Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Feb 7-8, 2015  (Read 2948 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Wintry weather this weekend with good water conditions inshore. Saturday and Sunday will have chances of wintry precipitation ranging from snow to a mix and even rain for much of the state. Saturday will be more showers than anything accumulating and Sunday could see more accumulation, mainly for Northern NJ. Other areas will see a mix to rain mess. There is the potential for big snows across very Northern NJ, but the models have trended towards a storm going even farther north and only bringing a few inches over Sunday and Monday. This will be the system to watch. Highs will be in the 20’s and 30’s with overnight lows in the 20’s and 30’s as well. Water conditions will be good inshore. Saturday could be more on the borderline side and Sunday will be good. Saturday’s conditions will be recovering from the full week of gale winds and then late Sunday could see an increase in winds and seas. Offshore waters will be cautious on Saturday and borderline to good on Sunday. Surf and beach conditions look good all weekend. Water temperatures are steady in the 30’s and 40’s. UV Index will be Low-Moderate at 0-3/15.

High pressure will build to the south Thursday Night into Friday. A frontal boundary will move across the area Saturday into Saturday Night and then stall near or just south of the area Sunday into Monday. An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast around Monday. This low will track to the east through Tuesday as high pressure builds to the west. This high may briefly affect the area Wednesday before another front moves toward the are late Wednesday into Thursday.

Next week starts out with Wintry Precipitation that will continue from Sunday and could linger into Tuesday. Right now, snow accumulations look to be isolated to Northern NJ, but this could drastically change over the next few days. Tuesday will be a transition day and then the remainder of the week looks to be mostly dry. Highs will be in the 20’s to 30’s with overnight lows in the teens to 20’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be mixed, Monday good, Tuesday and Wednesday even into Thursday will be cautious improving into Friday.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!
Saturday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of snow/wintry mix/rain (chances increase south to north)
Temperatures
High:     Low to mid 40’s inland and along the coast, mid 30’s northern areas
Low:     Upper 20’s to low 30’s inland, low to mid 30’s along the coast, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:59am
Sunset: 5:21pm


Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-70% chance of snow/wintry mix/rain all day (chances increase south to north)
Temperatures
High:     Low to mid 40’s inland and along the coast, low 30’s northern areas
Low:     Upper 20’s to low 30’s inland, low to upper 30’s along the coast, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:58am
Sunset: 5:23pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Storm Track




Snowfall Forecast Totals Saturday - Sunday




Maximum Snowfall





Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  33°F
Saturday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):   1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  33°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: W 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: E 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  38°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: S 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  34°F
Saturday
Wind:  WSW 5-8 knots becoming SW 9-12 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SW 5-8 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SE 6-9 knots becoming ENE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  NE 7-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  38°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  33°F
Saturday
Wind:  SW 5 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots late morning/afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  44°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  W 4 feet at 5 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  WSW 4 feet at 4 seconds

Sunday Morning
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSW 3 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)








Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!



*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Sunday - Monday Winter Storm
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2015, 05:37:24 PM »
Preliminary forecasts are out for the system that will affect the area on Sunday/Sunday Night into Monday. This looks to be a snow event for Northern NJ and a mix of rain, wintry precipitation and even freezing rain for the rest of the state. Areas south of the Raritan will have less than an inch of accumulating snow and precipitation will change from snow to rain to a mix and back. Areas north of the Raritan will see a greater accumulation of snow, but highest totals will remain to the very north and northwest parts of the state. The models have been very consistent with this northern track even 5 days out! Freezing rain/icing could be a problem as well with up to 0.2 inches of accretion/accumulation. Timing will begin as early as Sunday with precipitation picking up by Sunday Night into Monday. Monday commutes will both be affected, especially if icing occurs!

Be safe! Updates to follow as necessary.

NWS PHI Briefing

Storm Track




Snowfall Forecast Totals




Ice Forecast Totals



Snowfall Maximums




Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Sunday Update on Sunday Night - Monday Snow
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2015, 12:11:37 PM »
There are not many changes. The models keep trending on a more northeasterly track, so the forecasts have changed a bit for northern NJ in regards to snow totals. The forecast is pretty solid and has been, even at around 5 days out. Regardless, of the slight changes in the track, the majority of snow will fall for Northern and Northwestern NJ. Other areas will see a mix of snow/mix/rain/freezing rain/ice. The less snow, the more mix or rain. Freezing rain and ice forecasts have expanded. Again, even if you are not in the forecast area for icing, it is still a possibility as cold and warm air will be mixing on either sector of the low. Temperatures will decrease from south to north and some areas south of the Raritan may never see below freezing surface temperatures, but could still see snow/mix precipitation and changeovers between rain and wintry precipitation due to cold air aloft. Timing is still for Sunday Night to begin, Monday Morning and Monday Day continuing into Monday Night before coming to an end. 

Be safe! Unless there are major changes, this will be the last update.

NWS PHI Briefing

Storm Track




Snowfall Forecast Totals




Ice Forecast Totals




Snowfall Maximums



 

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