NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on January 18, 2016, 06:46:12 PM
Title: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 18, 2016, 06:46:12 PM
This is very early in the forecast process, but I know many weather and news outlets are already talking about this storm. A brief history...this system has been "brewing" in the mid range models (15-30+ days out) for some time. As the short range models came into range around the 7-10 day mark, the system was still present, however every 6 hours the solution for this storm has changed. All of the major models have hinted at a storm, while the European Model (arguably the most accurate) locked onto the Mid Atlantic Region last night with upwards of 48 inches of snow for some areas. In the last 12 hours, it has stuck with this solution, but it has changed specifics both times. The models will change this far out still, every 6 hours.
Since this is early in the forecast, what is known and can be expected is a system coming out of the Midwest/South and exiting into the Atlantic. This system will ride up the coast as a Nor'Easter, strengthening along the way. The track and intensity will be the main driving force of this storm. Any shift in the track by only 50-100 miles could really change the forecast for certain areas. A really strong storm or a really weak storm will also change things around. This storm looks to impact the region on Friday with Friday Night through Saturday Night the main event. In addition to snow, which could push the two foot mark within the state, with less accumulation along the coast, gusty winds to 60 knots are possible, moderate to major coastal flooding, high seas to 20+ feet offshore and 15 feet inshore, and beach erosion. Coastal flooding will be a particular concern, as tides will already be running high this week due to lunar influences. The highest lunar tides will coincide with the full moon on Saturday. Early guidance is suggesting tides running 3 feet or more, right now. Again, this is very early guidance and could go either way.
The National Weather Service Philadelphia in Mount Holly has released a Briefing already. Again, this is all very early in the game and information WILL change. However, you can expect a mess on Friday and Saturday. If you live in a flood zone, consider any changes you may need to make. Know how much time you need to finish these changes and go by the best forecast at the latest point you can.
If anyone has questions, feel free to PM, email, text, or call me!
Title: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday~~Tuesday Update
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 19, 2016, 08:51:49 PM
So, there are very few updates for Tuesday. Tomorrow will bring some early forecasts with snowfall amounts. The chance of a Nor'Easter/Winter Storm affecting the area is very likely and I would say with a 90% or greater chance. Timing is going to be Friday Evening through Saturday. What the effects will be from the storm is still in question? Track and intensity will dictate much of the storm (50-100 miles will change everything). Right now, all of the models agree on a major storm, but vary on track. They mostly agree on intensity, bringing anywhere from rain to almost 4 feet of snow in some areas south and west of NJ. NJ is showing anywhere from rain changing over to snow for south and eastern areas to all snow north and west of the I95 Corridor with 3-18+ inches of heavy, wet snow. While, snow is a big factor, I am more concerned with the coastal effects and potential complications of heavy and wet snow and gusty winds. Winds along the coast *COULD* see hurricane force at 70+ knots and inland gusts 30-40 knots. Heavy wet snow with gusty winds will bring down trees, powerlines, and poles quickly. My next concern is flooding. Storm surge will be coming on top of already high lunar tides with the full moon on Saturday. Tides are already running high at this point. Moderate to major flooding is possible with a 2-3 foot storm surge on top of these already high tides. 8-9 feet of water total could be pushed ashore. This would be 3-4 feet above Mean Higher High Water or high tides (comparison...Sandy was 13 feet of total water). Early guidance through Friday Night is suggesting these numbers. Later for Saturday is not available yet. Coupled with gale force winds, hurricane force gusts, and seas 15-30 feet flooding along the beaches and into the bays and rivers could be a disaster. While snow and loss of power will be a inconvenience and urgent situation due to the cold, major flooding will pose an entirely different risk. Now, is the time to make flood preparations for those prone to coastal flooding. Of course, moderate to major beach erosion is also likely with this storm.
As it stands right now, there is not a ton of concrete information, nor any forecasts that won't change over the next few days below are the latest briefings from both the NWS PHI and NYC that cover NJ. IF anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Update tomorrow, hopefully with some more solid information.
Thanks. I hope the coastal area makes out ok. I have a generator and snow blower so, I am sure we are all safe.
Bread and Milk? BOURBON
^^ fixed it for you ^^^
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 20, 2016, 09:50:00 PM
Here is the latest forecast from both the National Weather Service Philadelphia and New York City. These are very preliminary forecasts and I do not think they accurately represent the potential snowfall totals, so I will discuss this later. Also, these forecasts WILL change every 12 hours through the event. This can make planning and understanding the potential and actual event difficult. Also to note, Winter Storms are difficult, especially a coastal storm. Track and intensity will dictate everything and a change of just 50-100 miles can really effect a forecast, especially snowfall amounts.
With that being said, a powerful Winter Storm/Nor’Easter is forecast to affect the area starting on Friday Afternoon and continuing through Saturday Night. A large low pressure system has exited the Pacific Ocean onto the Northwest Coast. This system will travel through the CONUS dropping down into the south and fueling itself on Gulf of Mexico moisture. This low pressure system will exit the Southeast Coast, entering the Atlantic Ocean, where it will rapidly intensity while moving northeast. This storm will bring feet of snow to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Regions along with high winds, high seas, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. Models agree on an event, however track and intensity, as well as snowfall amounts do not have unanimous agreement, and probably will not. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for most of the the NJ Counties, Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for all ocean Coastal Counties, and Storm Watches have been posted for all Marine Waters.
Storm Track
(http://i.imgur.com/0TpSOZi.gif)
Models Storm Track
(http://i.imgur.com/Go5dnkW.gif)
Snow: This is the greatest area of varying forecasts. Statewide anywhere from rain to more than 18 inches of snow is still possible. Official forecasts are calling for 1-15 inches depending on location. Areas south and east of the I95 Corridor will likely see rain changing over to snow, while areas north and west will see all snow. Accumulations will depend on when the rain/snow switch over happens. These forecast totals WILL change every 12 hours. This official NWS Forecast is very conservative. Also, banding of heavy snow cannot be forecast and will not be represented in these forecasts. Blizzard like conditions are also possible. Blizzard requires winds over 35 MPH with blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less for 3 or more hours.
Other Effects: The biggest threat from this storm is not the snow. Coastal Flooding is a huge concern with moderate to major coastal flooding likely. Already elevated lunar tides will have a 2-4 foot storm surge on top of it, making tides 2-4 feet above Mean Higher High Water (High Tide), making it around 2-3 feet above High Astronomical Tide. Either way 4 feet over high tide is going to cause major flooding in many areas. Tide will be high on the oceans on Saturday Morning. Bays will experience flooding later on Saturday and will have to contend with waters being pushed into the back. Immediate beach front areas will also have to deal with waves to 15 feet crashing on top of these high tides. Winds will be 20-40 knots with gusts 50-70 knots. Ocean seas will be 15+ feet inshore and 20+ feet offshore. Beach erosion will also be a problem. Flooding is highly likely to occur, independent of snowfall. Track and intensity will only slightly effect any flooding at this point. Regardless of the track and intensity, at minimum some type of degree of flooding will occur.
Updates to follow tomorrow...any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me!
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 21, 2016, 02:07:49 AM
Here is some historical information I researched on storm surges. This gives you a comparison of previous storms, how bad flooding was and what is currently forecast. These numbers are in total feet of water, which would be Mean Lower Low Water at 0 feet. The images in the most recent update were set at this so, the forecast graphs are comparable to the numbers in this chart.
(http://i.imgur.com/UMsW0d4.png)
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: BigAl13 on January 21, 2016, 05:43:18 PM
thud
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 21, 2016, 06:16:46 PM
Al, the Flood Forecast looks a little better. At least, not pushing record levels. Almost done with the update for today.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday Thursday Night Update
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 21, 2016, 07:01:40 PM
Here is Thursday’s Update. The forecasts are looking more solid and the models have started to agree a little more. Of course, there has been some changes to the forecast and with the models. Unfortunately, the NWS’s job is to update those forecasts every 12 hours to represent the most current forecast possible. However, this can make everyone crazy with the constant changes and not being able to pin down what is going to happen. Like I said yesterday, I wasn’t convinced the forecast snowfall totals were depicting what was likely to happen. Today’s snowfall totals paint an entirely different picture, as the models have shifted south and east some. Track seems to be better defined as well (if you look at the models track graphic, most of the various points are much closer together). Flooding forecasts have changed too, today. There are several Watches and Warnings posted. Winter Storm Watches have been replaced in most counties by Blizzard Watches: Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, and Union. Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for Bergen, Cape May, Hunterdon, Eastern Monmouth, Morris, Coastal Ocean, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren Counties. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for Atlantic, Southeastern Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Eastern Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Eastern Union. High Wind Watches are posted for Atlantic, Cape May, and Ocean Counties. Marine Waters from Little Egg Inlet south, including the southeastern most part of Delaware Bay are in Storm Warnings. Storm Watches extend north from Little Egg Inlet all the way up the coast past Long Island and for the rest of Delaware Bay and the Delaware River. A Gale Watch has been issued for New York Harbor/Raritan Bay.
The low pressure system is already in Eastern Central Texas. It will continue through the Southeast, collecting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This system will exit the East Coast into the Atlantic Ocean around Georgia and South Carolina. It will quickly intensify as it moves northeast up the coast. How quickly or how much intensification is unknown, however the models are suggesting a 980-990 mb system, which is not overly strong. One thing to note is that the models repeatedly underestimate the strength of these systems. The track has this system turning more east-northeast south of the state, making it farther east than originally thought. Again, these models change every 6 hours and forecasts every 12 hours. Timing will still be anywhere from Friday Afternoon to start. These will be early effects of the storm. The heaviest and bulk of the storm will come later Friday Night through Saturday and begin to taper off late on Saturday.
Storm Track
(http://i.imgur.com/1DzKQhh.gif)
Models Storm Track
Snow: With the southeasterly shift in track, snowfall amounts for northern NJ have dropped some and a wide area of the state could see 12-18 inches. Areas along the coast have also increased, quite a bit, but will still see less snow. These coastal areas will still see rain changing over to snow. Areas north and west of the I95 Corridor will likely see all snow, however where that snow/rain line sets up and when the switchover happens will be key to accumulation totals. Banding of heavier snow are not really forecastable, either. While, theoretically, these should be in areas of higher forecast snowfall totals, it does not always or usually happen that way. Heavy banding could bring snowfalls at or more than 1 inch an hour. Regardless of the snowfall totals, a major Winter Storm is aiming to take place.
Coastal Effects: The flooding issue has been the biggest worry with this storm. Yesterday’s forecast painted near record level flooding. Today’s numbers look a little better and areas along the Northern NJ Coast (Northern Ocean County and Monmouth County…rough estimates) and Raritan Bay/New York Harbor will not get the full effects because the storm should turn more to the east by then. However, flooding will still be moderate to major along most of the coast and Delaware Bay/River. Tides are still running 2-4 feet above normal, with most areas seeing at or less than 8 feet of total water. Raritan Bay Areas will see moderate flooding with 2-3 feet of water above normal. While still a big concern, the impending threat of near record flooding have subsided some. The strong onshore flow will push water into the coast and into the inlets, bays, and rivers. Sustained winds will be 35 MPH or more with wind gusts 60+ MPH along the coast and 40+ MPH inland. If you live in a flood prone area, be ready for flooding. Even a foot of water will make a mess in most areas. Immediate coastal areas will also have to contend with crashing wave heights to 15 feet inshore and 20 feet offshore, as well a moderate to major beach erosion.
Be prepared for these many high impacts. As with any blizzard or snow/wind event, heavy wet snow will collect on trees and power lines. This will cause downed trees, wires and poles. Roads and surfaces may be impassable or hazardous and power outages are possible. Be safe!! One good note here is that high temperatures look to be above freezing in the upper 30’s to low 40’s for next week and even above freezing on Sunday. So, the snow won’t stick around, however melting snow could cause icy conditions after dark when temperature fall below freezing.
I will update the forecasts more often, if there are significant changes. I will also update the before the storm forecast on Friday Morning, also. Again, be safe! If anyone has any questions, concerns, or comments, please do not hesitate to contact me through PM, email, text, or by phone. I am debating whether or not to do the full Weekend Outlook tonight? The summary is going to be Winter Storm and HAZARDOUS Water Conditions, but…I do like to have complete information, especially for Sunday.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: njbob49 on January 21, 2016, 07:18:46 PM
Thanks for all your work keeping us safe Matt. clp t^ 57 days to Spring when we wake up tomorrow. Be safe everyone and don't forget to stay hydrated. chrz
Tight Lines, Bob G chrz slt
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Hotrod on January 21, 2016, 08:28:59 PM
whs
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: BigAl13 on January 22, 2016, 01:15:35 AM
Thanks as always Matt t^
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Still Running on January 22, 2016, 08:54:53 AM
whs
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday Friday Morning Update
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 22, 2016, 10:32:52 AM
Well, there was not much change in the last 12 hours or so. There is some more uncertainty in the track up off the coast of NJ, that was not there yesterday. The various models widely or vaguely agree on snowfall amounts and the NWS Forecasts, while conservative, give a good depiction of the storm. Totals could go either way, even though some of the modeling is going greater than the amounts forecast, especially for the middle part of the state. Timing looks to be as early as 1PM for some flurries possibly or light snow, increasing into 4PM and heavier precipitation moving in by evening around 5PM-6PM and the heaviest by 7PM-8PM or so. This is all speculation and guestimates from a high resolution rapid update model. What I am not seeing right now, this model is only showing snow, no rain, anywhere in the state. It keeps the rain well off the coast by 50 miles or so. This may not be true in real time, but no rain means more snow for coastal areas. This model is fairly accurate, but can be wrong at times and solutions change every hour. The rest of the forecast is pretty solid as well. Moderate to Major coastal flooding along the coast and into the Delaware Bay and River with minor to moderate flooding for Raritan Bay. Winds could be sustained to 35 MPH, there will be blowing snow, and gusts 50-70 MPH along the coast and to 45 MPH inland. High seas and surf at 15-20 feet with major beach erosion.
This large and potent storm is in the South, between Mississippi and Alabama. It will bring severe weather to much of Florida before exiting in the Atlantic Ocean. There it will intensify and track northeast along the coast before turning east-northeast out to sea. There are many active Advisories, Watches, and Warnings currently for the area and for much of the Eastern half of the CONUS. Most Watches have been upgraded to Warnings at this point.
Blizzard Warning:Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, and Union. Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for Bergen, Cape May, Hunterdon, Eastern Monmouth, Morris, Coastal Ocean, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren Counties
Winter Storm Warning:Atlantic, Bergen, Cape May, Cumberland, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, and Warren Counties
Winter Weather Advisory:Sussex County
Coastal Flood Warning:Atlantic, Cape May, Southeastern Burlington, Cumberland, Eastern Essex, Hudson, Monmouth, Ocean, and Eastern Union Counties
Coastal Flood Advisory:Salem County
High Wind Warning:Atlantic, and Cape May Counties
Marine Waters:Storm Warning for all Ocean Waters, Delaware Bay, Delaware River and coastal bays and rivers. Gale Warning for New York Harbor/Raritan Bay.
Back to flooding, anywhere from 2-4 feet above normal will be expected. Here are some numbers in total feet above Mean Lower Low Water (0 feet) for the 3 coastal stations. Sandy Hook will see a max of 7.78 feet at 7PM Saturday Night. This is only 0.94 feet above High Astronomical Tide (HAT). The earlier high tide on Saturday Morning will see 6.96 feet or 0.12 feet above HAT. The next high tide on Sunday will see 7.70 feet or 0.86 feet above HAT. This should coincide with minor to low end moderate flooding. Atlantic City will see a max of 7.50 feet of water and that will fall on the Sunday Morning high tide around 7AM, which is 1.31 feet above HAT. Saturday’s 7AM high tide will be 7.07 feet or 0.88 feet above HAT and the Saturday 7PM high tide will be 7.148 feet or 1.29 feet above HAT. This will bring moderate to low end major flooding. Cape May will see the greatest storm surge/tide and that will take place on the Saturday Morning tide at around 8AM or so with 8.52 feet or 1.53 feet above HAT. The next two high tides, Saturday Night at 8PM will have 8.06 feet or 1.07 feet above HAT and Sunday 8AM tide will have 8.36 feet or 1.37 above HAT. Again this will be moderate to low end major flooding. High winds pushing water into the coast, as well as waves on the ocean, bays, and rivers need to be taken into account. Delaware Bay/River could see waves 4-8 feet. So, while flooding will not be record breaking, it will still be a major concern. We all know how quickly the barrier islands and coastal areas flood on normal high tides or higher lunar tides without any help from a Nor’Easter. Any slight change in track could bring more or less water as well. A track closer to the coast will bring more coastal effects and more flooding. A track that brings the storm further up the coast and not east-northeast out to sea, will affect the northern coastal areas and Raritan Bay/New York Harbor more as well.
Again the biggest threats, heavy, wet snow, gusty winds, coastal flooding, impassable roads, power outages! Be safe! Any questions or concerns, feel free to contact me…PM, email, text, cell. I will be monitoring the storm from home and will have NJSWF up and active. Only exception to this would be if I lose power. Also, have a way of receiving weather alerts. While Winter Storm Weather Alerts are not as important as Severe Weather, there may be pertinent information that needs to be relayed.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 22, 2016, 12:23:47 PM
Unofficial update...afternoon runs of the weather models show an agreement and increase of snow accumulation across the state. Don't be surprised if you get more snow than has been forecast by the NWS. NWS PHI & NYC are due to update snow forecasts at 4PM or so...any significant changes, I will post them up, but the storm will have started by then!
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 22, 2016, 03:31:05 PM
Updated Forecast Snow Totals from NWS PHI showing more snow.
(http://i.imgur.com/bNLkoOv.png)
Also, updated flood forecasts are showing even less water than this morning for Sandy Hook Area. Atlantic City and Cape May stayed about the same. This is good news!!
Precipitation is beginning across very southern parts of the state. The storm has slowed some and the center of the low has not yet exited into the Atlantic. Again, it looks to be all snow and no rain mixing at this point? We will have to wait and see. I also expect snow to going from flurries to moderate to heavy accumulation quickly, upwards of 1 inch an hour.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 22, 2016, 06:55:39 PM
More updated Forecast Snowfall Totals...which have increased again. The storm is moving slower according to my understanding of the forecasts. I am noticing several forecasters stating the storm is here earlier. IMO, everyone is correct. Snow flurries and light snow will not be the case, instead quickly developing heavy snow will cover the area. Snow is moving in from the southwest, but banding is also beginning to form off the coast, as the easterly/northeasterly onshore flow begins (the low spinning counter clockwise). Also updated current conditions, current radar, storm track, and models storm track graphics are included. Several buoys off of the Southeast Coast report rapidly dropping pressure and wind gusts to 40 knots already. All Warnings are still in effect. Several coastal areas have voluntary and mandatory evacuations.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 22, 2016, 07:16:12 PM
Forgot to mention...snow will not be as wet or heavy as first anticipated. With the more easterly track, less coastal effects and less flooding, the wetter snow will stay off the coast. Coastal areas may see some wetter snow, but overall this will be lighter than anticipated. As this storm begins to intensify and bombogenesis (rapid drop in central pressure), there is a chance of thunderstorms/lightning or thunder-snow. Risks of lightning strikes are the same as with any thunderstorm, so keep that in mind as you are shoveling or the kids are out playing!
I will keep these updates going...this storm is going to be a marathon rgmn, not a sprint >:(!
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: BigAl13 on January 22, 2016, 07:39:01 PM
t^
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 22, 2016, 11:38:23 PM
Moderate to heavy snow with banding has covered the state. Both NWS Offices have modified Forecast Snowfalls a little, extending the 18-24 inches.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 23, 2016, 03:06:15 AM
Quick update. The center of the low is just about over the Atlantic, but emerged farther north, near the NC/VA Border. This doesn't change the current forecast right now. However, the slow movement of the storm (which some will argue opposite) has allowed temperatures to rise. Much of the state was in the mid 20's or lower at the start of the snow. Most areas are now approaching or at the freezing mark. This is bringing a wintry mix to Atlantic and Cape May Counties and rain southeast of there, off the coast. Temperatures are dependent on the low intensifying and pulling some colder air down and into the core of this system. Coastal areas could see a mix or even temporary changeover, if this low doesn't get going. Warmer ocean waters feeding the moisture in the store are helping raise the temperature and hold off or mix with the cold air. However, forecasts still look pretty good. I am at 5.5 inches with 0.69 inches of water equivalent which is roughly an 8:1 snow:water ratio. Standard is 10:1, so snow is slightly wetter overall, due to this slightly warmer air. Winds are beginning to pickup here, with gusts near 20-25 MPH or so, snow is blowing, and storm surge is making it's way north. We are only part of the way into this storm and have many hours to go.
(http://i.imgur.com/Tuk5fAa.png)
Blue=snow Green=rain Red/Pink=mix
(http://i.imgur.com/Di8S6SW.png)
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Floatsup on January 23, 2016, 05:09:47 AM
Blowin like snot here at 7 Presidents in Long Branch. No power outages yet (fingers crossed). Gonna check highlands around 9-10 this morning.
Cheers M8's
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: BigAl13 on January 23, 2016, 05:27:01 AM
Im hopefully leaving work in Kenilworth shortly, Im gonna say close to 6 inches here or so, falling fast. Shoveled the walks within 10 minutes they were covered with .5 inches already
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 23, 2016, 07:18:17 AM
The worst of the storm is moving through Delaware and into NJ. Here comes the winds and coastal flooding, as well as continued snow. 9 inches or so here in Manahawkin. Forecasts are on track... Most roads are impassable right now! Be safe.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday Saturday Update
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 23, 2016, 04:12:34 PM
Snow continues across the state and has all day. Some areas are seeing a lull, but that will be replaced by moderate snowfall again. The low has come much farther north and west of forecast and is stronger than forecast at 986 mb central pressure. This farther north and west track has brought more snow to Northern NJ and the NYC areas. I have lost track of how much snow I have here with the constant blowing and drifting snow. The worst of the storm is over for many, but gusty winds, high seas/rough surf, and coastal flooding will continue for the next several hours until the low begins to pull out to the east. Tides will be high through Sunday and coastal flooding is possible through then. Here are the updated snowfall forecasts. The bulk of NJ has been unchanged. Some areas did not see that full 24 inches of snow. NE NJ and NYC have upped some of their totals. Overall, this forecast was solid and by 24 hours painted a good picture of what we are getting today...a major Winter Storm/Nor'Easter. Hopefully, everyone is ok, has power, and just has to worry about digging out from snow.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: BigAl13 on January 23, 2016, 06:12:08 PM
Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 23, 2016, 06:16:08 PM
The storm is finally moving off to the Northeast, and more northeast than east-northeast. While the forecast was solid for the Mid-Atlantic, NYC north into New England was not expecting much in the way of snow, nor blizzard conditions. Areas up through Massachusetts could see upwards of 18 inches of snow and similar conditions that we have seen. Warnings are currently in effect for these areas.
Snow will continue to fall in places, as banding continues and the backside of the storm moves out to the northeast. Here is the latest briefing from NWS PHI, as well as some current snowfall totals for the area. I will have a complete list of snowfall totals for the entire East Coast Blizzard in a day or so.
Also, since I did not do a Weekend Outlook, tonight will continue with snow, scattered at times becoming showers, gusty winds that will diminish. Overnight lows will be in the mid teens to mid 20's with coldest temperatures to the north and "warmer" temperatures at the shore. Tomorrow for dig out, will have decreasing clouds becoming mostly sunny, windy still, with highs in the low to mid 30's. Overnight lows will be in the low teens to mid 20's. Water conditions will continue to be hazardous becoming cautious and improving some for Monday before the next blow on Tuesday...
NWS PHI Current Briefing Saturday 1/23 5PM (http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf)
Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts
YW, Al, as always! How did you make out with flooding...none, I hope? Sunday Morning looks to be the highest for Sandy Hook, which is still below the original forecasts and will only be a little higher than today's high tide.
Here is a link to the Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts. If you scroll down you will see numbers and data. You should be able to make sense of that, most importantly look at Forecast numbers, Observed numbers, and then the notes of above HAT. Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&datum=mllw&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=njsand)
Title: Re: Potential Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 23, 2016, 06:28:50 PM
Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts
YW, Al, as always! How did you make out with flooding...none, I hope? Sunday Morning looks to be the highest for Sandy Hook, which is still below the original forecasts and will only be a little higher than today's high tide.
Here is a link to the Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts. If you scroll down you will see numbers and data. You should be able to make sense of that, most importantly look at Forecast numbers, Observed numbers, and then the notes of above HAT. Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&datum=mllw&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=njsand)
Had water upo to the driveway today. 4 or 5 more inches it will be in the garage.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 23, 2016, 08:29:04 PM
Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts
YW, Al, as always! How did you make out with flooding...none, I hope? Sunday Morning looks to be the highest for Sandy Hook, which is still below the original forecasts and will only be a little higher than today's high tide.
Here is a link to the Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts. If you scroll down you will see numbers and data. You should be able to make sense of that, most importantly look at Forecast numbers, Observed numbers, and then the notes of above HAT. Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&datum=mllw&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=njsand)
Had water upo to the driveway today. 4 or 5 more inches it will be in the garage.
Going to be close next high tide...good luck!
Title: Re: Potential Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: fluke - u on January 23, 2016, 10:25:16 PM
t^..Thanks Matt, I am watching your forecast closely. I have to bring my kid back to school on Saturday....In Boston rgmn
Bob, how did you make out with your road trip? I would assume you postponed?
thd ..Got on the road late and the GWB was closed. I am going to try again in the morning, 6am start....Thanks for asking.
Yikes, good luck and safe travels!
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 23, 2016, 11:26:41 PM
It is still snowing across portions of the state, as some of the final outer bands of snow pull out to the northeast with the storm. The storm has dropped 5-30+ inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast. Higher elevations of West Virginia received 40 inches of snow. This was definitely not a hyped storm and every bit of the storm came true.
The back bays are experiencing major flooding this evening! The beaches and barrier islands in places like Cape May, Wildwood, Sea Isle City, LBI, Manasquan and likely most of the bay front communities are seeing 2-4 feet of flooding. This has prompted emergency evacuations in some areas. Again, the flooding has always been my biggest concern and will continue to be an area of contention over the next 24-36 hours. Some areas have surpassed the flooding in Sandy, especially Southern Jersey, who was mostly spared the worst of Sandy.
Here are some current graphics and some storm snowfall totals through 8:30 PM.
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday
Post by: Hotrod on January 24, 2016, 08:06:41 AM
Thanks for all your hard work Matt t^
Title: Re: Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Snowfall Totals
Post by: Pfishingruven on January 24, 2016, 07:55:28 PM
Here are snowfall total reports and wind reports for NWS PHI, NYC, and then a synopsis of all of the states affected by the storm.
There is still residual flooding, especially bay flooding. Also, temperatures drop well below freezing tonight and for most of the week, so any melted snow/liquid on surfaces will refreeze, causing ice and black ice.