NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition:Jan 31-Feb 1,2015

[Pfishingruven]

A clear weekend with cold temperatures, but mostly poor water conditions. The bulk of the weekend will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday Night will see an increase in clouds with a chance of snow into Monday. Highs for Saturday will only be in the 20’s with highs on Sunday into the 30’s. Overnight lows will be cold in the single digits to 20’s. Saturday will be windy all day and winds will pick up again into Sunday Night. Sunday Night into Monday snow could be substantial and looks like a Monday Morning storm at this point. Highest accumulations, if any, will be higher for the Southern half of the State. Water conditions will be hazardous on Saturday with winds over 30 knots and seas 5-10 feet with Gale Warnings. Sunday will see gusty winds earlier with cautious conditions becoming borderline later only to deteriorate into Monday. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious on Saturday with rougher and higher surf to 7 feet and gale force winds. Sunday surf conditions will be ok to good with lower wave heights and less winds. Water temperatures have dropped a couple to a few degrees. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 1-3/15.

A frontal system will move across the area Thursday Night as low pressure moves into New England, then slowly drifts into the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. High pressure builds to the south through the weekend, followed by another frontal boundary on Sunday. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along this boundary and pass just to the south on Monday and affect the area. High pressure builds in again for Monday Night into Tuesday. Another frontal boundary is expected Wednesday into Wednesday Night.

Next week has the potential for snow on Monday and Wednesday Night otherwise, it will be clear. Cold temperatures will continue with teens, 20’s and 30’s and overnight lows in the single digits, teens and 20’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be mixed, but mostly on the side of cautious to hazardous.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading! More to follow on the Sunday Night/Monday Snow as updates develop.

Saturday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:     Low to upper 20’s
Low:     Mid to upper teens inland, low to mid 20’s along the coast, low teens northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 5:13pm


Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 50%-60% chance of snow at night
Temperatures
High:     Mid 30’s to upper 30’s with upper 20’s northern areas
Low:     Low to mid teens inland, upper teens to mid 20’s along the coast, mid single digits northern areas
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 5:14pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  34°F
Saturday
HAZARDOUS
Gale Warning
Wind:  NW 25-30 knots diminishing to 20-25 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 10 knots becoming NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet after midnight, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  34°F
Saturday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 27 to 37 knots
Seas:  WNW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Saturday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WNW 24 to 33 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  W 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  W 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  39°F
Saturday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 26 to 36 knots
Seas: N 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Saturday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WNW 23 to 32 knots
Seas:  N 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  W 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  34°F
Saturday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  WNW 19-23 knots with gusts to 36 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 10-14 knots with gusts to 21 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 7-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  NW 5-8 knots becoming NNE 8-11 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  40°F
Saturday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 29 to 39 knots
Seas:  NW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Saturday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  NW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  WNW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  WNW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  34°F-36°F
Saturday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots diminishing 15-20 knots late with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, freezing spray
Surf:  2-4 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, freezing spray
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet, light freezing spray
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  46°F
Saturday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 32 to 43 knots
Seas:  NW 11 feet at 7 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WNW 29 to 40 knots
Seas:  NW 10 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  WNW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  W 4 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest from the NWS's. This is an early forecast and will change. There is a lot of uncertainty still and a high potential for the forecast to bust one way or another. This update is for those that like to follow the progression or changes. This is not a finalized forecast or final call for snow on Sunday/Monday.

Moisture coming out of Mexico and the Southern/Southwestern US will converge into a low pressure system over Kansas/Missouri on Sunday Morning. From here it will track east/northeast before moving into the region on Sunday Night. This track is very uncertain right now, as can be seen from the forecast map with the modeled positions overlayed. Each symbol is a different model and each model is very widespread. There is in some places over a 500 mile spread. The track is very important with this storm. A more northern track brings more snow from south to north and across the NYC Area. Areas in central and southern NJ would receive less snow, a mix and even a changeover to rain. A more southern track would bring snow much farther south, into Virginia and bring the greatest axis of snowfall to Central and Southern NJ with less snow in Northern NJ and NYC. With the last storm, the difference between 5 inches and 2 feet was less than 50 miles. While, this storm is not looking at snowfall potential of this magnitude, 50-100 miles could greatly change the outcome.

For this system, the models favored a southern track for the first couple of days. Since last night the track has turned to a more northern track and that trend has continued to this point with most of the models agreeing on north vs. south. Some of the models do not go as far north and others do not go as far south. So, for now, forecasts are going with a middle of the road track favoring more to the north. The track is a big factor, as will be the influence of high pressure to the north; how strong does it remain, how much does it affect this storm, could it shut down the northern part of the storm? Also, determining when and where mixing or changeovers take place will determine how much snow falls. So, this is an in progress forecast and will be updated some point tomorrow.

Be safe and have a great weekend!

NWS PHI Briefing

Storm Track




Snowfall Total Forecasts

[Pfishingruven]

So, more certainty today and everything points towards a northern. In fact, the models are now uncertain how far north this system will go. The Low is forecast to cut right across the southern part of the state. Right now, Northern NJ is in the heaviest axis of snow. 10-14 inches are top snowfall totals being forecast right now. South of I-95, is a completely different story, with a max of 0-3 inches being forecast. This area will see a mess, including some snow, mixed wintry precip, changes over to rain and even freezing rain/ice. Areas north of I-95 could see this to a degree as well, especially areas with the lower snowfall totals and icing is being forecast for a bulk of the state. The bulk of this system will come late Sunday Night into Monday with snow possible during the day on Sunday and lingering into Monday Night. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Northern NJ Counties.

I will say that based on the minimum probability map, there is a huge bust potential, as NWS PHI shows almost no accumulation across much of the state. Opposite to that, the maximum snowfall totals don't go up much for northern areas (if you are getting 14 inches and max is 18, what's another 4 inches at that point), however areas forecast with nothing or less than an inch could see upwards of 4 inches in a worst case scenario. That is a big difference and something to keep in mind. Again, this is only the difference of 50-100 miles, which is just a small change when talking atmospheric dynamics. With this being said, this forecast looks well handled by the weather agencies, but the models have not handled the winter very well. There were also upgrades to the American Models (GFS-Global Forecasting System, which is written here in the US), so there is a bit of a learning curve to figure out how it is computing and interpreting the data.

Updates with major changes. Northern NJ can't get a break this Winter and the snow lovers in the South can't catch one, either.

Be safe!

NWS PHI Winter Weather

NWS NYC Winter Weather

NWS PHI Briefing #2

Storm Track




Snowfall Total Forecasts




Ice Total Forecasts



Snowfall Minimums




Snowfall Maximums