for your input Matt. t^
Tight Lines,
Bob G chrz
Hi Bob...I would be annoyed too and I have even been duped. Sometimes, forecasts and models are just dead wrong and the unknowns of the atmosphere beat the brains of meteorology. Unfortunately, computer generated forecasts far exceed meteorologist/human input forecasts. The areas covered can vary greatly, so even the Outlooks are more generalized than detailed. That's why I have no problem taking a look when it looks iffy to see what the NWS is saying, what the models look like and kind of translating it all. However, you do not ever want to see this ugly mug on TV or such. I'll stick with print media or maybe stretch into a video or audio, but I'd break the camera :P!
Without being able to go back and look at the exact data/forecast for Friday and comparing that with actual conditions, it will be hard for me to pinpoint exactly why the wind directions were so off. Here is my guess, though. The forecast you were looking at had the frontal boundaries, the cold front and low pressure system moving through later than it actually came through. This is what caused the forecast to call for rain, when really it was clear all day. As the front and low pressure system moved through faster, instead of coming out of the SE ahead of the front, they shifted to the northwest behind the front as it moved off to the northeast. Timing is everything and is actually very difficult to forecast and nail down because so many factors, some not even discovered or understood, can make a front speed up or slow down. That looks to be the case here...some forecasts/models (even meteorologists) thought rain would be carried over into Friday, while others got it right and felt it would be mostly on Thursday and Thursday Night and be done by early Friday at the latest.
TT^
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Bob, it's really simple, dat guy you lissend to thought you knew that he meant the winds would be blowing TO the SE, not FROM the SE.
NW, SE, watevver, just go fish. They will all be 16-17.5" anyway.
50% chance of rain means 50% chance of awesome. HIT IT