This weekend is not shaping up to be one of the better ones with Arctic Air and a low pressure coastal storm bringing a mix of precipitation and cautious water conditions. A weak to moderate coastal storm will affect the area. While this Nor’Easter will not bring typical effects to the area, it will affect Long Island and the New England Coast as it intensifies off to the northeast. Saturday will be the main event starting after daybreak, closer to late morning or early afternoon and finally moving out early Sunday Morning. Saturday will have a mix of snow, mixed wintry precipitation and rain with accumulations of snow anywhere from 0-8 inches and accumulations of ice upwards of a tenth of an inch. Central and Northern parts of the state have the highest chances of accumulations. All areas could see snow or a mix, but that will eventually change over to rain for the remainder of the storm. Sunday will see precipitation come to an end by late morning, with the storm moving off to the northeast. Temperatures will start off COLD with warm air pushing in with the storm itself, followed by Arctic Air moving back in behind the storm. High temperatures on Saturday will range from upper 20’s to low 40’s with Saturday overnight lows in the 20’s to 40’s. Sunday overnight lows will be back into the low to mid 20’s with low teens across northern areas. This will pose a problem for any liquid on surfaces refreezing! Winds will be gusty at times from the west to northwest from 10-20 mph with 15-20 mph along the coast. Higher gusts to 25+ mph are possible, but winds will not be the main effect here over land. Water conditions may improve Friday Night into Saturday with SCA’s being cancelled, but by Saturday Afternoon/Night winds and seas will pick up again into SCA criteria, with possible gale force gusts at times. With an intensifying low pressure system over the water, winds could easily reach 35+ knots with inshore waters 3-5 feet and offshore 6-11 feet. Coastal Flooding should not be an issue with this storm now, but models are still showing tides running around a foot above normal. Any change of track or intensity could change this so be aware. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious. Surf and wave heights will be normal to a little rougher at 1-3 feet on Saturday then rough at 2-5 feet on Sunday. Water temperatures have dropped a couple of degrees with the very cold air in place across the region. UV Index will be Low at 0-2/15. Be safe out there. Be ready for whatever this storm decides to throw at us. The difference of just hundred miles here or there and 1 degree +/- makes completely different scenarios. Saturday will be a mess and Sunday will be the time to clean it up. Additional, storm coverage can be found on this thread
http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=33344.msg289912#newHigh pressure over the Southeast States will gradually weaken and shift east off the Southeastern Seaboard through Friday. A cold front from the Northwest is expected to cross the region during Friday, followed by a high pressure system across Southern Canada building into the Northeast States late Friday into Saturday. Over the weekend, low pressure developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday will track to off the Mid Atlantic coast by early Sunday. This system will strengthen as it quickly moves up toward the Canadian Maritimes through the remainder of Sunday. For next week, a quick moving clipper system will pass to our north Tuesday, followed by high pressure influencing our region into midweek.
Next week looks to be dry with a cold start moderating into the mid 30’s and 40’s for highs with teens, 20’s and 30’s for lows. Tuesday could see some possible snow showers, with a system passing to the north. Right now those chances are low. Water conditions look cautious through Wednesday, maybe even into Thursday or Friday due to pressure gradient and high pressure centered off the coast. Surf and beach conditions will be good to ok, with the possibility of some cautious conditions at times. Gusty winds and elevated seas are probable with Small Craft Advisories at minimum. Next week’s data can be skewed some by this weekend’s storm, so next week’s picture will be clearer over the weekend.
Have a great weekend and be safe!
SaturdaySky: Cloudy
Precipitation: Mixed precipitation depending on location and time (snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain)
Temperatures
High: Mid 20’s to low 40’s
Low: Low to upper 30’s inland, mid 30’s to low 40’s coastal, low 20’s across northern areas
UV Index: 0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:10am
Sunset: 4:32pm
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt.com – 27/50
SundaySky: Cloudy to mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: Rain/snow ending by late morning, 0%-slight chance for the rest of the day
Temperatures
High: Low 30’s to mid 40’s
Low: Low 20’s inland, mid to upper 20’s coastal areas, low teens across northern areas
UV Index: 1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:11am
Sunset: 4:32pm
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt.com – 30/50
Friday Night Surface AnalysisSaturday Surface AnalysisSunday Surface AnalysisFriday - Monday Precipitation TotalCoastal Waters (out to 20nm) ForecastsRaritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy HookWater Temperature: 39°F
Saturday Wind: E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Saturday NightWind: E 10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
SundayWind: NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas: 2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feet
Sunday NightWind: NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feet
Sandy Hook (Bay) TidesSandy Hook TidesSandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NYWater Temperature: 39°F
Saturday Morning Winds: NE 10 to 13 knots
Seas: NE 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 15 to 20 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feetSunday MorningWinds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 22 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feetConey Island, NY Tides[/size]
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=12&bday=14&byear=2013&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8517741]Coney Island, NY TidesSandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat InletWater Temperature: 51°F
Saturday MorningWinds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Saturday AfternoonWinds: E 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 17 to 24 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feetManasquan Inlet TidesManasquan Inlet TidesBarnegat Bay at Island Beach State ParkWater Temperature: 32°F
SaturdayWind: NE 7-12 knots becoming ESE in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 foot
Saturday NightWind: SE 8-11 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 foot
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind: WNW 12-16 knots with gusts to 22 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 footSunday NightWind: WNW 11-15 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 foot
Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides Barnegat Bay TidesBarnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)Water Temperature: 48°F
Saturday MorningWinds: ENE 9 to 13 knots
Seas: SE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ESE 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feetSunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 31 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 22 to 30 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feetCape May (Ocean) TidesCape May TidesDelaware BayWater Temperature: 40°F
SaturdayWind: E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Saturday NightWind: E 10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Surf: 1-2 feetDelaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) TidesDelaware Bay TidesOffshore WatersMidshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)Water Temperature: 53°F
Saturday MorningWinds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: NW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 15 to 20 knots
Seas: NE 4 feet at 5 secondsSunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 27 to 36 knots
Seas: S 11 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 32 knots
Seas: SSE 9 feet at 9 secondsSea Surface TemperaturesSurface20 Meters (≈65 feet)NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day LoopNWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day LoopOcean CurrentsSurface20 Meters (≈65 feet)Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution! *****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)