NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Sept 15-16, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

Looks like the nice weather will continue for the weekend.  Any showers left over from Friday and Friday Night will clear out for Saturday Morning.  This will make way for a sunny weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70’s and lows down into the mid to upper 50’s overnight.  There is slight chance for rain later in Sunday mostly for western and northwestern NJ.  Fall is right around the corner and the fall weather conditions are starting to peak through on these late summer days.  Water conditions are all rated good for all locations throughout the weekend.  There are no forecast Small Craft Advisories anticipated, however Saturday Night into Sunday could see seas building to 5 feet on the ocean from a northerly flow.  It also looks like, despite being pretty far out to sea, Tropical Storm Nadine is going to affect the ocean with a long period swell topping 15+ seconds and causing some building seas to 8+ feet in some midshore locations.  Some of the effects will start this weekend and peak sometime early to the middle of next week being enhanced by an anticipated onshore flow(easterly winds).  We are approaching the start of higher swells and rough seas.  Just a reminder to periodically check the forecasts before and during any outings as conditions could change quickly!

A weak cold front will move through the area on Friday Night, moving out by Saturday allowing more high pressure to move in and dominate the weekend.


Saturday
Sky:  Mostly sunny & mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 70’s
Low:  Mid to upper 50’s
Sunrise: 6:37am
Sunset: 7:06pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Sunday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy at night
Precipitation:  Slight chance of showers later in the day
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 70’s
Low:  Mid to upper 50’s
Sunrise: 6:38am
Sunset: 7:04pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Friday Night into Saturday Morning Surface Analysis



Saturday’s Surface Analysis



Sunday’s Surface Analysis



HPC Thursday - Sunday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



HPC Sunday - Tuesday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  75F
Saturday Morning
Wind: N 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming SW
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  75F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 19 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 18 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: NNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 15 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 14 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 18 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: N 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 15 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: N 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 14 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  70F
Saturday Morning
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet  
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  N 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Saturday Morning
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 19 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 17 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: NNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 15 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.

Global Model Wave Period Saturday 8AM



Global Model Wave Height Saturday 8AM
 





NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hunter 2]

Cool    I will fish both days

[Scott G.]

  thanks 

[fellinger]

Great info! I'll let you know how tomorrow looks.

[Ms Fish]

Thank you again for a solid report! Especially the part where THIS weekend will be great! 

[Pfishingruven]

Great info! I'll let you know how tomorrow looks.

Cool, thanks!  You picked a great day to go.  It could get rough out there this weekend into next week...I am seeing 8-9 foot wave heights with a 19 second swell!  See if these numbers change at all with the next few model runs.

[fellinger]

Great info! I'll let you know how tomorrow looks.

Cool, thanks!  You picked a great day to go.  It could get rough out there this weekend into next week...I am seeing 8-9 foot wave heights with a 19 second swell!  See if these numbers change at all with the next few model runs.

How fun would they be in a 23'??

[Pfishingruven]

Great info! I'll let you know how tomorrow looks.

Cool, thanks!  You picked a great day to go.  It could get rough out there this weekend into next week...I am seeing 8-9 foot wave heights with a 19 second swell!  See if these numbers change at all with the next few model runs.

How fun would they be in a 23'??

Depends on your definition of fun?!

 

[Pfishingruven]

I haven't updated the tropics in several days because there really hasn't been anything going on.  Hurricane Nadine is an 80mph Category 1 Hurricane forecast to weaken from this point.  This storm will stay far out to sea and we should not see any more effects from this storm.  There is also a new invest, Invest 92L.  This area is being given a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours.  The models are taking this storm into the the Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula and strengthening it to a category 3 storm.  If this storm develops and takes the track the models are forecasting, it will be in an area of favorable development.  It is also, climatologically, historically the area where most tropical development occurs in September.  This will likely not directly impact the East Coast, but is one to keep an eye on.

NHC Tropics Satellite



Invest 92L Model Tracks



Invest 92L Model Intensity



Climatological Areas of Origin and Typical Hurricane Tracks for September

[fluke - u]

 ..Thanks