Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Aug 17-21, 2015  (Read 2365 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Hot and humid with very mixed weather and water conditions! Showers and thunderstorms will be possible all week, mainly isolated to scattered with some more widely scattered to organized storms on Thursday. Some storms could be strong to severe at times. High temperatures will start off in the upper 80’s to even upper 90’s with the shore being in the low to mid 80’s. By the end of the week, highs will be down into the low to mid 80’s with upper 70’s to low 80’s at the shore. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s with some lower 60’s across northern areas. By the end of the week these will drop down into the low to upper 60’s. Humidity will be high to start with dew points in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s, but by the end of the week will only be moderate to high with dew points in the lower to mid 60’s. Water conditions will be mostly borderline with some cautious conditions also on the ocean. Overall, sustained winds will be below 20 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas will be the biggest issue at 2-4 feet on average with days to 3-4+ feet. Bays and rivers will be less, but could still sea 2-3 feet on the Raritan and Delaware Bays. While not the best conditions, water conditions will be fine for some and could be good for certain locations and times. Checking conditions daily and knowing that conditions could deteriorate will be important this week. Surf and beach conditions will be mainly good to ok. Some areas could see winds to 20 knots and surf could build to 2-4 feet. On average, surf heights will be 1-3 feet with a Low Risk of rip currents, however a Moderate Risk is possible. Water temperatures are warmer by a few degrees for all waters except surf temperatures. Waters are in the 70’s with surf temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. UV Index will be Low to Very High at 3-9/15.

A large low pressure system will slowly move east over the North Central US through the week. The associated cold front should pass through the region Thursday Night into Friday. Behind the front, a high pressure system will start building over the Northeast on the weekend.

The weekend looks to be mostly dry and a little cooler than most of the week. Highs will be in the 70’s and 80’s with overnight lows in the 60’s. Humidity will be moderate. Water, surf and beach conditions will be mostly good. Sunday, conditions could deteriorate by Sunday Afternoon with gusty winds and building seas, but may possibly hold out until Sunday Night.

Invest 96L in the Atlantics is off the coast of Africa. There are several systems emerging from mainland Africa and one in particular is being watched with a 60% chance of development over the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of development in the next 5 days. The system will also be moving over waters with favorable conditions for development and/or strengthening. It is too early to really determine a track or strength, so it will definitely be worth watching anywhere in the Caribbean, Gulf States or East Coast.

Have a great week and thanks for reading! Sorry, the full outlook was delayed.

Monday
Sky:   Partly sunny to partly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day
Temperatures
High:    Mid 80’s to upper 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70’s
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:09am
Sunset: 7:52pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to mid 90’s inland, low to mid 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low 70’s with mid to upper 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:10am
Sunset: 7:50pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, low to mid 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low to mid 70’s with upper 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 6:11am
Sunset: 7:49pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s
Low:   Low to mid 70’s with mid to upper 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  3-6/15 (Low-High)
Sunrise: 6:12am
Sunset: 7:48pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to mid 80’s
Low:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s with low 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  6-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:13am
Sunset: 7:46pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Tuesday & Wednesday Severe Weather Risks





Atlantic Tropics




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  80°F
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  80°F
Monday Night
Winds: S 15-20 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: ESE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Night
Winds: S 15-20 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  E 2-4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3  feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Night
Wind:  SSW 7-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 6-11 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 7-11 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 6-9 knots becoming SSE 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SSE 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SSE 10-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SSE 8-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SSE 6 knots becoming
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  78°F
 Monday Night
Winds: SW 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  E 2-3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Friday Morning
Winds: SE 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  77°F-80°F
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Winds: SE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Winds:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Night
Winds: S-SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  E 3-4 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: SE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Aug 17-21, 2015
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2015, 05:32:19 PM »
Heavy rains will move into the area tonight bringing chances of flooding and flash flooding. NWS PHI has issued a briefing for more information:

NWS PHI Wed/Thurs Heavy Rains Briefing


 

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