NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Feb 25-Mar 1, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

The week will start out dry on Monday with rain/wintry mix moving in by Tuesday and sticking around through Thursday morning or afternoon.  By Thursday rain/snow chances will be minimal with mostly scattered to isolated showers.  By Thursday Night, clouds will be clearing out leading into a dry and mostly sunny Friday.  High temperatures will be the mid to upper 40's all week with occasional 50's.  Lows will still drop down into the mid to low 30's and even upper 20's some nights.  Water conditions will vary all week by location.  The model data is not matching the actual weather forecast this week.  Small Craft Advisories are likely for most of the week, with the possibility of subsiding winds Wednesday and Thursday, however seas could still be in the 5-6 foot range at 8 seconds on these days.  Tuesday and Tuesday Night could see Gale Force wind gusts and seas to 6 feet. Surf conditions will vary all week also, with Monday in the 0-2 and 1-2 wave heights, Tuesday will see an increase of 4-5 with a Gale Force easterly wind gusts, Wednesday could see some 3-4 foot waves with a return of 1-2 feet for the rest of the week.  Again, model data is not matching with meteorologist inputted forecasts as of 9:33 PM Sunday Night.  I would expect a change in the models or a change in the forecasts.  Either way, if you have plans to be out on or near the water this week, make sure you double check both written forecasts at NWS PHI and NWS Marine Area Forecasts through Buoy Weather or NOAA.   

High pressure will build eastward and move over our region late Monday.  Low pressure developing in the Southern Plains will track northeast, reaching the Ohio Valley on Tuesday while a secondary low will develop over the Carolinas.  The secondary low will move over our region Wednesday before tracking into New England.  The primary/initial low will move across the Eastern Great Lakes and Northeastern States Wednesday Night and Thursday before it tracks out to sea.  An area of upper low pressure will influence our weather Friday and into the weekend. 

Monday
Sky:  Sunny and mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 40's
Low:  Upper 20's
Sunrise: 6:36am
Sunset: 5:43pm
Full Moon: 3:27pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 47/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Increasing clouds becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  70% chance of rain/wintry mix (northern areas) during day, 100% chance of rain/wintry mix (northern areas) at night
Temperatures
High:  Upper 40's
Low:  Low 40's
Sunrise: 6:34am
Sunset: 5:44pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of rain during the day, 30% chance of rain/wintry mix/snow at night
Temperatures
High:  Low 50's
Low:  Low 30's
Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 5:45pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of rain/snow showers during the day, 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40’s
Low:  Low 30's
Sunrise: 6:31am
Sunset: 5:46pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40's
Low:  Upper 20's
Sunrise: 6:30am
Sunset: 5:47pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt-  43/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  39°F
Monday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 10 -15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming N 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday Night
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less at night
Tuesday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 20-25 knots increasing 25-30 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-5 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming S 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-4 feet subsiding 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet evening diminishing to 1 foot or less at night
Thursday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, visibility 1-3 nm
Friday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 8 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: N 5 to 7 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: E 6 to 9 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 12 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ESE 14 to 19 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SE 20 to 26 knots
Seas: E 9 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 7 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 8 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 8 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 8 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 7 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: E 9 to 13 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 12 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 16 to 22 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: ESE 8 feet at 8 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 7 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 8 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: NW 3 feet at 4 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: NW 3 feet at 4 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  37°F
Monday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 10 -15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming SE after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet building 3-5 feet in the afternoon
Tuesday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 25-30 knots becoming SE after midnight
Seas:  4-7 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Friday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots diminishing 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides


 

Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  40°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: E 5 feet at 9 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: N 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ENE 5 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: E 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ENE 5 feet at 11 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ENE 5 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 27 to 37 knots
Seas: ESE 13 feet at 8 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 11 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 7 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 8 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI has issued Weather Briefing #1 for a weak Winter Storm (low pressure) that will affect all of NJ Tuesday into Wednesday.  Most of NJ will only experience rain and possibly a wintry mix, while some northern and northwestern areas could see 1-2 inches of snow with a wintry mix and even some freezing rain.  Areas receiving mostly rain could see 1-1.5 inches with locally higher amounts.  This could cause some minor flooding from small streams, local flash flooding more from poor drainage or storm drains clogged with leaves than due to oversaturation.  Flash flood guidance indicates 2+-3+ inches would be needed to cause any major flash flooding over 3-12+ hours.  Winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts to 45+mph are possible with a predominant onshore flow and higher lunar tides.  This could cause minor to moderate coastal flooding. There will likely be Small Craft Advisories with the possibility of Gale Warnings as well for all coastal waters.

This should only be a moderate event at most.  I was surprised to even see a Weather Briefing issued this afternoon.  Years ago, this would just have been handled with a forecast and a Hazardous Weather Outlook, however, it is always better to be aware and prepared than left in the dark.

I will update this tomorrow afternoon with the next briefing or as soon as information is passed down the line.

Be safe!!

NWS PHI Weather Briefing #1

[Hunter 2]

 

[Scott G.]

Thanks for the info.

[Pfishingruven]

There are not any major changes from yesterday.  Rain mixed with sleet will turn over to a wintry mix/snow for Northwestern NJ while the rest of the state will change over to rain.  Snow accumulations will be in the 1-2 inch range, with rain to 1-1.5 inches.  There is a possibility of some freezing rain across Northwestern areas as well.  Other areas could be slick due to sleet, however, most areas will see temperatures above the freezing mark.  Some minor small stream flooding and localized "flash flooding" could occur in areas with poor drainage.  Winds will average 15-20mph with some gusts to 45+mph.  Along the shore could see winds in the 20-30mph range with higher gusts as well.  This could cause some minor coastal flooding.  Total tides could run to 1-2 feet over MHHW.  Sandy Hook could see 7 feet total.  This is just slightly higher than average astronomical tides.

A Winter Storm Advisory has already been issued for Sussex County.  Coastal Flood Advisories are also in effect for all coastal counties, including Raritan Bay and Delaware Bay/River.  Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings have also been issued and will continue through tonight into tomorrow morning.

This is nothing major for us.  Other areas, including New England will see a significant to major Winter Storm with 12+ inches of snow.

A quick look ahead...I know we all want to see Spring, however, next week looks like some very cold, below normal, temperatures all week with the possibility of some precipitation in there.  In fact, this could be the coldest and longest stretch of cold air for our region this Winter.

Be safe!!

NWS PHI Weather Briefing #2

Storm Track



Snowfall Totals



Ice Totals