NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 27-31, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

It’s already the last week of August and ending the last full month of summer.  It certainly went by quickly.  The week will start out with the greatest chance of rain and then quickly dry out for the remainder of the week with a sunny conditions.  High temperatures will be in the 80’s all week with overnight lows 60’s.  Water conditions are rated good both inshore and midshore to offshore all week, except Tuesday Morning and Friday Afternoon for all locations.  Monday Night into Tuesday could see winds gusting around 20 knots with seas approaching 4 feet, however, conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

High pressure will start off the week moving south out of Canada.  A cold front will move through the area Monday Night into Tuesday.  High pressure will then build into the area for the remainder of the week.

Monday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy      
Precipitation:  30% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day, 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:  Low 80’s
Low:  Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:19am
Sunset: 7:36pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-2/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:20am
Sunset: 7:35pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-4/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny & mostly clear
Precipitation:  Slight chance  
Temperatures
High:  Low 80’s
Low:  Low 60’s
Sunrise: 6:21am
Sunset: 7:33pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Thursday
Sky:  Sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 80’s
Low:  Low to mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:22am
Sunset: 7:32pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-7/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Friday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:23am
Sunset: 7:30pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  77F
Monday Morning
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots becoming SW at night
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  W 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  W 10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  N 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10 knots becoming W at night
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  77F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 12 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  76F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 9 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  77F
Monday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Monday Morning
Winds: SE 8 to 10 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 9 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 9 to 13 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 12 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: WSW 4 feet at 4 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Nothing has changed in the tropics.  Still Tropical Storm Isaac, Invest 97L and an additional area of interest.  Isaac is really the only story to be watching right now, as Invest 97L and the other area of interest are unchanged today.



Tropical Storm Isaac is a very large cyclone right now.  It is showing signs of strengthening, but very, very slowly.  Due to its size, it can take much longer to intensify than a smaller storm.  Isaac is developing an eye and pressures have been the lowest so far.  It has fought some dry air being entrained into the center of the storm, today.  The track is still taking it into New Orleans, LA as at least a Cat 1 Hurricane by as early as tomorrow night.  Regardless, of strength, this is still a dangerous storm due to its size and amount of rain expected.  Between storm surges and the almost 2 feet of rain that could fall, flooding will be a very dangerous threat!


Isaac Stats, Location and Watches, Warnings & Advisories

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 87.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

NHC Isaac Track



Forecasting Precipitation from Isaac



Isaac Storm Surge

[Pfishingruven]

High temperatures on Friday will be up into the 90's while overnight lows will still be in the upper 60's.  The ridge of high pressure will be bringing some warmer temperatures for a few days.

 

[Reel McCoy]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Isaac finally made it to Hurricane status.  Not that 5 mph really makes much of a difference.  Either way this is a dangerous storm.  Isaac is a very large, slow moving storm (over 200 miles at the core with outer bands reaching 100's of more miles).  Isaac has Category 3 winds at 115 mph at flight level recorded by Reconnaissance Aircraft.  These winds could easily make it to the surface once the storm interacts with land (caused by friction).  It also has a central pressure of 976 mb, which is also a pressure of a Category 3 storm.   This storm is going to bring 9-12 foot storm surge, 20+ inches of rain, flooding both coastal and freshwater inland, 75 mph winds with much higher gusts, tornado threats, and severe thunderstorms to the affected areas for an extended period of time, due to its slow forward speed.  This extended time frame will definitely cause more flooding and damage.

Current Stats, Location and Watches & Warnings

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 88.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

National Hurricane Center

[Pfishingruven]

Anyone with Buoy Weather Premium, check out Isaac in the Tropical Storms Link Section.  Lots of GREAT information in there.  This is a good time to get acquainted with the program as well, in case you ever need to use it for local issues.

Anyone that doesn't have Buoy Weather Premium and does a lot of activity on the water, it is almost a necessity and the best in the industry!!

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

[Pfishingruven]

Hurricane Isaac has already made one landfall in Louisiana a few hours ago.  Isaac is also still strengthening.  Central Pressure is down to 968 mb, but winds are still holding at 80 mph or so.  Flooding and storm surge are a BIG problem, with areas in and around NOLA already reporting flood waters just 2 feet below the 16 foot levees!!  This will continue for at least another 12 hours or so.

[Pfishingruven]

Well over 24 hours later and Isaac is still battering the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida Coast.  Dangerous storm surges, broken levees, record rain fall, hurricane force winds, tornadoes and more have plagued the area for over a day.  The damage and destruction is going to be immense.  Crazier, people didn't evacuate and needed to be rescued from their rooftops again, exactly 7 years to the date that others needed to be rescued due to Hurricane Katrina.

It will still be days before we know the complete devastation caused by Isaac, but it is a good lesson on why not to shrug off a Tropical Storm or Weak Hurricane!