NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Jan 28-Feb 1, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

This week will have a very unsettled weather pattern.  There will be a chance of precipitation every day this week, starting off with a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain on Monday, followed by rain showers in the middle of the week and snow showers at the end of the week going into the weekend.  Temperatures will start off cold with highs only in the 30's and gradually warm to highs in the 60's and again returning back to the 30's by the end of the week. Lows will range from the low 20'sto the mid to upper 40's.  With increasing temperatures from a southern warm front, Wednesday into Thursday could bring thunderstorms and some severe weather for some areas of NJ.  Water conditions will be cautious to hazardous for inshore to midshore to offshore locations.  There will be a few small windows where water conditions will be rated good, early in the week on Monday and Tuesday.  Small Craft Advisories are likely most of the week with winds up over 30 knots, Gale Force wind gusts and seas to 7 feet in places.  Fog is also possible Tuesday into Tuesday Night.  Surf conditions will not be much better this week.  While wave heights won't exceed 3-4 max with 0-2 and 1-2 feet the average all week, predominantly western winds will gust well over 30 knots.

High pressure will control the area starting on Monday.  A warm front will then move slowly northeast through the region later on Monday into Tuesday.  A strong cold front will move through the Middle Atlantic on Wednesday Night followed by reinforcing cold fronts on Friday and into the weekend.

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  60% chance of wintry mix/freezing rain/rain during the day and 40% chance of rain at night
Temperatures
High:  Upper 30's
Low:  Upper 30's
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 5:10pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 47/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of rain/drizzle day and night
Temperatures
High:  Low 50's
Low:  Mid to upper 40's
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 5:11pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  70% chance of rains showers/thunderstorms during the day, 60% chance of rain showers at night
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 60's
Low:  Upper 30's
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 5:12pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of rain showers during the day, 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40’s
Low:  Mid to upper 20's
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 5:14pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of snow showers during the day, 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:  Low 30's
Low:  Low 20's
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 5:15pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt-  33/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Saturday


Sunday into Monday Snowfall Totals



Monday into Tuesday Snowfall Totals




Monday into Tuesday Ice Totals




Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  Unavailable (Primary and Backup Buoys damaged by Sandy)
Monday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, visibility 1-3 nm
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  S 15-20 knots with gusts to 35 knots becoming gusts to 40 knots at night then W with gusts to 30 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet subsiding 1-2 feet throughout the late afternoon
Friday Morning
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  W 15-20 knots becoming NW 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  42F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSW 2 feet at 3 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 6 sec..
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 20 to 28 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 19 to 25 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 10 sec
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 8 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  37F
Monday Morning
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 24 to 33 knots
Seas: S 7 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 19 to 26 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 19 to 26 knots
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 4 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 4 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  35F
Monday Morning
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet increasing 2-4 feet at night
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 20-25 knots becoming W 15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  44F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: WNW 2 feet at 3 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SW 3 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 25 to 34 knots
Seas: SSW 9 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 31 knots
Seas: S 11 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 22 to 29 knots
Seas: S 9 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 21 to 29 knots
Seas: WSW 7 feet at 6 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY   
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: W 6 feet at 5 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Mercer, Passaic, Essex, Bergen & Middlesex Counties as well as neighboring PA & NY Counties for Snow & Ice accumulation from 6AM Monday through 2PM Monday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ007>010-015-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-281000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.130128T1100Z-130128T1900Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...WASHINGTON...
MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...TRENTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
340 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH
  AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND THE MORNING
  COMMUTE...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
  MIXTURE BY LATE MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
  RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN
  WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON MONDAY. MANY SURFACES MAY
  BECOME ICY...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

CTZ005>008-280445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.130128T1800Z-130129T1100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
340 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO
6 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED...WITH A SNOW AND SLEET
  MIDDAY...BECOMING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH A
  COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW LATE TOMORROW
  MORNING...MIXING WITH SLEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION TO
  ALL FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW
  EVENING...LASTING UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE
  HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECASTED FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
  THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY MAY MAKE FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
  ON THE ROADWAYS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION BY TOMORROW EVENING ON TOP
  OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
  ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR FREEZING
  MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY ICE TO REMAIN UNTIL DAYBREAK TUESDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SEARS
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

NJZ002-004-103>106-280445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.130128T1500Z-130128T2300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
340 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6
PM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY OUTSIDE OF THE NEW
  YORK CITY METRO AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED...WITH A SNOW AND SLEET
  EARLY IN THE DAY...BECOMING FREEZING RAIN FOR A PERIOD TOMORROW
  AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ALONG
  WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW LATE TOMORROW
  MORNING...MIXING WITH SLEET AROUND MIDDAY. A TRANSITION TO
  FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
  THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL RAIN BY TOMORROW EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY MAY MAKE FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
  ON THE ROADWAYS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON TOP
  OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
  ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

There are two areas at highest risk for freezing rain today.  Mesoscale Discussions have been issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

Snow will begin changing over to sleet and freezing rain, with the greatest chances of accumulating ice in the outlined areas of the maps.

Be safe!  Roads will ice immediately due to low surface temperatures and ice will begin accumulating on tree limbs and power lines.

Mesoscale Discussion #57



Mesoscale Discussion #58

[Pfishingruven]

Although tomorrows high temperatures will make it to the low and mid 60's, the weather will be anything, but nice.  Up to 3 inches of rain could fall locally.  With already saturated and frozen grounds and high streams and rivers, this could cause flash flooding.  Most of the state is at a threshold at or below 3 inches of precipitation over 12 hours for flash flooding.  In addition to rain, expect wind gusts to 60 mph.  This could cause beach erosion and coastal flooding as well.

Be safe!!

NJ Active Advisories, Watches & Warnings

[Pfishingruven]

Along with high winds and rains, there is a chance of severe thunderstorms also!  The biggest threat will be damaging winds from organized squall lines moving through the area tomorrow.  Supercell formation is possible both embedded in the squall line and breaking off ahead of the line.  These supercells have the ability and atmosphere to spawn tornadoes as well.  This risk is very low, but a possibility tomorrow...so keep your eye to the sky and ear to a weather radio!

[paul-e]

Thanks. Better get the basement floor pump ready.

[Hunter 2]

 

[Scott G.]

  Thanks for the Info. 

[Pfishingruven]

Storms will move into the area from the southwest, moving northeast later this afternoon with the heaviest of the storms later this evening into tonight.  High temps may not reach the forecast marks today, especially in northern NJ.  Ahead of the front we will see high winds of 20-30mph with gusts of 55-60mph are likely today.  High Wind Watches and Warnings are in effect throughout the state with Marine Advisories and Warnings as well.  These winds could cause further coastal erosion and coastal flooding.  There is a chance of thunderstorms and even severe thunderstorms as the cold front approaches the area bringing with it a very organized squall line stretching across the entire US from north to south.  This line could bring damaging winds and the possibility of a tornado embedded within the squall line.  Heavy rains will come too, although rain totals have been reduced down to 1-2 inches with locally more.

Be safe.  Keep and eye to the sky and an ear to the weather or a weather radio, just in case!

Severe Weather Potential



Damaging Wind Probability



Tornado Possibility



Rainfall Totals

[Reel McCoy]

Thanks 

[Ms Fish]

Thanks! Everyone be safe!!!