Wednesday Night - Thursday Winter Storm 3/4-3/5 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A Winter Storm will affect the state late Wednesday Night into Thursday with the bulk of snow falling in the early morning to morning hours on Thursday. Snow will continue throughout Thursday, ending sometime before 7 PM or so. What initially looked like a Southern US Storm, only glancing NJ, has instead tracked farther north and encompassed much of the state in a significant to major storm. Southern NJ could see its biggest snowfalls with this system bringing anywhere from 6-10 inches or more of snow. Northern NJ could also see anywhere from 4-8 inches.

As low pressure track northeast out of the Southeast and across the Carolina's a very wet system will start off as rain tonight, changing over to mix around midnight and then all snow by around 2 AM. The key factors with this system will be the timing off cold air returning to the Mid Atlantic. Highs will range from the 40's to low 50's today across the state, so if the models are correct, cold air and near freezing temperatures should return just around midnight. Freezing temperatures will then happen a couple hours after that. The cold air will be the main factor in how much snow accumulates. Earlier cold, more snow, later cold air, less snow. Track and intensity will play a part as well, although the track looks mostly confident and intensity will only bring banding or more snow to some areas where those bands set up. This is not a strong storm in terms of central pressure. Forecasts are only calling for 1012-1015 mb, however over-performance could bring that extra snow.

Water conditions will be Hazardous as well with gusty winds to 30 knots and seas 6+ feet.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all counties including Hunterdon, Somerset, Union and Hudson Counties and south. All counties north have been issued Winter Storm Watches. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all coastal ocean waters.

Be safe! Any updates to follow...

NWS PHI Briefing

NWS NYC Briefing

Storm Track




Snowfall Forecast Totals




Snow Maximums




Snow Minimums

[Hotrod]

I love how they do Mins Now..  so we are getting 2-12 Inches

[Reel McCoy]

Thanks, Matt.       

[Kenny]

I love how they do Mins Now..  so we are getting 2-12 Inches

I know right ?   None to 30 " expected 

[Pfishingruven]

I love how they do Mins Now..  so we are getting 2-12 Inches

With the way the weather models have performed this Winter 0-20 is a good range .

Minimums and Maximums have always been around, but are new this year for public forecasts. Since snow forecasting is really all based on probability from the weather models, they are showing 10% and 90% probabilities. This is an effort to show the uncertainty with the forecasts. All levels of probability are available at the Weather Prediction Center from 5%-95%. The official snowfall forecasts are still what is predicted by the meteorologist using the various models at each local NWS office. The probabilities of snow are forecasts put together by meteorologists at the Weather Prediction Center and again use all of the models. They are guidance for the local offices.

Clearly, with such a high rate of busted or poor winter forecasts, the models are not performing well. There are many factors, with money the main one! Unfortunately, Winter Storms do not get the attention, funding or priority that events such as hurricanes or tornadoes receive.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks, Matt.       

YW

[Pfishingruven]

Totals have come down a couple of inches across Central and Southern Areas

[BigAl13]

until 6 pm 

[IrishAyes]

Irish Ayes weather forecast board.