NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Christmas Week Edition

[Pfishingruven]

Here is your Christmas Week forecast.  The majority of this week, Monday through Thursday, will be wet or have a higher chance of rain and even some wintry precipitation for some north and western areas.  The stronger system moving through on Wednesday into Thursday could become another Winter Storm for the area.  Models are all over the place, with no agreement on a solution.  This is something to just keep in mind.  I will update on this throughout the week.  Temperatures will be in the 40's with lows into the 30's and 20's overnight.  Thursday evening into the night should begin clearing with dry conditions and sun for Friday.  Water conditions are rated good for all locations on Monday and Tuesday.  There is a chance of Small Craft Advisories for Tuesday Morning.  Conditions will deteriorate late Tuesday through Friday and likely into the weekend, with the low pressure systems moving through the area.  Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday through Friday with hazardous conditions and Gale Warnings.  Winds could reach 45+ knots with higher gusts and seas averaging 4-6 feet and as high as 12 feet for some locations.  Surf forecasts did not generate with the latest run.  Monday and Tuesday should see normal conditions with wave heights 1-2 and 2-3 feet.  Wednesday through Friday surf conditions will deteriorate with high winds predominantly from the west, rough surf conditions and wave heights 6-8 feet.

Clouds will move into the area on Monday ahead of a weak low pressure system that will bring light rain and even a wintry mix to the area.  A much stronger low pressure system will move and affect the area on Wednesday and Thursday with more rain and a wintry mix for some areas.

From the NJ Saltwater Fisherman "Weather Department", I would like to wish all of my family here Happy Holidays and a very Merry Christmas!!

Monday - Christmas Eve

Sky:  Partly sunny becoming cloudy   
Precipitation:  30% chance of rain during the day, 80% chance of rain/wintry mix (northwestern NJ, PA) at night
High:  Mid 40's
Low:  Low 30's
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 4:36pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Tuesday - Christmas
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance rain during day, Slight chance rain at night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40's
Low: Upper 20’s
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 4:36pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  80% chance of rain/precipitation after noon time, 90% chance of rain/precipitation at night
Temperatures
High:  Upper 40’s
Low:  Mid 30’s
Sunrise: 7:17am
Sunset: 4:37pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 27/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of rain/precipitation during the day, 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40’s
Low:  Mid 20’s
Sunrise: 7:17am
Sunset: 4:38pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Friday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low 40's
Low:  Mid 20's
Sunrise: 7:17am
Sunset: 4:38pm
Full Moon: 5:22am

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  Unavailable (Primary and Backup Buoys damaged by Sandy)
Monday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming NE at night
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  E 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots becoming SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots at night
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  51F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: S 1 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 3 to 5 knots
Seas: S 1 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: S 1 feet at 5 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 4 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 20 to 27 knots
Seas: E 5 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 21 to 28 knots
Seas: ESE 7 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 23 to 31 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: W 3 feet at 4 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 4 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  49F
Monday Morning
Winds: N 8 to 11 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 9 knots
Seas: S 1 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 4 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 17 to 23 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 4 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 24 to 33 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 24 to 32 knots
Seas: SE 7 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 27 to 36 knots
Seas: W 6 feet at 5 sec.
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 24 to 33 knots
Seas: WNW 5 feet at 5 sec.
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 22 to 29 knots
Seas: NW 4 feet at 4 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  45F
Monday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1 nm or less
Monday Afternoon
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming SE 5 knots at night and then W after midnight
Seas:   1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm at night
Tuesday Morning
Wind:   NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:   NW 5-10 knots becoming N at night then NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  E 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  E 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming SE at night and SW after midnight
Seas:  3-5 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Thursday Morning
Wind: NW 20-25 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind: NW 20-25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  50F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: SW 3 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 5 to 6 knots
Seas: SSW 2 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SW 3 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 5 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 14 to 19 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 7 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 22 to 30 knots
Seas: E 5 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 26 to 36 knots
Seas: SSE 13 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 28 to 37 knots
Seas: S 13 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 26 to 35 knots
Seas: W 9 feet at 6 sec.
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 25 to 33 knots
Seas: WNW 8 feet at 6 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hotrod]

 

[ped579]

Great job Matt...  Now put down your weather wand and enjoy your family this Christmas Season.

From our family to yours, Merry Christmas

Paul, Lilli and Krista Danielczyk

[fellinger]

Great job Matt...  Now put down your weather wand and enjoy your family this Christmas Season.

From our family to yours, Merry Christmas

Paul, Lilli and Krista Danielczyk

Ditto!

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Paul & Fred!!

[Pfishingruven]

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by NWS PHI for Northwestern NJ and PA.  Tonight into tomorrow morning these areas could see up to 1 1/2 inches of snow and some ice!

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-242230-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0008.121224T2300Z-121225T1200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
917 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS...LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN 1 INCH...ALONG
  WITH AROUND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS IN THESE AREAS. USE
  CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
  DESTINATION.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

Monday Night Snowfall



Tuesday Snowfall



Monday Night Ice

[Pfishingruven]

The Winter Storm I hinted at earlier in the week, will affect our area, however, most areas, except northwestern NJ and PA will see snow.  The rest of the area will see 2+ inches of rain, high winds, possible flash flooding along with river/stream flooding and coastal flooding.  Here is a link to the Briefing released from NWS PHI/Mt Holly.

NWS PHI Winter Storm Briefing #1

[Pfishingruven]

The National Weather Service PHI/Mt Holly has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Sussex County NJ and neighboring PA areas for Wednesday 12PM - Thursday 12PM.  New snowfall totals of 4-8 inches are possible in these areas.  There is also a Winter Weather Advisory for Northwestern NJ as well as High Wind Warnings and Coastal Flood Watch for coastal areas.  This Storm will track to the south of the area and then ride up to the coast.  While the forecast is for this storm to stay in close to the coast, this track could change and areas receiving snow could vary over the next 12-24 hours.  Small Craft Advisories will continue with winds to 25 knots and seas to 4 feet and increasing into the next few days.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-261100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.121226T1700Z-121227T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.121226T1700Z-121227T1700Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
921 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR CARBON
  AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW
  JERSEY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TWO TENTHS TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT
  TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD THEN END LATER
  THURSDAY MORNING.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME VERY
  HAZARDOUS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MIGHT ALSO CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER
  OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
  THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-261100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.121226T1700Z-121227T1200Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
921 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND WARREN AND
  MORRIS COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES, HIGHEST TOWARD THE POCONOS
  AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS IT BECOMES HEAVIER.
  PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE
  IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND TO PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT
  WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MIGHT PERSIST
  DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS,
  ESPECIALLY WHEN FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING. EXERCISE EXTREME
  CAUTION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S DURING PRECIPITATION, RISING SLOWLY
  OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF A MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SZATKOWSKI/GIGI