Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Feb 9-13, 2015  (Read 4178 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A mixed week with weather, but mostly cautious to hazardous water conditions. Sunday Night into Monday will bring a system that brings rain to snow across the state. A mix of wintry precipitation with changeovers to rain are possible for most of the state. Areas in Northern and Northwestern NJ will have the most accumulation of snow, but may see a mix at times. Freezing rain and icing is likely as well, so use caution on surfaces and roadways. The bulk of the storm will come on Monday Morning and Afternoon, but the system will start into Sunday Night and could linger into Monday Night. For Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday conditions will be mostly dry and clearer, however there is still a chance of scattered snow showers/mixed wintry precipitation. Friday looks to be clear and dry. Highs will be mostly in the 30’s, however highs will drop into the 20’s and 30’s on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 20’s and 30’s until Thursday Night when temperatures will drop into the single digits and teens and then into the negatives, single digits and lower teens on Friday Night as Arctic air moves in with the front. Water conditions will be mostly cautious to hazardous this week. Wednesday conditions could improve, however seas will still be 5+ feet. Thursday looks to see the best conditions, however winds will still push 15-20 knots. Friday will see Gale Warnings and high seas. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious, even hazardous at times. Wednesday and Thursday will be the least windy, however high and rough surf will continue. Surf heights to 8+ feet are possible. Water temperatures are a few degrees colder in the 30’s and 40’s. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 0-3/15.

A cold front will slowly drop southward through the area on Sunday Night through late Monday. An area of low pressure will track along the front, moving toward the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday and moving off to the south and east of the area on Tuesday. Another low pressure system will arrive on Thursday followed by an Arctic front. Arctic high pressure will then build into the area for Friday and Saturday.  A clipper type system will move through the region late Saturday into Sunday, followed by cold high pressure for early in the week.

The weekend will be a mix, with the potential of snow Saturday Night and Sunday, that needs to be watched. Highs will continue in the 20’s and 30’s with lows in the teens to 20’s and even some 30’s along the coast. The potential clipper system looks to be fast moving, but it is too early to call anything at this point. Water, surf and beach conditions look good to ok for Saturday and then cautious on Sunday.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Wintry precipitation, mix, rain
Temperatures
High:    Mid to upper 30’s inland, low 40’s along the coast, mid 20’s northern areas
Low:   Mid 20’s inland, upper 20’s to low 30’s along the coast, low to mid 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:57am
Sunset: 5:24pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy with decreasing clouds becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of scattered wintry precipitation showers
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 30’s
Low:   Low to mid 20’s inland, mid 20’s to low 30’s along the coast, low teens northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:56am
Sunset: 5:25pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-30% chance of snow showers at night mainly across northern areas
Temperatures
High:    Low to upper 30’s
Low:   Mid to upper 20’s inland, upper 20’s to low 30’s along the coast, upper teens northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:55am
Sunset: 5:26pm
Last Qtr: 10:51pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of snow showers during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 30’s
Low:   Upper single digits inland, low to mid teens along the coast, low single digits northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:54am
Sunset: 5:27pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low teens to low 20’s
Low:   Mid single digits inland, low to mid teens along the coast, mid negative single digits (-5) areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:52am
Sunset: 5:29pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  33°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet

Wednesday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming W 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet


Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                          



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  33°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet

Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 26 to 35 knots
Seas:  WNW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet


Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  6-7 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  6-7 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-7 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-7 feet

Thursday Morning
Winds: S 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 27 to 37 knots
Seas:  NNW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  35°F
Monday
Wind:  ENE 13-16 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NNE 17-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 18-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 17 knots with gusts to 26 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 13-16 knots decreasing 8-11 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Wednesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming W 7-12 knots in the morning
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-18 knots increasing to 21-24 knots after midnight with gusts to 32 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot


Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 23 to 32 knots
Seas:  ENE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  6-8 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  E 8 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  6-8 feet

Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-8 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  6-8 feet

Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  NW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  NW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet


Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  34°F-36°F
Monday
Wind:  E 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Areas of fog
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Areas of fog
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Wednesday
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming NE 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:   1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Winds:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots increasing to 25-30 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-5 feet, Light freezing spray
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 25-30 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet

Friday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, subsiding to 2-3 feet after midnight, Freezing spray
Surf:  2-4 feet, then 1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  44°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 8 seconds

Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  ENE 10 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 24 to 32 knots
Seas:  ENE 10 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  E 11 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  E 11 feet at 10 seconds

Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 11 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 11 seconds
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 31 to 42 knots
Seas:  NW 10 feet at 7 seconds

Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 26 to 36 knots
Seas:  NW 9 feet at 7 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
« Last Edit: February 08, 2015, 07:32:28 PM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Late Wednesday - Thursday Snow
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2015, 05:40:46 PM »
The Wednesday-Thursday snow event I referenced is looking like a small snow event again, at this point. Anywhere from less than an inch with mixed precipitation to 2-3 inches across Northwestern and Northern NJ is possible. This will be spread out from snow showers starting late Wednesday and run into Thursday Day. The two low pressure systems are staying fairly well to the north and well offshore with the coastal low.

I am watching a potential winter storm/coastal storm for this weekend as well as some frigid air moving into the region!

Thanks!

Storm Track




Snowfall Forecast Totals




Snowfall Maximums


« Last Edit: February 10, 2015, 05:42:10 PM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NWS PHI Briefing for Upcoming Snow/Winter Weather
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2015, 05:45:45 PM »

 

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