NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition:Aug 31-Sep 4, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

Heat and humidity return this week with a mostly settled weather pattern with some unsettled water conditions, especially for the end of the week. Conditions look mostly dry this week with some very scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms all week, especially for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if an isolated or scattered storm pops up on Monday or Tuesday, either. Patchy fog is possible most of the week as well, in the early morning and late night hours. As a heat wave hits the area, highs will be in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s inland with low to mid 80’s at the shore. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60’s across northern areas to mid 60’s to low 70’s inland and at the shore. Dew points will be in the upper 60’s to lower, even mid 70’s this week, making humidity high and uncomfortable and heat indices pushing the mid to upper 90’s inland. Remember to take precautions with the heat, especially children, elderly, the sick and pets. Water conditions are all over the place this week and the models have not agreed, especially towards the end of the week. I was not able to pinpoint the reason for such a contrast in data. Rivers and bays look good most of the week, minus Monday for some locations which may be borderline to cautious, mainly for seas, although winds could reach 20 knots. Inshore ocean waters will be borderline to cautious through Wednesday mainly for seas 3 to 4 feet with some gusty winds to 20 knots. Thursday conditions look to be good and then Friday conditions will be borderline to cautious again, with winds possible to 25 knots and seas to 5 feet with SCA. This is the day not everything is agreeing, so hopefully, in the next couple of days these forecasts will come into line. Midshore to offshore looks cautious, then borderline to cautious, then good, then cautious again. Despite these forecast conditions, I don’t think the week is a blow out and many of the borderline days, even some of the cautious days due to seas, will be ok for many trying to get out. This week is just very mixed and on the cusp of good and not good and conditions could change during the day, so knowing what could be is important. Also, pop up thunderstorms are possible as well. Surf and beach conditions will start off ok to cautious with seas 2-4 feet on Monday and a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday look good with mainly a Low Risk of Rip Currents and wave heights 1-3 feet. Friday will see some increased winds and surf heights 3-5 feet with Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents. Water temperatures look steady, however, most of the buoy data and tide predictions at NOAA are not reporting or are having some type of technical difficulties all week, so I cannot obtain specific readings. UV Index will be Moderate to Very High at 5-8/15.

A weakening cold front will arrive Sunday Night, otherwise high pressure will remain centered near the Mid Atlantic Region through much of the week. A weak cold front should move south through the region on Thursday Night or Friday. High pressure will then return along the Eastern New England Coast through Sunday, possibly providing a little relief from the heat this weekend.

The weekend will continue to be hot and humid with dry conditions. The weekend may get some relief by a few degrees and some less humidity. Highs will be in the 80’s with overnight lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be cautious on Saturday and improving into Sunday.

The Tropics are active still. Erika was eroded, much like Danny, by wind shear, dry air and land (Hispaniola and Cuba). The system is still a low pressure system moving into the GOM. Erika could strengthen, however regardless, Erika is going to bring some rain to Florida and from there will most likely enter the Southern States. Fred has formed directly off of Africa and is threatening the Cape Verde Islands. It will likely strengthen from a Tropical Storm into a Hurricane, but should not pose a threat to the US at all, as it will stay out at sea. History has been made today in the Pacific with 3 Category 4 Hurricanes simultaneously!

Have a great week and thanks for reading! Sorry for the delay…

Monday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, Patchy fog early morning and late night
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:    Upper 80’s to low 90’s inland, low to mid 80’s at the shore
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with low 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  5-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:23am
Sunset: 7:31pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Sunny then mostly clear, Patchy fog late night
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to mid 90’s inland, mid 80’s at the shore
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with low 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:23am
Sunset: 7:30pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy, Patchy fog late
Precipitation:  0%-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 90’s inland, low 80’s at the shore
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with mid 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  5-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:24am
Sunset: 7:28pm


Thursday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy, Patchy fog late
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to low 90’s inland, low to mid 80’s at the shore
Low:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  5-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:25am
Sunset: 7:26pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy, Patchy fog late
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to low 90’s inland, upper 70’s to mid 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low to upper 60’s
UV Index:  5-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:26am
Sunset: 7:25pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Monday & Tuesday Severe Weather Risks




Atlantic Tropics



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  °F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots diminishing to 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5 knots increasing to 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming SW in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming E
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  °F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 3 to 3 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  °F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5  feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  °F
Monday
Wind:  WSW 10-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  WSW 6-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  WNW 5-8 knots becoming ESE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming S 8-13 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SSE 5-7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variables winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming E
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  °F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  °F
Monday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming NW late in the morning, then E in the early afternoon, then SE late
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Winds: NW 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Winds: S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  °F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: S 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: W 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
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*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)