NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition October 8-12, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

The unsettled weather pattern continues.  This is common for change of seasons and this time of year.  Chance of rain most of the week, with Thursday looking to be the lowest chance for the week.  Temperatures will vary from the 70's to the 50's for highs and lows in the 50's and 40's.  Daily temperatures may vary from north to south and coastal to inland.  There may even be a frost or freeze Tuesday Night for inland and northern areas. Water conditions vary by location and day with possibility of higher wind, seas and small craft advisories Wednesday Night through Friday.  Surf conditions will be normal with wave heights 1-2 with a period of 2-3 foot waves on Wednesday.

Chilly and dry high pressure will build into the area on Monday into Tuesday.  Low pressure system will evolve off the coast of the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday.  A cold front will pass through the area later on Wednesday followed by more dry and seasonal high pressure on Thursday.  A stronger cold front will arrive on Friday with Canadian high pressure to follow. 

Monday

Sky:  Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy   
Precipitation:  0% to slight(day) & 50%(night) chance showers
High:  Upper 50’s
Low:  Mid 40’s
Sunrise: 7:00am
Sunset: 6:28pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-9/10
Weather2Hunt.com-33/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  30%(day) & 40%(night) chance of showers
Temperatures
High:  Mid 60’s
Low:  Low to mid 50’s
Sunrise: 7:01am
Sunset: 6:27pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance all day of showers
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 70’s
Low:  Upper 40’s
Sunrise: 7:02am
Sunset: 6:25pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Thursday
Sky:  Sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 60’s
Low:  Mid 40’s
Sunrise: 7:03am
Sunset: 6:24pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-30/50

Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance (this could increase as the week progresses)
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 60’s
Low:  Mid 40’s
Sunrise: 7:04am
Sunset: 6:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-
Weather2Hunt.com-

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis


Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  69F
Monday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming E 5 knots at night and S after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  E 5-10 knots becoming NE and E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less becoming 1-2 feet at night
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W 10-15 knots in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming SW
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind: 
Seas: 
Friday Afternoon
Wind:
Seas: 

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  68F
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 11 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NE 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 13 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 13 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 13 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  69F
Monday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 12 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: NNW 3 feet at 4 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SW 3 feet at 3 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 3 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  51F
Monday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Monday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming E 5 knots at night and NW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots becoming W 5-10 knots at night
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Morning
Wind: 
Seas: 
Friday Afternoon
Wind: 
Seas:

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 11 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: NW 5 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: WSW 4 feet at 5 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: WSW 5 feet at 5 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisories will be in effect from Friday Afternoon through Friday Night for all of the NJ adjacent coastal waters including Raritan Bay, New York Harbor and Delaware Bay.  SCA's are in effect from the US/Canada boarder south through North Carolina.

Small Craft Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

ANZ430-431-120900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.121012T1600Z-121013T0400Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT FRIDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL START DECREASING EARLY
  FRIDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

ANZ450>455-120900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.121012T1600Z-121013T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT FRIDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE
  HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL START DECREASING FRIDAY
  EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ430-120715-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.FRI...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
1 TO 2 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING N. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ431-120715-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.FRI...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT... BECOMING NW
20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING SE
5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING N. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-120715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.
.FRI...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING SW
AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ451-452-120715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.FRI...W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING E 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SW 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ453>455-120715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
334 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.FRI...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BECOMING E
5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT.

$$

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisory noon Friday through midnight tonight for all adjacent NJ Coastal Waters, including Raritan Bay, New York Harbor, Delaware Bay and all midshore to offshore locations.  SCA's are in effect for just about the entire East Coast from Maine through Georgia with Gale Warnings in effect for some northern and  southern areas, including Baltimore Canyon through the Hague Line S and S Channel to the Hudson Canyon in Martha's Vineyard.

There are also Freeze Warnings and Watches issued for parts of NJ.

Freeze Warning is in effect from 2 AM - 9 AM Saturday Morning for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon & Somerset Counties.

A Freeze Watch is in effect from late tonight through tomorrow morning for Ocean, Cumberland, Atlantic & Southeastern Burlington Counties.

OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST

Small Craft Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

ANZ430-431-122100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.121012T1600Z-121013T0400Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
438 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THIS
  AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO NORTH THIS EVENING.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

ANZ450>455-122100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.121012T1600Z-121013T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
438 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS
  AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO NORTH THIS EVENING.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ430-122100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 1 FOOT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT IN THE
EVENING...THEN BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ431-122100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT... BECOMING
NW 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS AROUND
2 FT...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING E
5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ453>455-122100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT... BECOMING
NW 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING
TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING E 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NW. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO
7 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450>452-122100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
434 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW
15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING
TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO
4 FT.
.SAT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING SE AROUND 5 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SW 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT.

$$

Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-122030-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0007.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0012.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN
  NEW JERSEY, TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF
  NOT PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

Freeze Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NJZ020>022-027-122030-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.A.0008.121013T0700Z-121013T1300Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF NOT
  PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

GORSE

[Pfishingruven]

Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Mercer, Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Northwestern Burlington, Southeastern Burlington, Ocean, Cumberland, Atlantic & Cape May Counties have an increased fire risk today due to gusty winds, dry fuels and lower humidity.  Although, a higher risk, Red Flag Warnings should not be necessary today!

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-122200-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...WHARTON STATE FOREST
955 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH COUPLED WITH DRY FINE FUELS ARE
FORECAST TO PROVIDE A RISK OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF AROUND 35
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.

$$
GAINES/MEOLA

[Pfishingruven]

The Counties in a Freeze Watch have now been issued a Freeze Warning from 2 AM - 9 AM Saturday Morning.  This is for Ocean, Cumberland, Atlantic and Southeastern Burlington.  Temperatures will make it to the freezing mark and possibly even below tonight into Saturday.

There is also a Frost Advisory for Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Mercer, Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Northwester Burlington & Cape May Counties from 3 AM - 8 AM Saturday.

Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NJZ020>022-027-131300-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0008.121013T0700Z-121013T1300Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.FZ.W.0012.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF NOT
  PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

Frost Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

DEZ001>003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ012-013-015>019-023-PAZ070-
131200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0010.121013T0700Z-121013T1200Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CAPE MAY-DELAWARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...
MEDIA
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT RISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

[Ms Fish]

Brrrrrrrrrrrr chilly for sure! Thanks as always for the heads up!! Stay warm!!!

[Pfishingruven]

Brrrrrrrrrrrr chilly for sure! Thanks as always for the heads up!! Stay warm!!!

You're welcome...a bit unseasonably cold, followed by a warm up on Saturday.

 

[Pfishingruven]

I haven't mentioned the Tropics lately because there has not been anything of concern to post about.  Activity has been low, which is good.  Some changes the last 12-24 hours, though.  What was Invest 97L, then Tropical Depression #16 and then Tropical Storm Patty, has weakened back to a Tropical Depression.  This is not likely going to affect any US land, however, some of the models are picking up on a moderate system, whether tropical, subtropical or hybrid moving very close to the coast around Tuesday or Wednesday bringing some long period swells and increasing seas.  This may stick around through Thursday.

Buoy Weather is already calling for cautious conditions and small craft advisories for inshore with 20 knot winds and 5+ foot seas and hazardous conditions midshore to offshore with 30+ knots winds and 9 foot seas.  This could change depending on the track and development or lack of development of a system.

There is also another Invest 98L out in the Atlantic/Caribbean with a 90% chance of development and will likely be a tropical storm by the morning.  It should not stay around long as conditions are not favorable for strengthening, but there is a chance it  could stay together long enough to make it into better conditions.  This is not likely a threat to any US land, but the track could bring it close to the east coast again, causing problems.  So this is worth keeping an eye on.

There is also a system the US Models are hinting at either around Tuesday or Wednesday with the approaching ocean system or as late as next Friday or Saturday...a possible moderate Nor'Easter.  This is way too far out to put any weight on, but it is something to keep in mind.  The models are picking up on some development next week and anytime a model repeatedly shows the same type of system just on several different days, it is worth mentioning and watching for possible development.  It could also turn out to be nothing.

I will update this as necessary.  If you do not hear anything, it is good news !

NHC Tropics Satellite Image



Patty Model Tracks



Invest 98L Model Tracks



Global Model Wave Period Tuesday 10/16 8AM



Global Model Wave Heights Tuesday 10/16 8AM



Global Model Wave Period Wednesday 10/17 8AM



Global Model Wave Heights Wednesday 10/17 8AM



GFS Model Friday 10/19 2PM