Tropical Storm Alberto

[Pfishingruven]

There is currently an area of low pressure off of South Carolina, that is pretty much stationary at this time.  It is highly likely that this will become a tropical, subtropical or hybrid storm by tonight or tomorrow(personally, I believe it is already a tropical depression bordering on tropical storm at this time.  It has a defined area of closed circulation with winds over 38 mph).  The National Hurricane Center is still only giving it a 50% chance of forming.

Either way, the system will move up the coast and likely stay offshore.  Either way, we will see some rain and potentially gusty winds, SCA's, high surf and even some flash and/or coastal flooding.  Timing should be Tuesday to Wednesday at this time.

I will keep you updated!

NHC Invest 93

 

[Pfishingruven]

Here are some "spaghetti" models of the track of the storm as of the latest model runs

Spaghetti Models for Invest 93

[IKAT]

Guess we will have to wait and see

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Hotrod]

Thanks Matt.. we need to get you a NJSWF Weatherman badge

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Matt.. we need to get you a NJSWF Weatherman badge

 

[Pfishingruven]

Update:

The disturbance has officially formed into Tropical Storm Alberto!!  I will post the Advisories as they come out.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Here is some information from the NHC, including the latest Advisory, Forecast Discussion, Wind Speed Probabilities and Track of the Storm.

The storm is expected to strengthen to 60mph winds by Wednesday, about the same time it is expected off of the Coast of NJ.  The good thing is that this is a small storm in comparison to most tropical storms and only has those tropical force winds extending 45 miles from the center of the storm.  All of these are possibilities with a tropical storm:  rain, gusty winds, severe thunderstorms and lightning, coastal flooding, flash flooding, higher, rough surf, higher tides, potential beach erosion...in the worst case scenario.  As it looks now, I think this will be a rain/thunderstorm event with some coastal effects of flooding and higher/rough surf.  We have sustained stronger Nor'Easters over the last couple of years.  However, it is not something to ignore completely and I would make sure you are prepared, especially in the boat/marina area.

NHC Advisory #1 TS Alberto

NHC Forecast Advisory #1 TS Alberto

NHC Forecast Discussion #1 TS Alberto

NHC Wind Speed Probabilities #1 TS Alberto

NHC Storm Track TS Alberto

I will update this as the information is released.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Atlantic Ocean and Coastal Waters

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
 HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
 MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
 
 
 ANZ089-200300-
 600 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
 
 
 .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO NEAR
 32.2N 77.7W AT 5 PM WILL MOVE SW TO 31.7N 78.5W BY 2 PM SUN...TO
 32.7N 78.5W BY 2 PM MON...TO 34.5N 75.5W BY 2 PM TUE...BECOME AN
 EXTRATROPCIAL LOW AT 37.5N 72.0W BY 2 PM WED...THEN DISSIPATE
 THU. LOW PRES WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
 TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE
 WILL PERSIST N AND E OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MON. A THIRD LOW
 IS EXPECTED TO PASS N ACROSS THE WATERS MON...THEN MOVE OFF TO
 THE N TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUE AND TUE
 NIGHT...THEN MOVE SE INTO THE NRN WATERS WED WHILE WEAKENING.
 ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THU.
 $$



 SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
 HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
 MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
 
 
 ANZ088-200300-
 CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W
 600 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
 
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 

 TONIGHT
 SHIFTING WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR
 CENTER OF ALBERTO...EXCEPT E OF 75W 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18
 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 6 TO 10 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 75W.

 SUN
 SHIFTING WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR
 CENTER OF ALBERTO...EXCEPT E OF 75W 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING
 TO 12 TO 22 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 6 TO 12 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS W
 OF 75W.

 SUN NIGHT
 SHIFTING WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR
 CENTER OF ALBERTO...EXCEPT E OF 75W 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING
 TO 12 TO 22 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 6 TO 12 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS W
 OF 75W.

 MON AND MON NIGHT
 SHIFTING WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
 KT NEAR CENTER OF ALBERTO...EXCEPT E OF 75W 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
 BUILDING TO 14 TO 24 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 7 TO 14 FT. SHOWERS
 AND TSTMS W OF 75W.

 TUE
 BECOMING W TO SW AND DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS
 BECOMING 7 TO 14 FT THROUGHOUT.

 WED
 WINDS BECOMING S TO SW 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4
 TO 8 FT.

 THU
 WINDS DIMINISHING TO E TO SE 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3
 TO 5 FT.
 $$

[Bucktail]

Thanks Matt.. we need to get you a NJSWF Weatherman badge

Or a "Harbinger of Doom" badge.

[Pfishingruven]

1100 PM Updates

Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the South Carolina Coast

The storm has weakened slightly already from the 6:50 PM update, with pressure rising a bit(995mb to 998mb) and winds decreasing as well (60mph to 50mph).

The track has shifted east some this update taking the storm farther out to sea and farther away from the NJ Coast.

NHC Public Advisory #2 TS Alberto

NHC Forecast Advisory #2 TS Alberto

NHC Forecast Discussion #2 TS Alberto

NHC Wind Speed Probabilities #2 TS Alberto

NHC Track #2 TS Alberto

 

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Matt.. we need to get you a NJSWF Weatherman badge

Or a "Harbinger of Doom" badge.