NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Aug 5-9, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

Another very unsettled weather pattern this week!  The week will start off unseasonably cooler with dry air and dry conditions.  By Monday Night chances of rain will begin and increase throughout the week with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms as well.  By Wednesday hotter and humid air will move in and chances of more widespread rain are possible through Friday.  2+ inches of rain are likely across the state this week with some areas seeing more locally from storms producing heavy rains.  All types of flooding conditions are a concern this week!  High temperatures will start off in the upper 70's to low 80's and increase to low to upper 80's by the end of the week.  Overnight lows will vary from the low 50's to low 70's this week.  Inland areas will see the warmest temperatures during the day with northern and coastal areas seeing the cooler end of the highs and all inland areas will see the cooler lows at night while the warmer ocean waters keep the coastal lows warmer than the rests of the state.  Sunday Night into Monday will bring very calm winds and little clouds, especially over northern areas of the state, allowing for significant radiational cooling with lows down into the low 50's!  Water conditions are rated mostly good this week.  A strong southerly flow will develop on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Inshore ocean waters could see cautious to hazardous conditions on Thursday with gusty winds in excess of 25 knots and seas building to 5-6 feet.  Midshore to Offshore could see cautious conditions on Wednesday and Thursday with winds close to 30 knots and seas building 4-6 feet.  Small Craft Advisories are possible for these locations on Wednesday and Thursday.  These conditions have nothing to do with any tropical remnants, but are simply from frontal boundaries and systems passing over the area and their placement over ocean waters.  Water temperatures are holding steady with bays and rivers in the upper 70's, Inshore ocean waters in the low 70's, Midshore to Offshore waters in the low to upper 70's and surf temperatures in the low 70's.  The 3 day southerly flow should not affect overall temperatures too quickly, but by Thursday shallower and surf temperatures could see a decrease due to southerly upwelling of colder water.  If temperatures drop, they should recover by or throughout the weekend with the help of northern and easterly winds.  Surf and beach conditions look good with Low to Moderate Risks of rip currents and normal surf conditions.  Tuesday through Thursday could see some rougher surf and increased wave heights with Thursday bringing gusty winds, rough to dangerous high surf and likely Moderate to High Risks of rip currents.  UV Index will be mostly Moderate around 4-5/15 with Monday starting Very High at 8/15 and possibly Wednesday as well.

The center of the High Pressure that was over the region on Sunday will pass off the Mid Atlantic Coast on Monday Afternoon.  A couple of weak upper level disturbances from the west will pass over the area on Tuesday.  A warm front will approach from the south and southwest  and lift through the areas on Wednesday.  Another frontal boundary from the northwest will drop into the region on Thursday Night and Friday followed by a cold front on the weekend.

The upcoming weekend is looking OK, with warmer temperatures in the low to upper 80's with drier air overall.  Saturday could bring some chances of rain and thunderstorms while Sunday will be dry and sunny right now.  Water and surf conditions are looking good right now as well.

With the remnants of Dorian moving out to see the tropics are quiet and should remain that way this week.

Happy Shark Week!!

Monday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 20% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:    Upper 70's to low 80's inland, Mid 70's along/on the water
Low:     Low 50's to Low 60's
UV Index:  Very High 8/15
Sunrise: 5:58am
Sunset: 8:06pm
Full Moon: 2:17pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather  - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy, Fog late
Precipitation:  40% chance showers and thunderstorms (some strong to severe) all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 70's
Low:   Low to mid 60's
UV Index:  Moderate 4/15
Sunrise: 5:59am
Sunset: 8:05pm
New Moon: 5:52pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 47/50

Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of showers and thunderstorms (some strong to severe) all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's to low 80's (humid)
Low:   Mid 60's to low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 8/15
Sunrise: 6:00am
Sunset: 8:04pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 47/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% - 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80's (humid)
Low:   Mid 60's to low 70's
UV Index:  Moderate 4/15
Sunrise: 6:01am
Sunset: 8:03pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 33/50

Friday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80's (humid)
Low:   Low to upper 60's
UV Index:  Moderate 4/15
Sunrise: 6:02am
Sunset: 8:02pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Fair
Weather2Hunt - 30/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  77F
Monday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming SW late
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet increasing to 2-4 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet subsiding 1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 2 to 2 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: S 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 5 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  77°F
Monday
Wind:  N 5-9 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SSW 7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 9 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 7-10 knots increasing to 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 11 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SSW 9-13 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SSW 5-9 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides


]

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday Morning
Winds: N 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SSE 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming W in the afternoon then S late
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  72°F-75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: S 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  S 7 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Another nice day today!  Sunny, clear skies with a cloud here or there.  Highs only in the upper 70's to low 80's inland with mid 70's along/on the water.  Overnight lows will be in the low 60's for most areas, but some northern areas, higher elevations and Pine Barrens will see low to mid 50's.  These areas saw mid to upper 40's last night!  Dry air is in place over the region, with a predominant north/northwest wind which will bring a cooler breeze keeping dew points low and low humidity.  Rain chances have been pushed off until tomorrow for the entire day.  Today will be the last dry day until the weekend, as the rest of the week looks wet.

Water conditions look good for all Inshore to Midshore areas with some gustier winds to 15 knots this morning that will diminish to under 10 knots this afternoon.  Winds will be mainly from the north or northwest during the day and make the southerly switch tonight changing to the southwest.  Raritan Bay will have northwest winds 5-10 knots changing to the southwest tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have north winds 8-10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon and south tonight around 5 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have north winds 5-10 knots becoming southwest and then south late with seas 1-2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.  Inshore ocean waters will have north-northwest/north winds 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-8 knots this afternoon and then changing to south and west tonight.  Seas are 2 feet at 7-10 seconds.  Offshore waters will be cautious this morning and conditions subsiding some this afternoon.  Midshore to Offshore waters will be have north-northwest winds 11-19 knots with higher winds the farther offshore you go diminishing to 6-13 knots this afternoon and changing to south and west winds tonight.  Seas 2 feet at 7-8 seconds Midshore and 4 feet at 8-9 seconds Offshore.

Surf and beach conditions are good today with Low Risks of rip currents.  Winds and surf are light and calm with north and west winds around 5 mph and calm surf with wave heights around 1 foot.  Winds will continue out of the northwest around 10 mph and shift to the west this afternoon.  Surf will remain calm to normal with wave heights around 2 feet with light swells at 8 seconds.  Surf temperatures are still in the lower 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.

Have a great day!





















                                                                     

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A mix of sun and clouds especially for Southern NJ.  There are some showers southwest of the state moving northeast.  If these stay together they will slowly move across the Delaware Bay into NJ.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible all day today with the greatest chances coming later tonight.  The area is in a generalized risk for severe weather so some of these storms could be strong to severe as well.  Be alert for any storms moving in or popping-up today!  High temperatures will be in the upper 70's to low 80's with overnight lows in the low 60's to upper 60's.  The lower temperatures will come across northern areas tonight.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations.  A southeasterly flow has taken over today with light winds this morning that will begin picking up this afternoon and through the rest of the week.  Raritan Bay will have east winds around 5 knots changing to the south this afternoon and southeast tonight at 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southeast winds 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have southeast winds 5-10 knots changing to the south at around 10 knots tonight with seas 1 foot or less increasing to 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have varying winds from west-northwest to southeast at 2-4 knots increasing to southeast winds 7-11 knots this afternoon with seas 1 foot at 7-10 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west-northwest winds/south-southwest winds 1-4 knots increasing to south-southeast/southeast winds 6-10 knots in the afternoon with seas 1-2 feet at 6-7 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions look good today with Low Risks of rip currents.  Currently there are light easterly/southeasterly winds around 5 mph with calm surf and wave heights around 1 foot.  Winds will shift to the south at 5-10 mph today with normal surf and wave heights 1-2 feet with light swells at 8 seconds.  Surf temperatures are still in the low 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Mostly cloudy across the state this morning with some showers in Northwestern NJ and Southern NJ.  Cape May is likely seeing some thunderstorms with heavy rain moving in across the Delaware Bay.  Coastal and Marine areas are seeing some patchy fog.  Clouds will continue throughout the day with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely all day.  Highs today in the mid to upper 70's with more humid air moving in.  Dew points are as much as 10 degrees higher than the last several days and the humidity will be noticeably higher and muggy.  Overnight lows will be in the mid 60's to low 70's.  There is a generalized risk of severe weather again today, so any storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.

Water conditions are rated good this morning for all locations and cautious this afternoon for some southern areas.  Winds will be gustier today with many areas seeing 15 knots or greater.  Raritan Bay will have southeast winds 5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon and tonight then changing to the south at 5-10 knots after midnight.  Seas will start at 1 foot or less and increase 1-2 feet this afternoon and tonight before subsiding to 1 foot or less after midnight.  Patchy fog is possible again limiting visibility to 1-3 nautical miles.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southeast winds around 10 knots changing to the south tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon before decreasing back to 5-10 knots tonight.  Seas will be 2-3 feet before subsiding to 1-2 feet tonight with visibility to 1 nautical mile or less all day.  Inshore ocean waters will have southeast/south-southeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.  Southern areas could see south winds increasing to 15-20 knots this afternoon.  Seas will be 2 feet at 9-10 seconds with southern areas increasing to 3 feet at 4 seconds this afternoon.  Visibility could be limited at times to 1-3 nautical miles.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have southeast/south-southeast winds 5-15 knots with some higher gusts and seas 2 feet at 9-10 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions look good with Low Risks of rip currents.  Currently, winds are out of the east/southeast at around 5 mph with normal surf with wave heights around 1-2 feet.  Winds will shift to the south around 10 mph today with normal to slightly elevated surf and ave heights at 2-3 feet with a 2 foot southeast swell at 8 seconds.  Surf and wave heights will increase throughout the day.  Surf temperatures in the low 70's.  UV Index Very High at 8/15.

The National Hurricane Center has identified an area of interest in the Southern Caribbean that they are watching.

Tomorrow's forecast still looks good with chances of showers and thunderstorms with some areas seeing good and others having cautious water conditions.  Winds will be gusty and seas could build to 3-4 feet.  Small Craft Advisories are not likely and the worst water conditions looks to remain Offshore.  Water conditions will definitely not be like they were the beginning of the week!

Have a great day...

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Cloudy with a mix of sun and some showers across southern areas right now.  It will continue to be a mix of clouds and sun all day with a 40%-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms.  There is  a generalized risk of severe weather today and a increased risk of damaging winds across Western Central and Northern NJ and possibly some hail in northern areas or just to the west and north of NJ.  Storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains.  Highs will be in the low 80's with overnight lows in the low 70's.  Very moist air in place over the region with dew points in the 70's this morning.  This is making for very humid and muggy air.

Water conditions vary today by location between good and cautious.  Areas that are rated good are just below cautious criteria, however all conditions should remain below SCA's.  A strong southwesterly flow will persist today with moderate winds and some gusts to 25 knots in areas with seas 3-4 feet on the ocean.  Raritan Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots tonight.  Seas will be 1 foot or less increasing to 1-2 feet then subsiding to 1 foot or less late tonight with limited visibility to 1-3 nautical miles.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southwest winds 10-12 knots becoming south around 10 knots tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have south winds 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots tonight with seas 2-3 feet on lower areas of the bay and 1-2 feet on upper areas with limited visibility to 1-3 nautical miles.  Inshore ocean waters will have south-southwest winds 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots occasionally.  Winds will increase in the afternoon and be highest for southern areas.  Seas will be 3-4 feet at 5 seconds with limited visibility to 1-3 nautical miles.  Midshore to Offshore areas will have south-southwest winds 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.  Highest winds will be  Offshore.  Seas will be 3-4 feet at 5 seconds with limited visibility.

Surf and beach conditions look good with Low Risks of rip currents.  Currently, there are light winds out of the south and west around 5 mph with normal surf around 1-2 feet.  Winds could increase out of the south at 15 mph with normal to rougher surf with wave heights around 3 feet with a 4 foot south swell  at 5 seconds.  Be careful in the water today, despite a low risk of rip currents, forecast conditions could become elevated with stacked waves every few seconds!  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.

The NHC is still watching an area in the southern Caribbean for possible development.

Friday looks like a repeat of today with greater chances of rain, heavy at times and more widely scattered and slightly warmer temperatures with humid air.  Water conditions will be about the same.  The weekend looks good with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, mid 80's with humidity and good water and beach conditions.  It looks like these conditions will stretch out into next week as well right now.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Cloudy with sun peeking through in some areas and very muggy.  Northern areas have already had some heavy rains and thunderstorms with Flash Flood Watches and Warnings.  Ahead of the cold front, rains and thunderstorms will continue today with a 60%-70% during the day turning into showers and thunderstorms tonight with a 50%-60% chance.  There is also a generalized risk of severe weather with possible damaging winds, frequent lightning, very heavy rains and storms capable of producing tornadoes, especially for northeastern areas.  The biggest threat from these storms today will be heavy rains causing possible flooding conditions.  The bulk of the widespread or widely scattered rains will move out by Saturday Morning.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's inland, with low to mid 80's along/on the water and for northern areas and higher elevations.  Overnight lows will be in the low 70's and low 60's for northern areas and higher elevations.  Humid air will continue today until some slightly drier air moves in later this weekend.

Water conditions are cautious today with Small Craft Advisories in effect from for all ocean waters from Sandy Hook to Little Egg Inlet.  A strong southerly flow with southwest winds will gust 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots and seas 3-5 feet at 7 seconds.  Sandy Hook east along Long Island will have south winds 15-20 knots with seas 4-6 feet.  Here is a break down by area.  Not all areas are seeing SCA criteria conditions according to buoy reports.  Winds are picking up to under 20 knots and seas are around 3-4 feet and building.  Raritan Bay will have southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots shifting to a west wind at 10-15 knots tonight and then changing to northwest at 5-10 knots after midnight.  Seas will be 1-2 increasing to 2 feet this afternoon/evening before subsiding to 1 foot or less after midnight.  Visibility could be limited to 1-3 nautical miles during rain and thunderstorms.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southwest winds around 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots changing to southwest at 5-10 knots tonight and then shifting to the northwest after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots then becoming just 10-15 knots tonight before changing to the northwest at 5-10 knots after midnight.  Seas 2-3 feet all day.  Inshore ocean waters will be cautious and start off just under SCA criteria this morning, however Small Craft Advisories have been issued and are in effect through this evening for areas down to Little Egg Inlet.  These areas will have south-southwest/southwest winds 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots and seas 3 feet at 5 seconds building to 4-5 feet at 5 seconds.  From Little Egg Inlet south to Cape May winds will be southwest 15-20 knots still with seas 3-4 feet at 5 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have south-southwest/southwest winds 13-26 knots with seas 4-6 feet at 5 seconds building to 4-7 feet tonight.  Higher winds and seas will be more Offshore than in the Midshore range, but Midshore will still see 25 knots and 3-5 foot seas.

Surf and beach conditions are OK today with Moderate Risks of rip currents.  Currently, winds are variable, mainly out of the south/southwest at around 10 mph with normal surf at 1-2 feet.  Winds will increase from the southwest at 15-20 mph with rougher surf around 3 feet with a 3-4 foot south swell at 8 seconds.  Surf temperatures in the low 70's.  UV Index Very High at 9/15.

The tropics are back to being quiet again!

Have a great day!!

[fluke - u]

 ...Thanks for the report....

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has increased the risk for severe weather for our area to a Slight Risk.  The main threat will be lines of thunderstorms moving in causing damaging winds, frequent lightning and HEAVY rains!  Northeastern NJ, NYC Metro and Eastern Middlesex and Northeastern Monmouth Counties including Sandy Hook and Raritan Bay have a low risk of storms capable of producing tornadoes as well.  This would include waterspouts!

Storms are already beginning to form outside of the state and some storms are popping-up within the state.  Like yesterday, these small cells will grow and intensify rapidly due to the instability (daytime heating, high dew points and moisture in the air).

Be alert for any changing weather and be safe!!