NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition:Jun 30-Jul 4, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

An unsettled week with systems and boundaries moving through the region and area affecting weather and water conditions. There are chances of showers and/or thunderstorms all week. Monday will have the lowest chances. Chances then increase into Thursday and Friday. Monday through Wednesday will be scattered to widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms with sun and a mix of clouds throughout the day. Thursday will see increased chances of heavier, widespread rain and thunderstorms. Friday will have increased chances of widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. Both Thursday and Friday will see a mix of clouds and suns with more clouds both days. Temperatures will be in the 80’s with 90’s on Wednesday. Highs along the coast will be around 5 degrees cooler. Overnight lows will be in the 60’s and 70’s. Humidity will be high most of the week with moderate at times. Winds will be gusty, especially along the coast on Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system off the Southeast Coast has the potential to strengthen into a tropical system this week, moving northeast and bringing affects to the area. This system started over land from stalled out frontal boundaries and drifted east over water. Currently, this system is building with both convection (thunderstorms) and rotation. Conditions are favorable in this area for organization into a tropical system. Right now, water conditions will be affected the most, based upon current modeling of intensity and track. This would bring high seas with a long swell and gusty, gale force winds through the marine and coastal areas on Friday and Saturday. There is still a lot of room for change. Intensity, interaction with a frontal boundary ultimately affecting track and timing will all change over the next couple of days. At this point, being aware that there is a risk of some type of coastal storm (likely tropical) is possible in the next 4-7 days. Water conditions Inshore will be good this week, with borderline conditions on Monday and Tuesday, even into Wednesday with gusty winds to 20 knots and seas 3-5 feet, averaging closer to 4 most of the time. Offshore water conditions will be Cautious on Tuesday and Wednesday. Water conditions Friday and Saturday could be Cautious to Hazardous, depending on this system off of the Florida/Georgia/South Carolina Coasts. Surf and beach conditions will be good with Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents, which could increase to Moderate to High for the end of the week into the weekend. Gusty winds are likely Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday from passing systems and then possibly for the end of the week depending on the potential system in the Southeast. An approaching coastal system and holiday weekend could be dangerous for anyone venturing out on the water or to the beach. Be alert to any of these potential hazards this coming holiday weekend. Just because skies are clear and free of storms, does not mean water conditions cannot be hazardous from offshore storms. Water temperatures are steady in the 70’s and 80’s. UV Index will be mostly Very High around 8-9/15 with occasionally Moderate Indices with cloud cover.

High pressure is located just offshore Sunday Night. This high pressure system will continue to move east on Monday. A cold front located over the Great Lakes on Tuesday will move into the region on late Wednesday becoming a trough. A secondary cold front will follow on Thursday and Friday. An area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast will remain almost stationary in that area before moving northeast and interacting with the frontal boundary offshore on Friday and Saturday. Another high pressure system will move toward the area on Sunday.

Provided there is no direct land effects from the system in the Southeast, the weekend looks dry with highs in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s and lows in the 60’s. If the system tracks closer to land, clouds and even rain and thunderstorm chances will increase. Water, surf and beach conditions look Cautious to Hazardous on Saturday and likely Sunday. Depending on track and intensity of the system, Sunday could go either ways.

I will re-evaluate the Holiday Weekend Outlook by Wednesday and then on Thursday for any changes. Any updates or changes for the potential of a tropical or coastal storm will be updated as necessary to keep everyone informed.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!    

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, upper 70’s to low 80’s along the coast
Low:   Upper 60’s with low 60’s across the north
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, low to mid 80’s along the coast
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-50% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low 90’s inland, mid 80’s along the coast
Low:   Low to mid 70’s  
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:32am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-60% chance of rain and/or thunderstsorms
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Mid 60’s to Mid 70’s
UV Index:  4-9/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:32am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Friday - Independence Day
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Low 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Atlantic Tropical View



Modeled Tracks




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:   S 5 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:    1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then  1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                          



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  69°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  80°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SSW 8-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 9-12 knots increasing to 12-15 knots with gusts to 21 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 10-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 10-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SSW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 8-12 knots becoming ENE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SSW 9-12 knots decreasing to 6-9 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet, then 2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  77°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

On top of the rest of the crazy weather this week (tropical weather, heat wave, high humidity, etc...) there is the potential for strong to severe weather over the rest of the week.

Today/Tuesday, strong to isolated severe isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly scattered later this afternoon into the evening and overnight. Areas west of NJ have a much higher risk of severe weather.

Wednesday will bring a Slight Risk to most of the state with heavy rains, dangerous lightning damaging winds, hail and tornadoes are always possible with severe thunderstorms. Storms will still be scattered to widely scattered and late afternoon/evening into the overnight.

Thursday into Friday will bring chances again of strong to severe storms as Arthur moves into the region on Friday. This will be more widely scattered to widespread.

Hot again tomorrow with 90's and heat indices into the 100's with high humidity as high pressure off the coast keeps that southerly flow and pumps that hot humid air into the region.

Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisories are in effect through midnight from Sandy to Manasquan Inlet and out to Fire Island Inlet (Long Island). Winds 10-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots are possible and seas 2-4 feet.

Heat Advisories have also been issued for Wednesday from 12PM-8PM for Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Gloucester, Camden, Burlington & Ocean Counties!

Keep cool...

[Pfishingruven]

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather today and strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. A Watch will be issued at some point this afternoon. Storms are already firing to the west and northwest of the state with many Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and even a Tornado Warning or two.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. Storms will likely move in as multicells/squall lines, however supercells are also possible. With high temperatures today, high dew points (humidity) and no cloud cover, instability is high today.

Be alert for quickly changing conditions and keep an ear to the weather radios and eye to the sky!

Any storms that move over coastal waters will bring higher than normal winds and seas.

Be safe!!

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters until 9 PM. Severe Thunderstorm Watches are also issued for neighboring states.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #386

[Pfishingruven]

Again, there is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today into tonight and through the overnight. In addition to storms, heavy rain will move in later today as well. Storms are already firing in Western PA and will move into the area later today from the west/southwest. Storms could be strong to severe with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes.

Flash Flooding is also possible with the storms and rain and Flash Flood Watches have been posted statewide.

Be alert again today! Watches are likely at some point this afternoon/evening.

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters until 10PM

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #391