NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: June 2-6, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

Feeling more like Summer this week with an unsettled weather pattern and unsettled water conditions, too. Showers and thunderstorms are likely every day this week, with lower chances on Monday and Friday and at night during Tuesday through Thursday. Isolated to scattered, even widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms are possible this week. With higher temperatures, higher humidity and a front stalled to the south, instability causing showers and storms could move in or pop-up throughout the state this week. Tuesday through Thursday look like the greatest chances, but Monday and Friday could see something at some point somewhere in the state. Some of these storms could be strong to severe at times and any thunderstorm entering coastal waters could increase winds and seas above forecasts. High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s inland with low to mid 70’s along the coast. Overnight lows will only be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s. Humidity will be noticeable with moderate to higher, even high humidity at times.  Water conditions will be good by midweek, however to start the week on Monday seas are running high with Cautious Conditions and Small Craft Advisories for Hazardous Seas. Ocean waters will be running 3-5 feet and 4-6 feet and rough around the coast at inlets and points of transition. Winds may pick up to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots during the day as well.  Seas may not completely settle for Tuesday, but should be back to normal by Wednesday and to finish the week. This is a rough forecast for Monday and Tuesday, as models do not agree and the NWS and BW have somewhat different solutions. Going off of buoy data and observations, as well as personal observations along the ocean this evening, seas do look to be running elevated and will continue through Monday and even into Tuesday. Surf and beach conditions will be Cautious on Monday, Cautious to OK on Tuesday and then OK to good for the rest of the week. Surf will be rough and elevated on Monday and even into Tuesday with 3-6 foot waves likely and possible and an elevated risk of rip currents. Surf will calm and settle into Wednesday, but could increase towards the end of the week around 2-4 feet. Be careful on Monday and Tuesday anywhere on the ocean fronts! Water temperatures are warming and will continue to warm this week. All waters are in the low to mid 60’s now with some shallower waters in the upper 60’s. Offshore waters will start seeing the Gulf Stream Currents moving in bringing waters in the upper 60’s and 70’s closer to shore. UV Index will vary from Moderate to Very High this week.

The high pressure system over the area will slowly move away from the region on Monday. A low will lift over Eastern Canada and an associated cold front will cross the region on Tuesday Night into Wednesday. This front should stall near or south of the region by late Wednesday and remain there for the rest of the week leading to an unsettled weather pattern throughout the week.

The NHC is watching a very large, broad, stationary area of low pressure that emerged from the Pacific from remnants of Hurricane Amanda. This area near the Yucatan Peninsula in the GOM has a very low chance of development at this time, but appropriately starts the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season off by making the maps!

The weekend looks to be a continuation of this week. Unsettled weather pattern with chances of showers and/or thunderstorms both days with highs in the 70’s and 80’s and lows in the 60’s. Right now the weekend is not a washout by far, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, at worst. Water, surf and beach conditions look good, however seas could be elevated again, this weekend.

This week is Rip Current Awareness Week. Rip Currents are very dangerous and a threat to anyone who ventures to the beach and does not know how to recognize them or what to do if caught in one. Please take a few minutes to review and share, especially since we all spend time in the ocean. There is also a link to signs of drowning and how the signs are much different than what many may expect.

Rip Current Safety

Signs of Drowning

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chanc
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to mid 80’s inland, low to mid 70’s along the coast
Low:   Upper 50’s to low 60’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:30am
Sunset: 8:19pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-60% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to mid 80’s
Low:   Low to mid 60’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:20pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day (lower chances at night)
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Upper 50’s to mid 60’s 
UV Index:  4-8/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:20pm


Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day (lower chances at night)
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s inland, low 70’s along the coast
Low:   Upper 50’s to mid 60’s
UV Index:  3-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:21pm
First Qtr: 4:40pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s inland, low to mid 70’s along the coast
Low:   Upper 50’s to mid 60’s
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:22pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  62°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming W after midnight, then N late
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming E
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  62°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for HAZARDOUS SEAS
Winds: SW 5 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 to 5 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for HAZARDOUS SEAS
Winds: S 10 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 to 5 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: E 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  60°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for HAZARDOUS SEAS
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 4 to 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for HAZARDOUS SEAS
Winds: SW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 4 to 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 3 to 3 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  69°F
Monday
Wind:  WSW 6-11 knots or less becoming SSW in the afternoon   
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SSW 8-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 7-10 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SSW 7-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SSW 6 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming W at 6 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SE 5-8 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NNW 6 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  61°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for HAZARDOUS SEAS
Winds: WSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 4 to 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY for HAZARDOUS SEAS
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 4 to 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet then 2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  60°F
Monday Morning
Winds: W 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 10 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface




20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Updated! Sorry, it is late. Water forecasts and models were tricky and conflicting for Monday...

Thanks,
Matt