Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
The next few days will begin a transition to some moderate to significant winter weather systems. A clipper system will move across the region bringing a cold front across the area tonight into Wednesday. This will bring some snow showers to the state, but mainly across northern portions. High pressure will briefly build in on Wednesday during the day before moving out for Wednesday Night. By Wednesday Night a large low pressure system in the South will already begin to influence the area with rain/wintry mix and even snow. This system will move northeast, exiting the states and getting out over the Atlantic Ocean where it will begin to intensify. This Nor’Easter/Winter Storm will affect the area from Wednesday Night through Friday Night before clearing out bringing snow, winds, coastal flooding, high seas and some beach erosion. Following that system will be a large Arctic Airmass with the coldest air of this season to move into the region.
Wednesday will start out partly sunny for most of the state and mostly cloudy for northern areas becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy by night. Northern areas will have a chance snow showers all day, while the rest of the state should remain dry. Low rain/wintry mix chances will move in during the night with snow showers continued across the north. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 30’s inland, upper 30’s to mid 40’s along the coast and upper 20’s across the north. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20’s inland, low to mid 30’s along the coast and low 20’s across the north. These overnight lows will determine rain versus wintry mix versus snow. Southern and immediate coastal areas will remain all rain, inland coastal will have mix of rain to sleet, interior portions of the state moving north will have sleet mixed with snow and even some rain and northwestern and extreme northern parts of the state will have all snow. These will be scattered to light showers, if any, with not much accumulation for Wednesday Night. Greatest chances of any precipitation are to the north. Water and beach conditions will start off cautious improving throughout the day. Winds will be 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots before diminishing to 5-10 knots at night with seas 3-5 feet down to 2-3 feet at night.
Thursday will be mostly cloudy to cloudy with the preshow to the main event. Precipitation is possible across most of the state, but chances are lower again increasing from south to north. Almost the entire state, with the exception of northwester NJ will see rain or a mix on Thursday if precipitation falls. Again, rain versus wintry mix versus snow will depend on how warm temperatures get during the day and when the precipitation falls. So, Thursday Day will have chances of rain/wintry mix and snow, with snow for northern and northwestern areas. Again, these will be scattered to more widely scattered snow showers with very little, if any accumulation. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s inland, low to upper 40’s along the coast and mid to upper 20’s across northern areas, maybe even some low to mid 30’s hovering around that freezing mark. Overnight lows will be well below freezing statewide with single digits to low 20’s. Thursday Evening into Thursday Night will start the main event lasting through Friday Morning and into the afternoon for places, with some lingering snow through Friday Evening. Accumulations from 2-4 inches up to 6-8 inches are possible right now. These could change over the next 24-36 hours. If the storm shifts east or south, less snow for the area a shift to the west or north, more snow. If the system speeds…up less snow. If it slows down…more snow. Banding and areas of heavy snow cannot be determined, so some areas may see more snow than forecast if this occurs. There will also be a prominent “dry slot,” in this storm, just like any strong winter storm and areas that end up in a dry slot (southern counties right now) will end up with less snow. Winds will be gusty around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Moderate coastal flooding is possible with tides running 2-3 feet above normal. Minor beach erosion is possible as well with surf peaking at 5-10 feet. Water and beach conditions will be hazardous with Small Craft and Gale Warnings for inshore waters with north to northeast winds peaking at 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 knots and seas 5-8 feet and offshore waters with winds east to northeast 35-45 knots with seas 10-16 feet!!
Friday morning will continue the main part of the storm before clearing out. Any lingering snow will end by Friday Evening/Night. Cloudy skies will become partly sunny to mostly cloudy and then partly cloudy to mostly clear at night. This will start the next phase of the invasion of Arctic Air which will continue through next week. High temperatures will only be in the 20’s and 30’s with some 30’s and 40’s on the weekend with overnight lows in the 10’s, single digits and negatives. Wind chills will be dangerously cold. Highs for Friday will be in the teens and low 20’s with overnight lows in the single digits inland (5-10 degrees), tens to mid teens along the coast and negative temperatures across northern/northwestern areas (-5)!! Bundle up!! West winds will be 10-15mph with gusts to 20 mph. Water and beach conditions will still be hazardous to cautious with conditions possibly improving late Friday and into Saturday!
I will have any updates, which are likely. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will be issued tonight and tomorrow, as well as Gale Warnings, Small Craft Advisories and Coastal Flood Advisories. Be safe!!
NWS PHI Briefing #1
