NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Aug 8-9, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

Another unsettled weekend with questionable weather conditions and cautious to hazardous water conditions. A low pressure system forming on a stalled out front will move north/northeast along the coast for Friday and Saturday. Called a Nor’Easter by some outlets, it is essentially a moderate low pressure system out at sea. I, personally, wouldn’t reach that far and put a label on it, but it will be capable of rain and thunderstorms, higher tides and even some minor coastal flooding, as well as rough surf, gusting winds and high seas. Depending on the track, as always, will depend on the effects. As it is forecast now, the low will stay far enough south and east to keep most of the rain off the coast, except for southern parts of the state, and most of the effects to the southern half of the state and to coastal areas. Tides will run around a foot above normal up through Atlantic City or so, with Sandy Hook seeing only a minor increase. This increase across southern areas could bring some minor coastal flooding, especially to those low lying areas and areas prone to tidal flooding. Coastal areas, including tidal rivers, bays and ocean waters will see gusty winds to 30+ knots, seas to 8 feet, and rough surf to 6+ feet with a high risk for rip currents. A change in track to the north and west will bring greater effects and south and east less effects. As for weather, right now, most areas will be dry on Saturday and Sunday. There is a chance of some showers coming from the south or east Saturday, but should be limited to the southern half, even southern coastal areas. Highs will be in the low to mid 80’s with overnight lows in the upper 50’s and 60’s on Saturday and then 60’s and 70’s on Sunday Night. Humidity will be moderate to a bit higher. Drier air will be present, compared to the week. Water conditions will be a blow out this weekend with cautious to hazardous conditions at best for all locations. Raritan Bay could see less winds and therefore seas on Sunday, however, all other locations will see winds to 30 knots on Saturday and 20-25 knots on Sunday with seas to 8+ feet on the ocean and 2-4 feet on the bays. These seas look to linger into next week, slowly settling by midweek. Surf and beach conditions will be cautious for surf. Winds will be gusty 20-30 knots with higher than normal tides, rough surf to 6+ feet and dangerous rip currents likely, with Moderate to High Rip Current Risks. While weather conditions won’t be terrible, minus the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms, the water will be dangerous. It is important to follow all posted signs and flags by beach lifeguards and to be very careful if waters are open to swimming. Water temperatures have remained the same or have cooler by a degree or two. UV Index will be High to Very High at 7-8/15.

An area of low pressure will develop along a stalled front to the south, then slowly move off of the North Carolina Coast late Friday into Saturday. The low is then forecast to move northward over the Atlantic, while high pressure builds in for the weekend. Another cold front is expected to cross the area early next week.

Next week will start off with chances of showers and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. This should clear out for the rest of the week. Highs will continue in the 80’s with overnight lows in the 60’s with some 70’s possible at the shore and some upper 50’s possible across some northern areas. Humidity will be mainly moderate with some low and high points as well, however, much drier, overall, than last week. Water, surf and beach conditions will be cautious through Tuesday and then borderline to cautious for the rest of the week. Winds will be mostly subsided, but waters will not have settled from the low for much of the week. Hopefully, they clear up sooner than later and forecasts will come into better alignment as this system moves this weekend. Don’t discredit next week yet, at this point in time. 

The Atlantic Tropics are quiet again.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Saturday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance, 50%-->20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across southern areas all day
Temperatures
High:     Low to mid 80’s
Low:     Low 60’s inland, mid 60’s at the shore, upper 50’s across northern areas
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:01am
Sunset: 8:03pm


Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:     Low to mid 80’s
Low:     Mid 60’s inland, upper 60’s to low 70’s at the shore, low 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:02am
Sunset: 8:02pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Tide/Surge Forecasts





Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  77°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):   3-5 feet
Sunday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  77°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: NNE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  76°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: NNE 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  76°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 18 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 16-18 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 16 knots with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  79°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  ENE 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NE 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  73°F-76°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  ENE 6 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  ENE 7 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  ENE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)




Ocean Currents

Surface




20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
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*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)