NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Feb 11-15, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

This week will start out wet, with rain and freezing rain across most of state on Monday.  By Monday Night it should start to clear and remain dry through Wednesday Night when there is a chance of rain and/or snow. This chance could increase and continue through Thursday with the possibility of a coastal low, however, right now it looks like it will stay well to our east only bringing the overnight showers.  Thursday and Friday will likely be clear with some chances of snow return Friday Night.  Temperatures will be slightly above normals.  High temperatures this week will be in the mid to upper 40's with possibilities of mid 50's on Monday.  Low will be in the low 30's and into the mid and upper 20's.  Water conditions to start the week will cautious to hazardous with Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings likely on Monday and Tuesday for all locations.  Wednesday should see good ratings for all locations with Thursday and Friday varying by location, however most areas will see Small Craft Advisories.  Surf conditions will be normal to moderate.  Wave heights will remain in the 0-2, 1-2 foot range die to predominantly western winds, however, for most of the week these winds will be gusty above 20 knots.

Strong low pressure in the Upper Midwest will move into the Western Great Lakes and then into the Canadian Maritimes Monday into Tuesday.  A warm front associated with this low pressure will lift through the region Monday Morning followed by a cold front Monday Evening.  A new area of low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast Wednesday Morning, intensifying as it move northeastward Wednesday Evening.  It will likely end up east of our area Thursday, however the definitive track is unknown.  Low pressure in the Great Lakes will send a cold front to the East Coast Friday Night.

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy, patchy fog before 8am
Precipitation:  100% chance rain during the day (western & northern areas could see freezing rain in the morning), 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40's to Mid 50's depending on location
Low:  Mid 30's
Sunrise: 6:54am
Sunset: 5:27pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny and mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40's
Low:  Mid 20's
Sunrise: 6:53am
Sunset: 5:28pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day,50% chance rain/snow at night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40's
Low:  Upper 20's
Sunrise: 6:52am
Sunset: 5:29pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 30% chance of rain/snow at night
Temperatures
High:  Upper 40’s
Low:  Low 30's
Sunrise: 6:51am
Sunset: 5:30pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 30% chance snow at night
Temperatures
High:  Upper 40's
Low:  Low 30's
Sunrise: 6:49am
Sunset: 5:31pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt-  33/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  36°F
Monday Morning
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, widespread fog, visibility less than 1 nm
Monday  Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to W 10 knots at night then increasing to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, widespread fog, visibility less than 1 nm then becoming 2 feet at night with patchy fog, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Morning
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots at night
Seas:  2-3 feet diminishing 1-2 feet at night
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming SE at night and NE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, visibility 1-3 nm at night
Thursday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm around midnight

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 4 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 14 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 18 to 24 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 8 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 8 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SSE 1 feet at 8 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 2 to 3 knots
Seas: SSE 1 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 4 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: W 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 5 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 5 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 20 to 27 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 20 to 27 knots
Seas: S 6 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 4 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SSE 1 feet at 7 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SSE 1 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas: W 3 feet at 3 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 3 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  41°F
[b]Monday Morning[/b]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing W 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots at night
Seas:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:   W 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:   W 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots at night then NW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet diminishing 1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  E 5-10 knots becoming E 10 knots at night then N with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet becoming 2-4 feet with visibility 1-3 nm at night
Thursday Morning
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots at night
Seas:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides


 

Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  36°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 17 to 23 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 4 sec.
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 24 to 32 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 26 to 35 knots
Seas: WSW 8 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 31 knots
Seas: W 8 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 8 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 5 to 6 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ENE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 19 to 25 knots
Seas: WSW 5 feet at 5 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 18 to 24 knots
Seas: WSW 5 feet at 5 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Ms Fish]

Thank You~ 

[PeggyLee]

WOW.  That is a lot of great information.
 

[Pfishingruven]

There is a possibility of a few inches of snow across most of the state.  It is still questionable how it will play out for track, totals and who will actually see snow.

I will update this tomorrow morning, once some of the data comes inline to an agreement!

[Pfishingruven]

Well, that coastal low that I mentioned in the Weekly Outlook is going to track close enough to the coast to bring moisture to all of NJ in some form or another.  There will already be cold air in place as well, so for most this will be a snow event.  Only areas that will possibility see more rain or only rain than snow will be immediate coastline and extreme southern areas.  Snow accumulations will increase from south to north with most of the state seeing 2-4 inches, worst case scenario 4-8 and best case all rain or 1-3 inches.  This event should start late evening/early night arounf 8pm or so, snow through the night and clear out by midday.

I will update as necessary.  There is a possibility of more snow this weekend, right now it looks like a 1-3 inch event statewide.

Storm Track



Snowfall Totals

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Weather Briefing #1

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Camden, Gloucester, Northwest & Southeast Burlington, Ocean & Salem Counties.

A weaker low pressure system will track out along the coast bringing rain this evening to the entire state with that rain changing over to snow for most areas.  Accumulation totals have been lowered since yesterday, but most areas will see 1-2 or 2-4 inches.  Some coastal and southern and southeastern areas will see less than an inch.  Snow should begin later evening into the night.

All coastal waters, except Raritan Bay/New York Harbor are under Small Craft Advisories with some midshore to offshore areas posting Gale Warnings.

Be safe

NJ Winter Weather Advisory

Snow Totals





Storm/Low Tracks

[Ms Fish]

It miiiiight have snowed for like 3 mins tops, around 7ish then just stopped. Nothing at all by me. And that is just fine.... for now