Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Oct 13-17, 2014  (Read 1805 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A very unsettled week for both weather and water conditions. Clouds will continue as chances of showers continue into Monday Night. Fog will develop late tonight and into Tuesday Morning. Tuesday will continue with clouds and rain chances with fog again late Tuesday and into early Wednesday. Wednesday will be cloudy with continued chances of showers with fog again. Thursday, again clouds and rain chances. Friday should see partly to mostly sunny skies with less chances of rain, beginning to clear out for Friday Night. Highs will be in the 60’s to 80’s with 80’s on Tuesday and Wednesday as a warm front lifts north. This will bring moderate to high humidity as well. The rest of the week will be moderate humidity. Overnight lows will be in the 50’s and 60’s. These are Summer overnight lows, not mid October temperatures. There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday into Thursday. Water conditions will be borderline to cautious the rest of the week, with some better windows, especially in rivers and bays. Fog will be a big issue lowering visibility to less than 1 nm at times.  Winds will be gusty and seas will build to 8+ feet this week. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious with gusty winds, rough surf and increased waves to 10 feet! Rip Current Risk will be High to Moderate. Water temperatures are steady in the low to upper 60’s. UV Index is Low to Moderate.

A warm front from Cape May to the Central Carolina will continue to lift northward Tuesday morning before dissipating. High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic through Wednesday while low pressure tracks slowly northeastward cross the Midwest.  An associated cold front will move through the area on Wednesday Night into Thursday. High pressure then briefly builds in from the Gulf Coast States Friday. Another cold front from the Northwest will move in this weekend.

The weekend looks more settled and dry with highs in the 60’s and lows in the 40’s and 50’s. There is a chance of showers, if the cold front makes it for the weekend. Water, surf and beach conditions will be borderline to cautious right now at this point. A lot depends on what moves when, this week and there is a lot happening, so the weekend is a far off call still.

The Atlantic Tropics are active. Extra Tropical Storm Fay is out to sea and will remain out there. Hurricane Gonzalo is increasing in strength and affecting Puerto Rico currently. This should also stay south and east of Bermuda and out to sea. There is another area of invest that has come off of Africa that is still being watched.

Have a great week, thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy, Patchy Fog overnight/morning hours
Precipitation:  20%-30% chance of showers
Temperatures
High:    Low to upper 60’s
Low:     Upper 50’s to low 60’s with low 50’s across the north
UV Index:
Sunrise: 7:04am
Sunset: 6:21pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy, Patchy fog in the early morning and late overnight
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers all day (highest chances are across northern/northwester NJ)
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Low to mid 60’s
UV Index:  3-4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 6:20pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy to cloudy, Patchy fog in the early morning and late night
Precipitation:  20%-30% chance of showers during the day, 60% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Upper 50’s to low 60’s
UV Index:  1-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 6:18pm
Last Qtr: 3:13pm


Thursday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-60% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Mid 50’s to low 60’s
UV Index:  3-4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 6:17pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Mid 50’s inland, low 60’s along the coast, low 50’s across northern areas
UV Index:  4-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 6:15pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Wednesday/Thursday Convective Outlook




Atlantic Tropics



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  61°F
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SE 10-15 with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Tuesday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot  increasing to 2 feet in the afternoon, Patchy fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Fog after midnight, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet

Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 N knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  61°F
Monday Night
Winds: S 10-15 knots
Seas:   SE 3-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: W 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  64°F
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:   SE 3-4 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSE 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: W 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  61°F
Monday Night
Wind:  S 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SSE 9-14 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SSE 13 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSE 12-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Wednesday Night
Wind:  SSE 14 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 13 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SSW 8-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 8-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  67°F
Monday Night
Winds: S 10-15 knots
Seas:  SE 3-4 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet

Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  5-9 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 14 seconds
Surf:  5-9 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  64°F-68°F
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet

Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  66°F
Monday Night
Winds: S 10-15 knots
Seas:  SE 3-5 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT AD VISORY
Winds: S 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  SSE 9 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 14 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 13 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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  • Moderator
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  • Posts: 10298
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Re: Possible Strong to Severe Weather Wednesday
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 02:31:23 PM »
With the higher than normal temperatures and humidities meeting the approaching seasonal cold front, there is potential for strong to severe weather. Rain and possible thunderstorms will continue to move in through the afternoon, evening and well into the overnight continuing into Thursday. Rain could be heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms capable of dangerous lightning, damaging winds and even a tornado threat.

Be aware of changing weather conditions and be safe!





 

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