NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition May 28-31, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

Tuesday and Wednesday will come with a chance of showers or thunderstorms.  Tuesday day will be scattered and isolated showers, by Tuesday Night there may be more organized showers moving in associated with the north moving warm front.  Wednesday will again be scattered and isolated before clearing out for Thursday.  Thursday and Friday will be sunny and dry.  Temperatures will steadily climb throughout the week starting in the 70's with low humidity and ending in the upper 80's, even low 90's with much higher humidity.  Lows will start in the 50's and end up somewhere in the 60's by the end of the week.  Some are calling this a heat wave, which would qualify as temperatures will stick around, likely through the weekend.  A strong, warm, humid high pressure starting in the southwestern Atlantic will move northward bringing "tropical" like temperatures and humidity to the region.  Inshore water conditions will vary on Monday and Tuesday by location.  Northern waters should be good, while areas from Barnegat Inlet south could see cautious conditions with Small Craft Advisories.  Winds could reach 25 knots from the south and seas could build to 4-5 feet at 5 seconds.  For Thursday and Friday all Inshore locations look good.  Midshore to Offshore will be mostly cautious with a few windows on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday with good conditions.  Water temperatures are holding steady, however this predominantly southern wind could cause some southern upwelling and a drop in water temperatures this week.  Surf conditions look normal all week, with 1-2 foot waves, maybe slightly higher in the southern areas on Tuesday and Wednesday with 2-4 foot waves and an occasional higher wave with gusty southern winds.      

The weekend looks dry, sunny, hot & humid.  High temperatures in the upper 80's, even 90's in places.  Water conditions are up in the air right now for Inshore locations.  With a strong high approaching the area, winds could really pick up.  However, Saturday has cautious conditions with 15 knot winds and seas 3 feet at 6 seconds.  Sunday is slightly worse with 20+ knot winds and seas to 4 feet at 6 seconds.  Small Craft Advisories are possible.  I will watch these conditions and update them as the weekend nears.  

High pressure will move offshore on Tuesday as a warm front from the Midwest to DelMarVa will start moving northeast.  Strong, warm high pressure over the Western Atlantic will be the primary influence towards the end of the week, into the weekend.

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  60% chance of showers during the afternoon, 60% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's
Low:   Low 60's
Sunrise: 5:32am
Sunset: 8:15pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low 80's
Low:   Mid 60's
Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:16pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80's, low 90's (humid)
Low:   Mid 60's
Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:17pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny & mostly clear
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80's (humid)
Low:   Mid 60's
Sunrise: 5:30am
Sunset: 8:18pm
Last Qtr: 2:59pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent
Weather2Hunt-  37/50

Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Tuesday - Saturday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  61°F
Tuesday
Wind:   SE 5 knots increasing to 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:   1 foot or less
Tuesday Night
Wind:   S 5-10 knots
Seas:   1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:   S 5-10 knots
Seas:   1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Thursday
Wind:   SW 10-15 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Thursday Night
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  55°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: W 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 8 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  58°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 17 to 23 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  64°F
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots   
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming SE 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 Feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 Feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  55°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures


NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hotrod]

Great Job.. As always Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Great Job.. As always Matt

Thanks Rod!

[Pfishingruven]

Cloudy skies covering up most of the state as a warm front around the center of the state moves slowly northward with widespread showers and some heavy pockets of rain moving in from the west.  These showers will stick around most of the day before becoming scattered from south to north later this afternoon/evening.  Any areas experiencing heavy rains will want to watch out for flooding, both flash and small stream/river, especially northern and northeastern parts of NJ.  Scattered showers will continue through the overnight.  Temperatures will range from the upper 60's to the lower 70's or so with lows only into the 60's tonight.  This warm front is bringing some increased humidity as well.

Water conditions are good for Inshore areas to the north.  Areas to the south and Sandy Hook east towards Long Island have a Small Craft Advisories issued with good conditions this morning and cautious later this afternoon.  Offshore is the same, with good conditions for the morning and cautious for the afternoon. Overall, winds could increase to 20 knots with southern and Offshore areas seeing 25 knot gusts and seas building to 4-5 feet.  Building seas seem to be more the concern than the wind and overall confidence and thresholds are much lower.  These conditions look to be more localized than widespread, so checking your specific area for details is necessary for most of this week.

Tomorrow looks pretty similar today.  Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be more scattered.  Water conditions are looking about the same, with the morning being good and conditions deteriorating throughout the day.  Again these conditions look more localized and on the lower side of SCA criteria.

Stay dry and have a great day!

[Ms Fish]

The weekend looks dry, sunny, hot & humid.  High temperatures in the upper 80's, even 90's in places.  Water conditions are up in the air right now for Inshore locations.  With a strong high approaching the area, winds could really pick up.  However, Saturday has cautious conditions with 15 knot winds and seas 3 feet at 6 seconds.  Sunday is slightly worse with 20+ knot winds and seas to 4 feet at 6 seconds.  Small Craft Advisories are possible.  I will watch these conditions and update them as the weekend nears. 


Windy again....bummer. Hey it's only Tuesday right!?!? I'll try and think positive to help make the wind mellow out!     

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt,
I look forward to your reports.

[Pfishingruven]

There is a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms tomorrow across much of the state.  I will update this in the morning, as the threat will come later in the day for our area.

The big risk is to Plains and Central US.  If you have family or friends that live in those areas in yellow, purple, pink, etc...make sure they know about the threat.  This looks like a high likelihood of a tornado outbreak with strong tornadic supercells along with hail and damaging winds!

[Pfishingruven]

Today will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy, very hazy and already some fog this morning across northern NJ and marine areas.  There is a chance of scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms across the state.  Temperatures will push the 90 degree mark today, with most of the state seeing upper 80's with high humidity making heat indexes into the upper 90's.  The SPC has placed a Slight Risk across parts of northern NJ and a generalized risk across most the rest of the state.  Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, especially across Northern NJ.  The main threat will be from multicell segments (squall lines) with damaging winds, small hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  The atmosphere could support supercell development as well, so tornadoes cannot be ruled out.  All areas need to be alert for flash flooding, especially those areas in the northeastern part of the state.  Thunderstorms are possible all day, however afternoon to late afternoon through the later evening will be the biggest risk timewise.

All Small Craft Advisories have been dropped, statewide.  Some of the models are still calling for winds to 25 knots out of the SW building seas to 5 feet at 6 seconds.  Right now, the forecasts are not matching the conditions.  There is a low chance of a SCA and winds increasing, but overall, the winds and seas should stay below SCA levels.  Check before you go out today.  Surf conditions should be normal at 2 feet with a moderate SW wind.

The rest of the week looks sunny, hot and humid with good water conditions.  This weekend looks good as well.  Saturday afternoon could bring some gustier winds and building seas approaching SCA levels, but the chance is low.  Sunday could bring in some thunderstorms and rain with gusty winds over 20 knots and seas (wind waves) to 4 feet at 6 seconds.  Offshore could have higher winds and seas.  The winds are coming from a pressure gradient again and a cold front moving through. So, timing and location are everything.

Be safe and have a good day!

[Twins n Fins]

Matt,
Can't say Thanks enough!!!!! one stop weather shopping way to go!!!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has already issued a Mesoscale Discussion just reinforcing the Convective Outlook for today.  Areas across Northwestern NJ, neighboring PA and NY (see map) will likely have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued this afternoon and regardless of a watch will have a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail and possible tornadoes.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion #853

[Pfishingruven]

Air Quality Alert
NJZ015-019-027-310400-
MERCER-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
340 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY MAY 30...

THE NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS
ISSUED A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT THURSDAY FOR MERCER AND
BURLINGTON COUNTIES.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT MEANS THAT AIR POLLUTION
CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY BECOME UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. SENSITIVE GROUPS INCLUDE CHILDREN...PEOPLE
SUFFERING FROM ASTHMA... HEART DISEASE OR OTHER LUNG
DISEASES...AND THE ELDERLY. THE EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION CAN
BE MINIMIZED BY AVOIDING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY OR EXERCISE OUTDOORS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE AND FINE
PARTICLES...VISIT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV.

$$
NJZ013-014-310400-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
340 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY MAY 30...

THE NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS ISSUED
A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT THURSDAY FOR MONMOUTH COUNTY.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT MEANS THAT AIR POLLUTION
CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY BECOME UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. SENSITIVE GROUPS INCLUDE CHILDREN...PEOPLE
SUFFERING FROM ASTHMA... HEART DISEASE OR OTHER LUNG
DISEASES...AND THE ELDERLY. THE EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION CAN
BE MINIMIZED BY AVOIDING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY OR EXERCISE OUTDOORS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE AND FINE
PARTICLES...VISIT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV.

$$
NJZ020-026-310400-
OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
340 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY MAY 30...

THE NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS ISSUED
A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT THURSDAY FOR OCEAN COUNTY.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT MEANS THAT AIR POLLUTION
CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY BECOME UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. SENSITIVE GROUPS INCLUDE CHILDREN...PEOPLE
SUFFERING FROM ASTHMA... HEART DISEASE OR OTHER LUNG
DISEASES...AND THE ELDERLY. THE EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION CAN
BE MINIMIZED BY AVOIDING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY OR EXERCISE OUTDOORS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE AND FINE
PARTICLES...VISIT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV.

$$
NJZ012-310400-
MIDDLESEX-
340 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY MAY 30...

THE NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS ISSUED
A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT THURSDAY FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT MEANS THAT AIR POLLUTION
CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY BECOME UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. SENSITIVE GROUPS INCLUDE CHILDREN...PEOPLE
SUFFERING FROM ASTHMA... HEART DISEASE OR OTHER LUNG
DISEASES...AND THE ELDERLY. THE EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION CAN
BE MINIMIZED BY AVOIDING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY OR EXERCISE OUTDOORS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE AND FINE
PARTICLES...VISIT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV.

$$

[Pfishingruven]

Sunny, hot, humid and hazy...that about sums up today (and tomorrow).  Clear skies with temperatures reaching 90's and over in most areas, mid 80's for areas right on the water.  Humidity will be higher today with hazy air conditions.  Same Air Quality Alerts are still in effect for today.  Some areas in Northern NJ could see scattered or isolated showers or thunderstorms during the day.  Inshore water conditions are rated good, with SW winds to 18 knots max and 2-4 foot seas at 6 seconds.  NWS NYC has Small Craft Advisories for Sandy Hook out through Long Island, however buoy data is not supporting these advisories.  Buoy #44065 at the entrance to New York Harbor has SW 10 knot winds with 2.6 foot seas at 6 seconds.  Offshore is cautious today with Small Craft Advisories for winds to 25 knots and seas 6-7 feet at 6 seconds.  Surf conditions are normal at 3 feet with SW winds 10-12 knots.

Tomorrow looks like almost a repeat of today.  I will have a Weekend Outlook today.  Have a good day!

[Pfishingruven]

There is a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather today across the Plains and Central portions of the US.  The setup is very similar to May 20 with the tornadoes that struck Oklahoma.  If you know anyone living in these areas make sure they are aware of the threat!

This is just a quote from the SPC forecast for the Southern Plains (risk is not just isolated to this area):

"SETUP COULD YIELD LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES."

[Pfishingruven]

Here are the Statewide Afternoon Temperatures and Humidity.  Humidity is lower than forecast so far, except for some southern areas.

[Ms Fish]

Thanks Matt!! It is sooooo beautiful out today!  Bummer I have to enjoy it through my window at WORK!  Hope who ever is fishing is have a great time! 

[fluke - u]

Thanks Matt!! It is sooooo beautiful out today!  Bummer I have to enjoy it through my window at WORK!  Hope who ever is fishing is have a great time! 

  ...Lucky you, I don"t get a window at work. 

[Ms Fish]

Thanks Matt!! It is sooooo beautiful out today!  Bummer I have to enjoy it through my window at WORK!  Hope who ever is fishing is have a great time! 

  ...Lucky you, I don"t get a window at work. 

It's a lil small but I'll share!  If you sit across from me you can look out it allll day long!   Hey Matt...big fishing weekend for me coming up! I'll post in Float Plans probably tomorrow but I (we I'm sure) are hoping you'll have a great forcast coming up! Ok, Ok, if not great then how about doable!    Pleeeeeeeeeease   

[Pfishingruven]

Today is almost a repeat of yesterday.  Dry, mostly sunny, hot, humid and hazy day.  Highs will reach the upper 80's & 90's for most places except along and on the water.  Areas on the water will see 70's & 80's.  Lows tonight only into the low 60's.  There is currently an Air Quality Alert for the entire state and surrounding areas.  Water conditions will be good for all locations, except Midshore to Offshore this afternoon will see SW winds increasing towards 20 knots and seas to 4 feet at 5 seconds.  Inshore SW winds will remain 10-15 knots max with seas 2 feet at 6 seconds with a southerly swell.  Surf conditions are 2-3 feet with SW winds to 10-15 knots.

Weekend forecast looks the same, except for a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms on Saturday now and continuing through Monday.  On Saturday these will be very scattered or isolated, if any, in the afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather across central parts of the US again. See the Risk Outlook below.

Meteorological Summer begins tomorrow and with that comes the start of Hurricane Season.  I am already seeing some activity in the Caribbean and would not be surprised to see some Invests in that area.  Also have dissipated Hurricane Barbara from the Pacific that is hanging in the Bay of Campeche that may turn into something.

Have a great day!