NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Aug 17-18, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

After a run of nice, settled weather, the weekend will bring in some slightly unsettled weather.  However, the weekend will not be a washout.  There will be chances of rain all weekend with northern areas having very low chances and chances increasing in a southerly direction.  Southern areas will have the greatest chances of rain for the state, however we are still only talking 20%-50% even for Cape May.  Rain chances will also peak Saturday Night and Sunday Day and then lessen into Sunday Night.  Any rain will mostly be isolated or scattered with some higher chances of more widely scattered or widespread showers across southern NJ.  Even though showers are not going to be widespread, sun will not be in an abundance either with mostly cloudy to cloudy, overcast skies all weekend.  Saturday may see some sun with northern areas having the least amount of clouds.  High temperatures will range from mid 70's to low 80's with the cooler temperatures being along/on the water.  Overnight lows will be back in the mid 60's mainly with some mid to upper 50's across northern and higher elevation areas.  Some humid air will also work in this weekend, especially across central and southern NJ, with the higher humidity on Sunday with dew points returning back into the 60's with upper 60's on Sunday.  Water conditions are rated good for all locations, all weekend.  Saturday will have the lightest winds with Sunday being just a little windier.  Winds looks to be mainly easterly with some northern influence as well and could be gusty at times with seas building to 4 feet possible.  Water temperatures are about the same, maybe a couple of degrees cooler from this week with all waters in the 70 degree range.  Surf and beach conditions look good however some gustier northeast winds could make for some rougher and higher surf and Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents this weekend.  Sunday will have both gustier winds and higher surf conditions and may warrant a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.  Regardless of the risk category, a easterly wind will drive in waves and anyone should be cautious and careful all the time in ocean waters.

High pressure will remain in control through Saturday before moving offshore.  A stalled front to our south will lift northeast as a warm front and develop low pressure off the Carolinas Coast and move across to the to the south of the region on Sunday Night into Monday.

Next week will start off with the same weather as this weekend with some rain chances before high pressure takes over on Tuesday at some point bringing dry conditions for the rest of the week.  Some more seasonable temperatures will return with low to mid 80's and overnight lows in the upper 50's to mid 60's again.  This will also bring in some slightly moister air, making dew points in the 60's and moderate humidity.  Water conditions and surf conditions all look good for next week, so far right now too.

Tropical Storm Erin is still moving west-northwest at a normal 14 mph with 40 mph winds and a central pressure of 1006 mb.  The Official track continues to keep the storm north of the Leeward/Lesser Antille Islands.  From that point, it is too early to tell what will happen or where this storm will go.  From an East Coast perspective, this is something to watch over the next several days.  There is also Invest 92L in the Gulf of Mexico.  It did not do much overnight last night (the greatest amount of strengthening usually takes place at night, call diurnal max), nor show much organization or strengthening today.  Aircraft Reconnaissance was actually canceled today and is on standby for tomorrow depending upon how the system looks in the morning.  Either way, Gulf Coast States will want to watch this closely for potential development over the next few days.

Have a great weekend!

Saturday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance for northern areas during the day, 20%-50% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70's to low 80’s
Low:     Low to upper 60’s, mid to upper 50's northern areas
UV Index:  9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 6:10am
Sunset: 7:51pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-50% chance of showers all day, 0% to slight chance for northern areas at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70's to upper 70's
Low:   Mid to upper 60’s, mid to upper 50's northern areas
UV Index:  8/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 6:11am
Sunset: 7:50pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 77°F
Saturday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots becoming  NE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  0-1 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides





Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  71°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  0-1 feet becoming 1-2 feet at night

Manasquan Inlet Tides





Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  78°F
Saturday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming E 5-7 knots in the morning/afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SE 6 knots becoming variable around 5 knots late
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  ESE 5-7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  E 5-8 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides





Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  0-1 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides





Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  76°F
Saturday
Wind:  E 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  NE 15 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides





Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  70-73°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: ESE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[fluke - u]

 ....Thanks for your work.....

[Pfishingruven]

....Thanks for your work.....

You're welcome as always !

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A mix of sun and clouds this morning with heavier clouds across the southern portion of the state.  Today will continue to be a mix of sun and clouds with more clouds building in tonight.  It should remain dry across the state during the day with rain chances increasing tonight.  Southern areas have a higher chance of rain with a low pressure system sitting south of the area.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70's to low 80's with overnight lows in the mid 60's with mid 50's for northern areas and higher elevations.  Humidity will be low to moderate today with moist air starting to push the dry air out.  Dew points are in the upper 50's to lower 60's this morning and humidity is noticeable.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations today.  Southern areas from Atlantic City south including Delaware Bay may see winds and seas increasing throughout the day.  Raritan Bay will have northeast winds at 5 knots changing to southeast this afternoon and increasing 5-10 knots tonight and then diminishing to 5 knots after midnight before changing to the east late with seas will be 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have northeast winds around 8 knots becoming east in the afternoon then east-southeast around 6 knots tonight before changing again to the east-northeast after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have north winds 5-10 knots becoming east 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots late this morning into the afternoon before diminishing to 10 knots tonight with seas 1-2 feet increasing to 2-3 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have north-northeast/northeast winds 6-8 knots in northern areas, 8-11 knots in central areas and 12-16 knots in southern areas becoming east/east-northeast this afternoon with seas 1-2 feet at 9 seconds across northern areas and 2-3 feet at 9 seconds then 4 seconds for southern areas.  Midshore to Offshore will have north-northeast/northeast winds 6-12 knots becoming east at 7-13 knots this afternoon with seas 1-2 feet at 9 seconds.  Southern areas Midshore to Offshore could have winds up over 15 knots and seas to 3 feet at 4 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are good with Low Risks of rip currents.  Southern beaches could see gustier winds and some rougher, higher surf this afternoon.  Winds will be northeast around 10 mph with wave heights 2 feet with a 2 foot southeast swell at 8 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70's.  UV Index High at 7/15.

Tomorrow's forecast has changed and is very dependent on location and time.  There are higher chances of rain tomorrow, especially across Southern NJ with POP's up to 80% for Cape May area.  Areas north of Atlantic City will likely only have scattered showers, however southern areas could see more organized to widely scattered rain and showers all day.  Temperatures will remain the same with mid to upper 70's.  Water conditions have deteriorated for Sunday, especially across southern areas.  Northern areas will still have gusty winds to 15 knots with seas 3-5 feet at 5-6 seconds.  Southern areas will have cautious to hazardous conditions with Small Craft Advisories with winds to 30 knots in the afternoon and seas 4-6 feet at 5 seconds, this includes the lower portion of the Delaware Bay.  Midshore to Offshore will have cautious conditions with Small Craft Advisories for winds to 25 knots and seas 2-5 feet at 5 seconds.  Surf and beach conditions will be ok.  Northern beaches with likely have Moderate Risk of rip currents and gusty winds to 15 knots with wave heights 2-3 feet.  Southern beaches could see a High Risk of rip currents with winds to 30 knots and wave heights 2-4 feet with rough surf.

The tropics are unchanged.  Still watching Tropical Storm Erin and an area in the Gulf of Mexico.  Erin weakened then strengthened yesterday.  Erin does not look like a threat to the East Coast at all right now and will most likely turn east and go out to sea.  It will still be something to watch to make sure this track verifies over the next few days, but the storm looks like it will weaken and move away.

Have a great Saturday!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  It is cloudy with showers in some places and sun peeking out in others.  The rest of today will continue to be mostly cloudy with showers likely across most of the state later this morning and this afternoon.  Showers will be scattered to widely scattered, maybe even more widespread across central and southern NJ and will stick around into the overnight.  Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70's with overnight lows in the low 60's and mid 50's across northern areas and higher elevations.  Moist air has moved in and dew points are in the mid to upper 60's with moderate to high humidity.  Southern areas could see some gusty winds today as well, in the 15-20 mph range as low pressures moves off to the northeast.

Water conditions are rated good for northern inshore, midshore and offshore locations, however conditions are cautious across southern waters from Little Egg Inlet south to beyond Delaware including the lower portion of Delaware Bay.  Areas with Small Craft Advisories will see winds 25-30 knots with seas to 5 feet.  These conditions will begin to improve by tonight and through the overnight.  Raritan Bay will have east winds around 5 knots shifting to northwest tonight with seas 1 foot or less.   Barnegat Bay will have east-northeast winds around 10 knots changing to northeast at night and north-northwest after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have northeast winds 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots then north winds at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots tonight diminishing to northwest at 5-10 knots late tonight with seas 2-3 feet.  Northern inshore ocean waters will have winds east 8-10 knots changing to east-northeast 9-15 knots this afternoon with seas 2 feet at 9 seconds.  Southern inshore ocean waters will have east-northeast winds 15-20 knots changing to the northeast in the afternoon with 20 knot winds and gusts to 25-30 knots with seas 3-5 feet at 5 seconds.  Northern Midshore to Offshore waters will have east winds becoming east-northeast winds in the afternoon 10-15 knots with some higher gusts and seas 2-3 feet at 9 seconds.  Southern Midshore to Offshore waters will have east changing to east-northeast winds 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots and seas 4-5 feet at 5 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are ok with Moderate Risks for rip currents.  Winds will be northeast 10-15 mph for northern beaches and 15-20 knots with gusts over 20 knots for southern beaches.  Surf will be slightly rougher with wave heights 3 feet with a 2-3 foot east swell at 6 seconds.  The east wind will push the waves in and stack them up today, so be careful in the water!  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70's still.  UV Index is Low at 1/15.

The tropics are continuing with activity.  Erin is again, a tropical depression and with the weakening may end up being steered in a more westerly direction instead of turning northeast and staying out at sea.  This is still a system to watch, as it is still many days from land and a lot can change!  There is also a new area of interest coming off of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands.  Again, just a watch and see, but be aware as we are nearing the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Season and will last through September, October and November.

Have a great Sunday!