Thanksgiving Week Storm

[Pfishingruven]

The possible coastal storm/nor'easter I have mentioned in the last couple of weather updates/outlooks, is looking more and more possible.  The NWS Philadelphia has already issued Briefing Package #1 outlining possibilities and the upcoming freeze from a blast of arctic air on Saturday Night.

This is still not 100% and the forecast will likely change, but right now, model guidance is suggesting that the region and the NJ area will be affected by this storm.

Any important updates will follow!

NWS PHI Nor'Easter Briefing Package #1

[Ms Fish]

 

[fluke - u]

 ...about time ....

[Hunter 2]

Better stock up on the necessities.

[ped579]

Oh great, now besides the last minute people that have not stocked up for Thanksgiving will now be out for milk and bread  as well...

[Salty Dog]

Thanks for the heads up .

[Pfishingruven]

Oh great, now besides the last minute people that have not stocked up for Thanksgiving will now be out for milk and bread  as well...

 

[Pfishingruven]

The probability of a coastal low pressure system/Nor'Easter affecting the area next week is increasing each day.  At this point, it looks like there will be some type of involvement from a storm Tuesday Night into Wednesday.  All of the models are now trending on this system and have come to a consensus, just not agreement on timing, track or intensity.  These 3 variables will make all the difference with this system, none of which will be able to be pinned down until later this weekend and into next week!

Right now, we can expect 2-3 inches of rain on average, strong onshore winds, flooding in poor drainage areas, minor coastal flooding and some beach erosion.  These details will change several more times before the actual event.  Water conditions will not likely improve much from this weekends blow before this next round of storms moves in.  I would expect high winds and seas from a system like this.

More updates to come...

NWS PHI Nor'Easter Briefing #2

[Pfishingruven]

So, the latest forecasts keep this low pressure system onshore, or mainly onshore bringing rain and winds to the area Tuesday Night through Wednesday.  Here's the run down on the main threats right now:

- 3-4+ inches of rain causing small stream flooding, localized flash flooding and flooding of poor drainage areas.

- Gusty winds and building seas.

- Freezing rain possible (this is normal rain that freezes on contact with roads and surfaces) causing dangerous road conditions!

- Snow across higher elevations with accumulations up to 4 inches.

- Minor coastal flooding.

Now, this forecast could certainly change.  The TRACK of the storm will be the biggest determinant of what conditions we see.  A track to the west would bring less rain and less effects, overall, a track to the east could bring colder air into the picture and a low out over the ocean causing more coastal effects and depending on how far east, could bring snow, instead of rain!  The models are still not completely in agreement on their solutions and some of the afternoon runs today have a colder system with lower pressure and tracking more to the east.  So, this forecast could certainly change some over the next day or two.  River Forecasts will be available tomorrow and will have a better idea of what type of river and stream flooding may occur.

Here are some maps of the track of the storm currently and the latest briefing package from NWS PHI.

NWS PHI Thanksgiving Week Storm Briefing #3

[PeggyLee]

No No    No like this weather no how !

[kayak1]

I could be wrong.... but I sure don't see any big North East storm as they are calling for this week.....The low would have to trac much more to the East over the water....I'm Just looking forward to fishing this holiday weekend.

Kayak-1

[Pfishingruven]

I could be wrong.... but I sure don't see any big North East storm as they are calling for this week.....The low would have to trac much more to the East over the water....I'm Just looking forward to fishing this holiday weekend.

Kayak-1

As it sits now, you will be able to fish this holiday weekend, even with a storm moving through.  This storm, only this weekend, moderated from a coastal storm to an interior storm and could possibly still track out over the water.  You are talking about only a couple of hundred of miles difference to make it a coastal storm.  Either way, this is not just a front pushing through with some rain showers.  The potential for 3-4 inches of rain with some mixed precipitation in northern and western areas is possible, high winds, coastal flooding and deteriorated marine conditions will occur Tuesday Night through Thursday.  The storm will clear out by Thursday Morning with high winds and poor water conditions remaining through Friday right now.

[Pfishingruven]

OK, here is Monday’s run down on the storm.  This is pretty much the final forecast.  There may be a few minor changes tomorrow and throughout the event making it a more of a nowcast than a forecast change.

NWS PHI Briefing #4

ADVISORIES, WATCHES & WARNINGS

Synopsis & Timing

A Gulf of Mexico Low Pressure System will move out of the Gulf moving northeast affecting Gulf Coast states all the way up the Eastern Seaboard into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast over the next three days!  Effects of the storm will start as early as Tuesday Afternoon with rain and some mixed precipitation across western and northern areas.  This storm will peak Tuesday Night into Wednesday before moving out by very late Wednesday Night/early Thursday Morning.  This will affect Thanksgiving travel nationwide and of course for the East Coast.  NJ is in the direct line of fire with this storm and will take a direct hit from the strongest parts of the storm.



Track & Intensity

The forecast track of this storm is splitting hairs between an inland or coastal track.  The center of this system will pass directly over the state.  While the center will remain over land, a large portion of the storm and the strongest side of the storm will remain over the ocean.  Regardless of the track of this storm, intensity will vary from 990mb-1000mb system.  This is a moderate system, not weak and not the strongest or worst to affect the region.




Effects

A system comprised of mainly warm air and large amounts of moisture will move into the area.  Areas to the west of the center of this storm will experience the cold sector of the storm, pulling cold, arctic air from the north and west.  For NJ, most of the state will be in the warm sector, bringing warmer than average temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday before cold air returns behind the storm Wednesday Night.  Central Western and Northwestern parts of the state could experience some mixed precipitation, snow and/or freezing rain at the onset of the storm (Tuesday Afternoon into Evening), as moisture and precipitation move in with this very cold air already in place.  Below are the main conditions to affect the area:

- Rain and winter precipitation (at the onset across north/western parts of the state).  Rain totals will be in the 2-4 inch range with possibility to locally higher amounts.  Snowfall will be less than an inch with 2-4 inches across higher elevations in PA.  Any accumulating snow will be melted by the rain.  These high amounts of rain could cause localized flooding, including localized small stream flooding and flash flooding.  Areas with poor drainage are also at risk for flooding.  Areas that normally flood due to higher amounts of rain could flood with this storm.  Also, storm drains that are clogged with leaves will also cause flooding, so tomorrow is a good time to check them and clear them out to prevent any preventable flooding!

- Freezing rain and ice accumulation is possible early in the storm across Northwestern NJ, with less than 0.10 inches.  Freezing rain in any accumulation will cause extremely dangerous conditions for driving or even walking.  This could come at the worst time on Tuesday for the commute home and at dark.  Be extremely careful!

- Minor coastal flooding bordering on Moderate coastal flooding is possible for all coastal areas with the Delaware Bay showing the greatest threat for the state at this time.  Wednesday Morning’s High Tide is the greatest concern with tides running 1-2 feet above normal, bordering on 2-3 feet. With strong onshore winds and minor storm surge, areas that are prone to coastal flooding are likely to flood with this storm.

- High winds due to strong onshore flow varying from the east will be possible.  Inland High Wind Warnings are possible with 20-30 mph winds with gusts 50-60 mph are possible.  Greater NYC and Long Island Areas are already in a High Wind Watch!

- Small Craft Advisories and Gale Watches & Warnings will be in effect for varying east winds inshore 25-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots at the peak of this storm with seas 8-11.  Offshore winds will peak at 25-35 knots with gusts to 45 knots with seas 10-18 feet!  These conditions will persist through late Thursday and then improve for Friday and into the weekend.

With high winds and saturating rains, downed trees and wires are possible and loss of electricity should be planned for with any storm.

Be safe!!








Marine Forecasts

Raritan Bay

Tue: SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming NE in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the afternoon.

Tue Night: E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt...becoming SE 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Wed: S winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming SW 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the morning... Then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.

Wed Night: W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.

Thu: NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Thu Night: NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.

Fri: N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Barnegat Bay

Tuesday: SW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt. Rain, mainly after 3pm. Seas 1 ft or less.

Tuesday Night: ESE wind 12 to 17 kt increasing to 21 to 26 kt. Winds could gust as high as 36 kt. Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft.

Wednesday: S wind 25 to 28 kt becoming WSW 22 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 39 kt. Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Seas around 4 ft.

Wednesday Night: W wind around 22 kt, with gusts as high as 31 kt. A chance of showers before midnight. Seas around 4 ft.

Thanksgiving Day: WNW wind 17 to 22 kt, with gusts as high as 30 kt. Sunny. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft.

Thursday Night: NW wind 11 to 14 kt decreasing to 8 to 11 kt after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 kt. Mostly clear. Seas 1 ft or less.

Friday: NW wind 5 to 7 kt. Sunny. Seas 1 ft or less.

Friday Night: Variable winds less than 5 kt becoming N around 6 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. Seas 1 ft or less.

Delaware Bay

Tue: SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain early in the afternoon. Rain late.

Tue Night: SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt... Becoming S 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain.

Wed: SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt...becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.

Wed Night: W winds 25 to 30 kt...diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.

Thu: NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Thu Night: NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Fri: N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

Inshore Ocean Waters

Tue: SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming SE 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. a chance of rain early in the afternoon. Rain late.

Tue Night: SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt... Increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.

Wed: SW winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain.

Wed Night: W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.

Thu: NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt...diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

Thu Night: NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Fri: NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Offshore Waters

TUE
 S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S TO SE 10 TO 20 KT
 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

 TUE NIGHT
 SE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO S TO SE 25 TO
 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW PORTION...SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...BUILDING TO 5
 TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SE PORTION...SEAS 3 TO 6 FT...BUILDING TO
 8 TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.

 WED
 S TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...BECOMING S TO SW 20 TO 30 KT
 IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT W PORTION VEERING TO W TO NW AND
 DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST
 E. RAIN. SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

 WED NIGHT
 WINDS BECOMING W TO SW AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
 KT...THEN VEERING TO W TO NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18
 FT...HIGHEST E.

 THU
 NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N TO NW 10 TO 20 KT.
 SEAS 9 TO 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST E.

 FRI
 N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO
 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

[Ms Fish]

You are something else Matt.... I mean sure the "other" guys have been calling for it this week, but seriously they got nothing on you with the reporting and the graphics! I love it! Great work Matt!!! School has paid off and its to our benefit!    

[Salty Dog]

Well said Ms Fish .Yes,I second what she said ,Matt.Thanks.

[njbob49]

  Thanks Matt.   

[Pfishingruven]

A few changes today so far.  The main change is possible river flooding.  Anyone that lives near a major river needs to check this link and look at the river forecasts Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center . Right now, the Millstone River @ Blackwell Mills, Assunpink Creek at Trenton, and the North Branch of the Rancocas Creek in Pemberton will all be very near minor flood stage with the forecast rain.  The next change is that some areas are seeing mixed precipitation.  So, not just Northwestern NJ will have the possibility of some mixed wintry precipitation.  The last big change is that winds tonight will likely be greater than expected with gusts close to 60+ knots possible...that is 70 mph.  Hurricane Force winds start at just 64 knots!!

Here is the updated Briefing Package.  Batten down the hatches tonight and be safe!!

NWS PHI Briefing Package #5

[fluke - u]

 ...Thanks again for your work....

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Cloudy, mild and rainy this morning across the state.  Some areas have a break in the rain right now, but there is plenty more to come and rain is likely the rest of the day.  Thunderstorms are possible today as well.  Tonight showers and even some wintry precipitation are possible with little to no accumulation.  Flood Advisories and Flood Warnings are active in many locations of the state due to 1-4+ inches of rain that fell since yesterday.  High temperatures will vary greatly today.  Some areas will be into the low to mid 60’s, while others  in the mid 50’s and northwestern areas only in the mid 40’s.  The highest temperatures have or will occur in the earlier part of today.  By this afternoon and this evening, temperatures will fall quickly into the 30’s and 40’s.  Overnight lows will be cold again in the mid to upper 20’s inland, low to mid 30’s long coastal areas and low 20’s across northern areas.  The worst of the winds are over.  They moved through last night during the early hours of the morning.  However, the winds are not over with.  There is a bit of a lull this morning as the easterly winds move out and will be replaced by westerly winds with the passing front.  Inland winds will be in from the west to southwest at 10-15 mph with 10-20 mph along the coast with gusts to 30 mph.  Tonight winds will change to the west and increase to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast with gusts to 45 mph.  These winds will decrease some into Thursday, but remain through Friday.  Wind Advisories are still active for Ocean & Monmouth Counties.

Water conditions will be cautious to hazardous today with Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories still in effect for all coastal waters.  Winds will be still gust to 45 knots and seas to 11 feet inshore and 19 feet offshore today.  Winds are seas will persist through late Thursday, improving for Friday.

Surf and beach conditions will be cautious to hazardous with southwest to west winds 15-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots.  Surf is rough and dangerous with wave heights 4-8 feet at 4 seconds with a 5-7 foot south east swell.  Surf conditions will improve late Thursday into Friday.  Surf temperatures are in the mow to mid 40’s.

Have a great day and be safe!

NWS PHI

Advisories, Watches, and Warnings