NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition May 11-12, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

A wet, messy start to the weekend.  Saturday has high chances of more rain and thunderstorms.  Rain could be heavy at times and thunderstorms could be strong to severe.  Sunday will begin clearing out, still with a small chance of rain during the day and then stay dry with mostly sunny skies.  High temperatures on Saturday could reach mid to upper 70's with highs on Sunday only making it into the mid to upper 60's after the cold front moves through.  Lows will be in the mid 50's Saturday and then dip down into the low 40's Sunday Night.  Water conditions for Saturday are cautious for all locations except areas north of Manasquan Inlet and bays and rivers.  Even without the models going this way, winds will be in excess of 15 knots statewide with some areas seeing 20+ knots with seas building 4-6 feet.  Inshore areas south of MI and Midshore to Offshore areas will see Small Craft Advisories late Friday and all day Saturday.  As the front moves through, these northern areas on the oceanside have high chances of seeing Small Craft Advisories as well.  Sunday all areas will have good water conditions as winds and seas subside.  Water temperatures have increased some, with most bays and rivers around the 60 degree mark and ocean waters in the mid to some upper 50's in southern areas.  Surf conditions will be normal with 1-2 foot waves on Saturday, however gustier winds out of the west and 0-2 feet on Sunday with moderate winds to 15 knots out of the west again.

A long look ahead at the 7-10 day Forecasts looks like the beginning of the week through midweek will be dry with a gradual warm up from low to mid 60's to mid 70's.  Overnight lows could still drop down into the lower 40's most of the week.  Rain is possible towards the end of the week.  Water conditions should be good through Wednesday when winds and seas will increase the likelihood of Small Craft Advisories.
 
Low Pressure over the Great Lakes will affect the area with moderate to strong cold fronts moving across the region Friday and Saturday.  High pressure will build across the area Sunday into early next week.

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  60% chance of rain/thunderstorms during the day, 70% chance of rain/thunderstorms at night (I think these will be increased to above 80% chance by tomorrow)
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 70's
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 5:45am
Sunset: 8:00pm
 
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Sunday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of showers during early morning, 0% slight chance for the rest of the day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 60's
Low:   Low to mid 40's
Sunrise: 5:44am
Sunset: 8:01pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 61°F
Saturday
Wind:   SW 10-15 knots
Seas:   2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots diminishing W 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:   1 foot or less
Sunday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less, 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Sunday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  54°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds

Manasquan Inlet Tides


 

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  55°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 24 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  62°F
Saturday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Saturday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  49°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 20 to 28 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures


   
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt

[wb]

sounds snotty

I needs me some snotty bass 

[Pfishingruven]

While this mornings rains are moving out of the state the next line is nearing central PA.  These storms will move in in the next couple of hours.  The SPC has increased the threat for severe weather for parts of southern NJ to a Slight Risk.  With instability, storms could quickly organize and intensify into squall lines causing damaging winds.  This threat will stick around most of the day, however as the day moves forward both rain and severe weather threats will diminish.  By tonight, mostly chances of showers before rain and clouds move out for Sunday Morning.  Sunday should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's.  A perfect day for all the mothers!

There are currently Small Craft Advisories for all ocean waters.  Winds are averaging 15-17 knots statewide with gusts over 20 knots.  Winds will increase to 15-20 knots with gusts over 25 knots.  Seas are around 3 feet at 4-5 seconds and will build to 5 feet at 3-5 seconds.  Inshore conditions will subside for Sunday below SCA levels, however winds will still be around the 10-15 knots then 15-20 knots and seas will start around 4-5 feet at 5-7 seconds throughout the day.  Midshore to Offshore will be cautious with 15-20 knot winds and seas 6 feet at 6 seconds.

SPC Severe Weather Threat for Saturday



Current Weather Map



Modeled Radar at 2PM Saturday

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has just issued a higher probability of severe weather today for almost all of NJ now.  The main threat will be damaging winds and a smaller risk of hail.

Just wanted to pass along the threat increase.  Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

Current line of storms moving across NJ in Somerset, Middlesex, Morris & Passaic Counties is now severe warned.  This will continue with most of the lines of storms that come across the state this afternoon!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion/Severe Weather Discussion for eastern Central and Northern NJ, including Sandy Hook and Raritan Bay.  There is likely to be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for these areas for damaging winds and hail threat through this evening.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion #633