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Well, the blast of cooler air comes ahead of and with a Tropical Storm that could strengthen into a Hurricane. Forecast brings early effects of rains to the area on Saturday, with full effects Sunday, Monday, and even into Tuesday. TS Hermine will move out over the Atlantic around the Carolinas and head northeast, before stalling and moving northwest. Strengthening could occur back to a hurricane over the warm ocean waters. There is some chances that it will become post-tropical, but let’s not worry about what it will be, but rather the effects. Heavy rains, severe weather, localized inland flooding, coastal and tidal flooding, gusty winds, beach erosion, and hazardous water conditions will all be present. Right now, upwards of 10 inches of rain is possible, winds to 75 mph, but most likely much less than that in the 30-50 mph range, thunderstorms and severe weather, including tornadoes are always possible, minor to major tidal flooding with a 3 foot surge and 9 feet of water from MLLW (9 feet total), and seas to 15-20 feet on the ocean. If the track comes west, more effects, if it goes east less effects. We will be on the weaker side of the storm, but I am concerned with some stalling off the coast possible and a turn inland before Long Island? Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all Coastal Counties and Marine Zones. I am not going to post detailed water forecasts, as even Saturday’s Forecasts call for 25+ knot winds and seas 5-10 feet and only increasing. Tomorrow will be the day to make your final decisions on moving boats. These numbers do not compare to Sandy, yet, but anything is always possible! I will be available (off from work) and in the office for the next 3 days. I will post any updates necessary. Make all necessary plans for wind damage (power outages), flooding, severe weather, etc…by tomorrow. Have your plans and kits ready. Have a way of receiving weather alerts and weather updates. Be prepared for changes in the forecast because, they always happen. Below is the NWS Philadelphia Briefing! Any questions, do not hesitate to contact me, either here, PM, email, or by cell phone!
"Big" Al…I know you are going to ask, and rightfully so! Sandy Hook Forecast is for 8.46 feet of water above Mean Low Low Water…Sandy was over 13 feet. Some of the Nor’Easters were worse this Winter, but I would really watch this storm with winds and any rain, you could see more water than that!
BE SAFE!!! Updates daily or any major changes...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes and into New England over the weekend and into the new week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Hermine will track along the Southeast Coast and emerge off the Carolina coast Saturday morning. Hermine will continue to be located near our coastline before slowly drifting offshore throughout most of next week. Another area of high pressure will build toward the region by the middle and later parts of next week.
Next week will be affected by Hermine through Tuesday before clearing out later Tuesday Night, possibly. If Hermine clears out, Wednesday through Friday will be dry with highs back into the upper 80’s and 90’s and lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will improve, but how quickly is yet to be determined.
Try to enjoy the Labor Day Weekend!!
NWS PHILADELPHIA BRIEFING on HERMINE (http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf)
Saturday
Sky: Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy
Precipitation: 20%-40% chance of rain all day, Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Likely
Temperatures
High: Mid to upper 70’s
Low: Low 60’s inland, upper 60’s at the shore, low 50’s northern areas
UV Index: 1-4/15 (Low – Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:26am
Sunset: 7:25pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Sunday
Sky: Cloudy
Precipitation: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Likely
Temperatures
High: Mid to upper 70’s
Low: Mid to upper 60’s with low 60’s northern areas
UV Index: 1-4/15 (Low – Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:27am
Sunset: 7:24pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Monday~Labor Day
Sky: Cloudy
Precipitation: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Likely
Temperatures
High: Upper 70’s inland, low 70’s at the shore
Low: Mid to upper 60’s with low 60’s northern areas
UV Index: 1-5/15 (Low – Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:28am
Sunset: 7:22pm
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WaxingCrescent.jpg)
Friday Night Surface Analysis
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Saturday Surface Analysis
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Sunday Surface Analysis
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Monday Surface Analysis
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Tuesday – Thursday Maps
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Precipitation Totals & Excessive Rainfall
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(http://i.imgur.com/zaiyvAa.gif)
Tropical Storm Hermine
(http://i.imgur.com/feRhtsD.png)
(http://i.imgur.com/QnCACfL.png)
(http://i.imgur.com/Pmtgdsv.gif)
Surge/Tidal Forecasts
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(http://i.imgur.com/S5Ot3jK.gif)
(http://i.imgur.com/jgTtO5O.gif)
Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!
(http://www.njsaltwaterfisherman.com/buoyweather.jpg) (http://www.buoyweather.com)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%201/amb_logo_sml_zps23c0f90b.png) (http://s524.photobucket.com/user/mrt031079/media/NJSWF%201/amb_logo_sml_zps23c0f90b.png.html)
*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!
*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)