Sunday - Monday March 2-3, 2014 Winter Storm

[Pfishingruven]

Here is some information on the Winter Storm I prefaced in the Weekend Outlook. Both snow and ice being forecast across Central and Southern NJ! This is very preliminary...more to come this weekend.

NWS PHI Winter Storm Briefing #1

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Winter Storm Briefing #2

[Kenny]

 

[Pfishingruven]

NWS NYC Winter Storm Briefing #1

NWS NYC Youtube Briefing

[SHARKBITE]

I am scheduled to travel to DC on Monday-- thought I'd give Obama a piece of my mind about fishing while I'm there ...this could turn into one verrrry loooooong ride!

[Capt. Carl]

Cant wait for spring this july!

[Hotrod]

 

[BigAl13]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Here is Saturday's Update. The storm track has shifted  south and has been trending south. This takes the bulk of the precipitation farther south across the state, but it also allows the entire state to be encompassed in cold air. No question about temperature and rain/snow lines here. There is much talk about the storm continuing to trend south. This would essentially take most of the state out of the heaviest snowfall, HOWEVER, this is very typical of all of the models. They trend south and by tomorrow will slowly trend north and west again, verifying the actual forecasts from the NWS Offices. Could the models be right, yes they could. Would we all be happy...yes we will, but I wouldn't bet it all on black or red just yet! Right now, Central and South NJ, along the coasts, is the jackpot with 8-14 inches being forecast. Ice accumulation has decreased as well, with such cold air in place. There are some spotty areas with possible ice (see maps). This is essentially a Nor'Easter eventually, just far tracking off the coast. Gusty winds to 40 knots, minor coastal flooding, Gale Warnings at sea, high seas and beach erosion are all possible. Flooding looks borderline for the Delaware/NJ Coasts right now, but something to keep in mind.

There is huge potential, both ways for this forecast to be a bust.  Farther south, less precipitation, less snow, starting from north to south. A more northerly track, less snow for the Central and Southern Counties moving the snow farther north. I think, though, that this forecast is an excellent interpretation of all of the models and the actual weather analysis that is occurring right now. This is a significant to major Winter Storm, continuing the active pattern. Coastal and Southern NJ have really dodged the bullets this Winter. Overall, these parts of the state have gotten lucky almost every time. If you look at the forecast statistically, on top of the models and meteorology based forecasts, Central/Coastal and Southern NJ are due that big coastal storm.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for all NJ Counties except Sussex, Passaic and Bergen. This does not mean these three counties will not see snow and winter weather, but their thresholds for Winter Storm Watches are lower than other parts of the state. Gale Warnings are posted for Offshore Waters at this time. Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, Small Craft and Gale Warnings are likely for the remainder of the unissued areas by tonight or tomorrow.

Of course, updates as usual! Watching a system next Thursday-Saturday as well. Cold air will still be here, so this could go either way. Right now, it looks like a potent warmer Nor'Easter that could really bring some coastal effects, but 7-10 days is a long ways away. Tomorrow starts Severe Weather Preparedness Week...with daily weather bits throughout the week.

Have a great rest of the weekend and be safe!

NWS PHI Winter Storm Briefing #3

NWS NYC Winter Storm Briefing #2

NWS NYC Youtube Briefing #2

[Pfishingruven]

Only a few slight changes right now. Storm track is slightly more to the south (this could come back north some or continue to shift south as many are thinking) so, the bulk of the 10-14 inches of snow has shifted south to Southern Ocean, Eastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland Counties  mainly. Still, Central and Southern NJ are looking at 6-10 inches with 2-6 inches across Northern NJ. It is very mild today, but cold air will beat the precipitation here, although some may see this start as rain or a mix. Patchy ice is still possible (see map). Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all of Central and Southern NJ Counties, with Winter Weather Advisories for Northern NJ. Inshore Coastal Waters have Small Craft Advisories with Offshore Waters in Gale Warnings. Winds are still likely around 40 knots with higher gusts and minor coastal flooding (not widespread) is possible as well. The bulk of the snow will start late tonight/early morning on Monday and last throughout the day. Rush hour will be a mess and by late morning to early afternoon, getting to and from anywhere could be a big problem for most.

If the Weekly Outlook is not up immediately tonight, know that tomorrow is cold and snowy with cautious to hazardous water, surf and beach conditions.

Updates to follow...expecting briefings around late afternoon.  Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

Precipitation is moving in already, scattered throughout the state. This will be rain for now with cold air moving in from the north to south, with cold air in place by 7-10 PM at the latest. The bulk of precipitation will come during the overnight. This precipitation will be mostly rain, but areas could see a mix to sleet before it changes over all to snow sometime between 7 and 10 PM or so. Heaviest snow looks to fall late tonight through the morning hours. Radar is already showing some mixed precipitation in the upper levels, melting to rain before it reaches ground level. The second radar image, the one on the right with pink and orange and yellow colors, shows the difference between precipitation particles. All solid pink color would indicate all rain or all snow. The mix of pink, orange and yellows indicates, rain, snow and sleet or a mix in the atmosphere. It is there, just going through a warm layer and melting, however a couple more hours and that will be all mix changing to snow.

[BigAl13]

so whats our accumulation going to be is the storm still following the same southern track or did it move back north as you thought it was going to?

[Pfishingruven]

This is going to be a mostly Central and Southern NJ Storm. Northern NJ will still see 1-4 inches, but Winter Weather Advisories have been cancelled for Sussex, Passaic and Bergen Counties. The track is staying south and snowfall totals have been shifted south with the 10-14 inch range no longer in NJ. Central and Southern NJ will still see 6-10 inches with locally higher amounts within any type of banding. Ice does not look like to be a widespread problem at this time. An early band of precipitation has moved out as temperatures begin to fall. As the next round of precipitation moves in, expect this to be a mix to mostly snow.

Be safe!

NWS PHI Winter Storm Briefing #3

NWS NYC Winter Storm Briefing #3

[Pfishingruven]

so whats our accumulation going to be is the storm still following the same southern track or did it move back north as you thought it was going to?

If it continues south, you are still looking at 4-8 inches...