NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 13-17, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

This week is looking good on all fronts.  Overall, there will be less chances of rain and thunderstorms and temperatures will be slightly lower with some breaks in the humidity as well.  Monday will bring much drier air and much lower humidity, but that will only last the day.  Humid air will return starting Monday Night.  Tuesday into early Wednesday and Friday Night have the best chances of rain and/or thunderstorms.  Water conditions are rated good for Inshore and Midshore to Offshore all week.  There are no anticipated small craft advisories for the week.

Tropics have quieted down.  Tropical Depression #7 has broken up and is almost completely dissipated, with just a small 10% chance of tropical development.  Invest 93L is no longer an invest and also only has a 10% chance of development.  There is nothing else noted anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, although models are showing some more possible areas to watch coming off of Africa in the coming weeks.

Monday will have weak high pressure over the region and by Tuesday a frontal boundary will be approaching the area from the west.  This front will pass through the area by early Wednesday and another weak high pressure system will build into the area through early Friday.  Friday will bring another front moving in for the weekend.


Monday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy      
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s (lower humidity)
Low:  Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:06am
Sunset: 7:56pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance showers/thunderstorms morning/afternoon, 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms evening/night
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s
Low:  Low 70’s
Sunrise: 6:07am
Sunset: 7:55pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Partly Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance showers/thunderstorms morning, clearing with just a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms for the afternoon, evening & night
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 80’s
Low:  Mid to upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:08am
Sunset: 7:54pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-7/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Thursday
Sky:  Sunny & clear all day
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s
Low:  Low 70’s
Sunrise: 6:09am
Sunset: 7:52pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Friday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:10am
Sunset: 7:51pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis


Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday



Satellite of Atlantic Basin



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  81F
Monday Morning
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  77F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 3 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 1 to 2 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 5 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 2 to 2 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 5 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  81F
Monday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots gusts up to 20 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: NW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming S in the evening
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots  
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots becoming S 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 6 to 8 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[fluke - u]

 ....Thanks

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather for tomorrow, Tuesday August 15, 2012 for basically all of NJ.  There is a threat of widespread organized thunderstorms tomorrow with damaging winds and hail.

This is essentially the same risk we have seen issued all summer!

[Pfishingruven]

Almost all of NJ and surrounding states are under a Slight Risk of severe weather today.  Widespread, organized multicell thunderstorms/squall lines will affect the area throughout the day with the possibility of damaging winds and high gusts and hail.  Supercells are also capable of forming today.  There is a small chance of tornadoes, today also from any supercells that are able to form.

There is currently a line formed moving into NJ already.  These were severe warned cells, however they have weakened and are just strong  thunderstorms right now.

SPC Convective Outlook for Today



SPC Tornado Risk



SPC Wind Risk



SPC Hail Risk



Current Radar

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather today for all of NJ.  There is a 70% chance today and 60% chance tonight of rain and/or thunderstorms for most of NJ today.  These thunderstorms could become strong to severe at times.  The storms will be more scattered or even isolated throughout the day and into the evening and overnight.  Storms will likely move in from out of the area in the form of small squall lines/line segments and even smaller cells.  Damaging winds and hail are the main threat.  Flash flooding is also a high concern with any more rain falling across the area, especially in parts of southern NJ, which already has residual flood waters left over from yesterdays storms.

SPC Convective Outlook



SPC Wind Threat



SPC Hail Threat

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has now issued a 2% risk of tornadoes today for coastal NJ.  There is a low potential for supercell formation causing brief tornadoes.

There was a waterspout off of Pomona yesterday in the bay!!

[Scott G.]

   THANKS FOR THE REPORT/UPDATE 

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisories in effect from 5PM Friday Night(tonight) until 1AM Saturday from Sandy Hook to Fenwick Island, DE including Delaware Bay.

Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ452>455-180730-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SAT...W WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY... MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING WITH VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SUN...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.MON...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING S AROUND 5 KT IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
SW AROUND 5 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ431-180730-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SAT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 TO 2 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY... MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING WITH VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING SW. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.WED...N WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SE. SEAS 1 FOOT OR LESS.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$