NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition August 4-5, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

Another hot and humid weekend with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms all weekend and possibly even severe weather on Sunday.  There is a threat all weekend of minor coastal flooding along bays and rivers.  Water conditions for inshore are rated good except Sunday Afternoon, is cautious.  Midshore to offshore is rated good on Saturday, but cautious on Sunday.  There is a moderate chance of Small Craft Advisories being issued for Sunday.    

A weak cold front will dissipate over the area Friday Night into early Saturday allowing high pressure to build into the area on Saturday.  Sunday will bring low pressure moving in bringing with it a cold front.


Saturday
Sky:  Mostly sunny turning mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low 90’s (heat indices upper 90’s to low 100’s)
Low:  Mid 70’s
Sunrise: 5:58am
Sunset: 8:07pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Sunday-
Sky:  Partly sunny turning mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low 90’s (heat indices in upper 90’s low 100’s)
Low:  Mid 70’s
Sunrise: 5:59am
Sunset: 8:06pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-3/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Friday Night into Saturday Morning Surface Analysis



Saturday’s Surface Analysis



Sunday’s Surface Analysis



HPC Thursday - Saturday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



HPC Sunday - Tuesday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



SPC Risk of Severe Weather for Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  79F
Saturday Morning
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less becoming 1-2 feet around midnight

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  77.5F
Saturday Morning
Winds: S 4 to 5 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  78F
Saturday Morning
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 5 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  81F
Saturday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet  
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 7 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 20 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 5 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 6 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Ms Fish]

  This is by FAR you best report to date! 

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has extended the risk of severe weather for Sunday to include all of NJ.  The approaching front will bring several organized systems ahead of it.  These will be multicell/clusters of squall lines that will rapidly intensify and move into the area.  Supercells embedded in the squall line or those able to get ahead of the line are also possible.  Main threat will be from damaging winds and heavy rains, which due to the saturated grounds, could cause flash flooding.

[SurfJockey]

Nice detailed outlook! 

[Hotrod]

 

[Pfishingruven]

The entire region is still in a Slight Risk for severe weather today.  Storms will be moving in from the Ohio Valley later this afternoon and this evening.  There will most likely be widespread showers and thunderstorms, coming into NJ as squall lines/multicell clusters.  The main threat is damaging winds and possibly hail.



Wind Probability

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisories effective 2pm today, Sunday through Monday Morning for Sandy Hook to Fenwick Island, DE including Delaware Bay.  New York Harbor and Raritan Bay are NOT included in these advisories, but all of Long Island is.

Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ452>455-052030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BECOMING W
10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO
4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS AROUND
2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-052030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SW 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BUILDING TO 3 TO
5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON...W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3
TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS AROUND
2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ430-052030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 2 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BECOMING SW
10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LIKELY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT... BECOMING NW
5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ431-052030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
832 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...INCREASING
TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY...
MAINLY IN THE MORNING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING S. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ANZ450>455-052100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0076.120805T1800Z-120806T1500Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST TO NEAR 30
  KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS MAY STAY ABOVE 5
  FEET UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ANZ430-431-052100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0076.120805T1800Z-120806T1200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Dicussion for most of NJ(see map) for the severe weather threat today.  There is a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued this afternoon.  Storms will be moving into the region and intensifying in the unstable atmosphere. Threat of damaging winds and isolated hail.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1708

[Pfishingruven]

[fluke - u]

 ...Thanks for your work....

[Pfishingruven]

...Thanks for your work....

YW, Thanks!  I enjoy this...

 

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Warren, Mercer, Monmouth, Middlesex, Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May & Ocean, Camden, Cumberland & Gloucester Counties as well as adjacent coastal waters including Delaware Bay and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland & Virginia until 9PM.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #564