Lots of weather to talk about through Friday Evening and water conditions will be unsettled as well. Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night will have rain with thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. Warren County has already had a tornado warned supercell this afternoon. Any storms will move in from the west/southwest. Heavy rains could cause flooding, especially flash flooding. Rain will continue into the overnight as severe weather chances decrease into Friday. Friday day could see upwards of 2 inches or more locally of rain causing flooding risks again! These rains are being enhanced by Hurricane Arthur’s tropical influences and interaction with the cold front. Arthur will remain well offshore and will not bring any direct effects to land. Rain and skies will start clearing later on Friday and into Friday Night. Friday will not be a total wash, depending on how early or late the rain clears out; afternoon to early evening looks like the end of the rain with clouds clearing out for the overnight. Saturday and Sunday will be dry, clear and sunny with some clouds moving in late Sunday. Weather looks fantastic for the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 70’s and 80’s with lower to moderate humidity through Saturday Night/Sunday before moderate to higher humidity moves back in. Overnight lows will be in the 50’s to 70’s depending on location.
Water conditions are a different story this weekend. Small Craft Advisories are already in effect through Friday Night at the earliest. High Surf Advisories have just been issued as well with dangerous rip currents. Offshore and far Offshore waters have Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings posted as well with 36+ foot waves in the center of this storm. Water conditions will deteriorate tonight through Friday before improving into Saturday and Sunday. Sunday afternoon conditions will begin to deteriorate again. Friday winds will be 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots inshore with 40-50 knots offshore. Seas will build to 10 feet inshore and 23 feet offshore with a long period swell of 15+ seconds. By Friday Night water conditions will improve as winds return to 5-15 knots, but ocean waters could still be in the 4-7 foot then 3-5 foot range most of the weekend with a longer period swell. By Sunday Afternoon winds will increase into the 15-20 knot range through Sunday Night and Monday, even in Tuesday. Seas will likely build 3-5 feet as well. Offshore water will be Cautious most of the weekend with seas to 5 feet continuing into Monday and Tuesday. This is the weekend to check the water conditions in person, however Friday looks to be the worst with Saturday and Sunday better. Bays and rivers look good overall for the weekend, as they will not feel the effects as much as the ocean. Water temperatures are all in the 70’s with some 80’s in bays and rivers.
Surf and beach conditions will be Cautious to Hazardous at best this weekend. The ocean will be very dangerous this weekend for both fishermen and swimmers. Friday will see dangerous and hazardous conditions with rough, high surf and dangerous, high risk of rip currents. Surf will be in the 4-9 foot range with 10 foot waves possible and even 15 feet across southern beaches on Friday. Saturday and Sunday will see a decrease in winds, but surf will remain in the 4-9/3-5 foot range improving to 2-4 late in the weekend. Rip currents will still be high bordering on moderate on Sunday. Be careful anywhere near the water this holiday weekend and Thursday into Thursday Night as severe thunderstorms are possible.
A cold front will slowly move into the area late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday. Hurricane Arthur located off the Southeast Coast will move northeast toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight before tracking out to sea Friday Afternoon into Saturday. High pressure will then build toward the area by Sunday before moving east of the region early next week. Another cold front will move toward the area during the middle of next week.
Next week looks mostly dry with some chances of shower and/or thunderstorms, mainly midweek. Highs will be in the 80’s with lows in the 60’s and slightly cooler temperatures along the coast. Water, surf and beach conditions look Cautious on Monday and Tuesday with gusty winds, higher seas, rougher and higher surf and Moderate to High Rip Currents. Conditions improve to Good by midweek.
In the tropics, only Arthur is active in the Atlantic and a Tropical Storm in the Eastern Pacific.
Have a great holiday weekend! Be careful if you venture out to the beach or on the water. Thanks for reading.
Friday - Independence DaySky: Mostly cloudy clearing to partly cloudy
Precipitation: 60%-80% chance of rain and/or thunderstorms during the day, clearing for late evening to overnight
Temperatures
High: Low 80’s
Low: Low to mid 60’s inland, mid to upper 60’s along the coast, mid 50’s across north
UV Index: 3-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 8:29pm
SaturdaySky: Sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 80’s inland, upper 70’s to low 80’s along the coast
Low: Low to mid 60’s inland, mid to upper 60’s along the coast, mid 50’s across north
UV Index: 8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 8:28pm
First Qtr: 8:00am
SundaySky: Sunny then mostly clear to partly cloudy
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High: Mid 80’s inland, mid 70’s to low 80’s along the coast
Low: Mid 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index: 8-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:28pm
Thursday Night Surface Analysis
Friday Surface Analysis 
Friday Night Surface Analysis
Saturday Surface Analysis
Sunday Surface Analysis
Friday – Tuesday Precipitation Total
Peak Wave Heights & Period from Arthur (Friday Evening/Night)
Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) ForecastsRaritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy HookWater Temperature: 77°F
Friday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 5-10 knots increasing to N 15-20 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less, Patchy fog in the morning, Visibility 1-3 nmSurf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, High Rip Current Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 2 feetSurf (Ocean): 4-9 feet, High Rip CurrentSaturdayWind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSaturday NightWind: W 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSundayWind: W 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less building to 2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feet, High-Moderate Rip CurrentSunday NightWind: SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feet, High-Moderate Rip CurrentSandy Hook (Bay) TidesSandy Hook Tides
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NYWater Temperature: 77°F
Friday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 5-10 knots increasing to N 15-20 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 3-5 feet, Patchy fog in the morning, Visibility 1-3 nmSurf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, High Rip Current Risk Friday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 5-8 feet
Surf (Ocean): 4-9 feet, High Rip Current RiskSaturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming W 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 4-7 feetSurf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSaturday NightWinds: W 5-10 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Surf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSundayWinds: W 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 3-5 feet
Surf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, Moderate-High Rip CurrentSunday NightWinds: SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 3-5 feet
Surf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, Moderate-High Rip CurrentConey Island, NY TidesConey Island Tides
Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat InletWater Temperature: 70°F
Friday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: N 5-10 knots increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: SE 4-6 feet at 11 seconds, Visibility 1-3 nmSurf (Ocean): 3-5 feet, High Rip Current Risk Friday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: N 20-25 knots diminishing to 15-20 knots late
Seas: SE 6-9 feet at 15 seconds
Surf (Ocean): 4-9 feet, High Rip Current RiskSaturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 4-7 feet subsiding to 3-5 feet in the afternoonSurf: 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSaturday NightWinds: W 10 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Surf: 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots
Seas: 3-5 feet
Surf: 2-4 feet, Moderate-High Rip Current
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15-20 knots
Seas: 3-5 feet
Surf: 2-4 feet, Moderate-High Rip CurrentManasquan Inlet TidesManasquan Inlet Tides
Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State ParkWater Temperature: 83°F
FridayWind: N 6-9 knots increasing to 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 0-1 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind: NNW 15-17 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 0-1 feetSaturdayWind: NNW 9-14 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Saturday NightWind: W 7 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
SundayWind: W 6-9 knots becoming SSW 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Sunday NightWind: SSW 14 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides Barnegat Bay Tides
Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)Water Temperature: 75°F
Friday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NE 5-10 knots increasing N 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas: 4-7 feet, Visibility 1-3 nmSurf (Ocean): 4-9 feet, High Rip Current Friday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: N 20-25 knots diminishing to 15-20 knots late
Seas: SE 5-8 feet at 15 seconds, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean): 7-14 feet, High Rip CurrentSaturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming NW 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 3-5 feetSurf: 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSaturday NightWinds: W 5-10 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Surf: 3-5 feet, High Rip CurrentSunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 5-10 knots increasing to SW 10-15 knots in the afternoon then 15-20 knots
Seas: 3-5 feet
Surf: 2-4 feet, Moderate-High Rip Current
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15-20 knots
Seas: 3-5 feet
Surf: 2-4 feet, Moderate-High Rip CurrentCape May (Ocean) TidesCape May Tides
Delaware BayWater Temperature: 80°F
Friday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: N 5-10 knots increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf: 1-3 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: N 15-20 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf: 1-3 feet
Saturday
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feetSaturday NightWind: W 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
SundayWind: W 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Sunday NightWind: SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) TidesDelaware River Tides
Offshore WatersMidshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)Water Temperature: 75°F
Friday
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAZARDOUS
Winds: NE 30-40 knots increasing to N 40-50 knots late
Seas: 16-23 feet
Friday Night
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAZARDOUS
Winds: N-NW 20-30 knots
Seas: 6-10 feetSaturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 10-20 knots becoming N-NW 5-15 knots
Seas: 5-9 feetSaturday NightWinds: W-SW 5-15 knots
Seas: 2-4 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W-SW 10-15 knots becoming SW 15-20 knots late
Seas: 2-4 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S-SW 20-25 knots
Seas: 4-7 feetSea Surface TemperaturesSurface
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day LoopNWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day LoopOcean CurrentsSurface
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution! 
*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
