NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition:Sep 28-Oct 2, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A very unsettled week with clouds and rain most of the week and cautious to hazardous water conditions. You can’t win them all…and eventually, the sunny and dry conditions had to break. However, the week will not be a complete washout from rain, although it might help ease the abnormally dry/drought conditions throughout the state a little. Pretty much, every day this week will have some chances of showers with Tuesday and Wednesday the greatest chances of rain. Tuesday and Wednesday will see the greatest chances of widely scattered to widespread and more organized showers, maybe even a thunderstorm mixed in. The rest of the week will have isolated to scattered, maybe some widely scattered showers with the low chance of thunderstorms as well. Statewide could see 2-3 inches of rain accumulation for the week. Roll this into the weekend with the potential of a coastal storm and moisture coming out of the deep South, and statewide, rain could top 4 inches with locally heavier amounts. Highs will start off warmer and more humid in the 60’s to upper 70’s with overnight lows in the 50’s and 60’s. By midweek highs will be back down into the 60’s with overnight lows in the 40’s to low 60’s and drier air and less humidity as a cold front moves through. Water conditions will be mainly cautious to hazardous all week. Some rivers and bays may be good in pockets on Monday and Tuesday. However, ocean waters, despite low winds on Monday and Tuesday will still have seas to 6 feet. Winds will increase on Wednesday through the weekend, with winds to 30+ knots and seas to 15 feet. By the weekend, winds could top 50 knots with seas hitting 20+ feet inshore on the ocean. Overall, another blowout week with dangerous ocean conditions!! Surf and beach conditions will be cautious to hazardous as well. Monday and Tuesday may fall into the ok category and despite ratings, many will still fish. Just remember surf will be dangerous and rough, with wave heights starting at 3-4 feet and maxing out at 15 feet by the week’s end and increasing into the weekend. Rip Current Risk will be High! Tides will run slightly higher and then much higher by the end of the week. Water temperatures are again a couple to a few degrees cooler, still in the 60’s. UV Index will be Low to High at 0-6/15.

High pressure will retreat farther into the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday Night, allowing a weak disturbance to drift northward on Monday. A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday before moving into the area Tuesday Night. The front will likely slow down while moving through the area, as a  wave of low pressure develops along the boundary on Wednesday. High pressure build in from the north, while the front stalls just to the south on Wednesday Night and Thursday. Another area of low pressure may develop along the stationary front either late this week or next weekend.

The weekend looks to be a continuation of the week with chances of showers more on Saturday, but possibly lingering into Sunday. Highs will be in the 60’s to low 70’s with overnight lows in the 40’s to 50’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be hazardous, as a low pressure system moves up the coast and off to the northeast. This system will bring winds to 50 knots and seas over 20 feet on the ocean. Dangerous conditions will persist through the weekend and above normal tides could cause coastal flooding and some effects from the system may be felt inland. This will all be something to watch and update by midweek or so.

The Tropics are active still. Ida is still floundering out there in the Atlantic. Two more invests are being watched. One invest is in the GOM and the other off of the East Coast. Both systems could affect the area. The GOM system could eventually move inland and bring rain to the area (which could help with the drought and abnormally dry statuses for the state). The East Coast system will move to the north/northeast and will bring the hazardous water conditions. Depending on the track, more or less effects could be felt inland as well. More to follow as the week progresses…

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy to cloudy, Fog early morning
Precipitation:  20% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:    Mid to upper 70’s
Low:   Mid to upper 60’s
UV Index:  4-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:49am
Sunset: 6:46pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-70% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 70’s
Low:   Low to upper 60’s
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:50am
Sunset: 6:44pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-70% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Low to mid 50’s inland, upper 50’s to low 60’s at the shore, mid 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  0-3/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:51am
Sunset: 6:42pm


Thursday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 60’s
Low:   Low to mid 50’s with mid 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:52am
Sunset: 6:41pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-50% chance of showers
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 60’s
Low:   Low to mid 50’s with mid 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  4-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:53am
Sunset: 6:39pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Severe Weather Risks Tuesday & Wednesday




Atlantic Tropics









Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet building to 2-3 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  5-7 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 15-20 knots becoming NE 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  5-7 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  6-10 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NE 15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  6-10 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  6-10 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  6-10 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-7 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-7 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SE 6 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-9 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-9 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-12 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  E 10 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-12  feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  65°F
Monday
Wind:  E 9-11 knots
Seas:  3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  E 7 knots
Seas:  3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less
Surf:  1-2 feet, then 0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SE 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  ESE 5-7 knots becoming WSW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 13-17 knots with gusts to 23 knots
Seas:  1 foot building to 3 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet, then 1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NNE 18-20 knots with gusts to 26 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 22 knots with gust 30 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  71°F
Monday Morning
Winds: E 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 24 to 32 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-12 feet
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 24 to 32 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-12 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  E 10 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  6-12 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  E 11 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  7-15 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  70°F-73°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 10-15 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, Fog in the morning
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  E 10 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  4-6 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 20-25 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 20 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 20 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 20 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-4 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  67°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 9 second
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 26 to 35 knots
Seas:  ESE 9 feet at 10 seconds
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  E 14 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 27 to 36 knots
Seas:  ENE 13 feet at 10 seconds
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 27 to 36 knots
Seas:  E 13 feet at 10 seconds
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 30 to 40 knots
Seas:  ENE 14 feet at 10 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Here is a link to the coastal storm forecast for the end of the week/weekend. This is now officially a tropical depression, soon to be Tropical Storm Joaquin.

Tropical Depression #11

[Pfishingruven]

Here is a quick outline/reinforcement of the flooding potentials I noted in the Outlook. Coastal tidal flooding is one of the bigger threats and forecast guidance is suggesting tides running 1-2+ feet above High Astronomical Tide levels.

NWS PHI Briefing #1 Flooding Potentials

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the NWS OKX/New York City's Briefing for heavy rain and potential flooding events this week. NWS NYC covers Raritan Bay/New York Harbor, Sandy Hook east along Long Island as well as Northeastern NJ Counties.

NWS NYC Briefing #1 Potential Flooding

[Pfishingruven]

For anyone awake, widespread rain has started across the state. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion has been issued for the state indicating areas of 3 inches of rain per hour. This could lead to flash flooding and inland flooding conditions.

Western NJ has some Flood Advisories and additional flood advisories, watches and warnings are possible. If you reside in a flood prone area be very aware of changing conditions. Flash flooding can happen anywhere, especially low lying roadways. REMEMBER, "Turn Around, Don't Drown!" Never drive through standing water, as it could be deeper or swifter than it appears. Also, have a way of receiving weather alerts over the next several days.

Be safe!!



WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #532



WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #533

[Pfishingruven]

It is a very active weather week. Ahead of any potential tropical systems, there are several fronts and lows moving through the area. They will bring rains, heavy at times with several inches possible, high winds 25-35 MPH with gusts 55-60 MPH, high seas, rough surf, higher than normal tides, possible coastal flooding and beach erosion. AND this is all before we even discuss, now, Hurricane Joaquin (forecasts have changed every 6 hours and still not much agreement. Joaquin will not affect the area until late Sunday/early Monday and then into Monday and Tuesday now, if it affects the area at all. Update to follow sometime after 8PM or so).

The biggest threat this week is from coastal flooding. Thursday will begin minor coastal flooding with moderate coastal flooding on Friday and moderate to major coastal flooding on Saturday. Again, this will be independent of any tropical system storm surge. Tides will be 3-4 feet above normal. This could mean anywhere from 6-9+ feet of water being pushed into the coast and bays. So, if you live in flood prone areas from tidal flooding, consider that tides will be 3-4 feet above normal.

Inland flooding and flash flooding will also be a concern as heavy rains and precipitation amounts pushing 8 inches or more. Again, if you are in low lying areas, are prone to flooding from rains or are in an area that has experienced flash flooding, there is a high likelihood that you will see flooding this week.

A variety of advisories, watches and warnings have been issued for the state and surrounding marine waters. Here is a link to the many products issued and active.

I will update any specific threats daily and have the complete weekend outlook (which will be more rain, wind, high seas, and coastal flooding) out by tomorrow.

Again, if you have any questions, concerns, confusion...please let me know.

Below is the latest Briefing from NWS PHI. Again, these numbers are in advance of any tropical systems/Joaquin. Also, tide forecasts for Sandy Hook, Atlantic City and Cape May are below. These are set with Mean Low Low Water at 0 feet.

Be safe!!

NJ Advisories, Watches, & Warnings

NWS PHI Briefing #3 Flooding & Rains